Score one for Craig.

http://therocket.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/06/nationals_agree_to_terms_with.html

I spent the last few days in Florida watching a lot of baseball, mainly summer showcase leagues for kids wanting a college scholarship or, less likely, a pro draft pick. I also got to see the Detroit v Astros Rookie League game.

Which leads up to the folloowing points:

1) I saw AJ Cole, who Keith Law calls the number 1 pitching prospect for the 2010 draft. The kid is 17, a rising senior, and throws 94-96.

2) The thing is, he throws. He isn’t a pitcher. I got to see the rookie league guys. The difference in polish, precision, and repeatability is amazing. Watching them work the strike zone, up down, in out, at will with their standard 3 pitch (fastball, slider, changeup) was remarkable. Nobody exceeded 91 on the gun, yet the game ended 2-1.

3) And that’s why baseball drafting is so hard. The top pitcher drafted in 2010 won’t be major league ready when he’s drafted, unlike football or basketball. He may not be ready for years, if ever. And the top hitters won’t be ready either. They won’t be able to hit rookie ball pitching. Their swings, due to aluminum bats, are almost universally too long. And their muscle development is nowhere near complete. Most fundamentally, they’ve never seen, even once, the kind of movement that major league pitchers throw.

That’s why I love baseball. It’s so hard to master. And so beautiful to watch when played well.