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Monday, May 18, 2009
The 1992 Expansion Draft RevisitedGreat stuff from Lar at Wezen-Ball, as he goes back to 1992 and re-runs the Marlns/Rockies expansion draft with the benefit of hindsight and adds a couple of choice free agent signings for good measure:
What is the Internet good for, though, if we can't take the time to figure this out ourselves? So I did just that. Using the expansion draft rules as explained on Wikipedia, a list of active rosters from 1992 and 1993 from Retrosheet, and a "leaked" list of the protected players published in the November 13, 1992, issue of USA Today, I set about running the "perfect" draft. Instead of each team always choosing the best player available at the given draft spot, the teams would choose the player who would best fit in on that particular club. It was also important to consider the limitations of the draft when making these choices so that both teams could get the best possible lineup available. Finally, I only did the first round of the draft, since it was hard enough making those 26 picks in the first place. I also allowed each team to sign a couple of free agents, though I limited signings to players who I judged might be willing to move to an expansion city. Maybe it's arbitrary, but it seemed necessary since there was no way that Greg Maddux or Barry Bonds or Kirby Puckett would ever have landed in Colorado or Florida. A list of available free agents was compiled using Retrosheet's transactions database.
He has lots of spreadsheets and stuff to back it all up. It's really quite thorough and enjoyable. Best part: Jim Edmonds, Colorado Rockies centerfielder.
On a personal level, I so wish it would have happened the way Lar has it going, because I really think that the 1993 and 1996-2003 playoff runs would have ended far differently for Atlanta if they had the benefit of David Nied.
Posted by Craig Calcaterra at 2:00pm
Levi Stahl said...
I suppose I could get all math-y about it, but as a Jim Edmonds fan and a lazy person, I’ll just assumg that had he played half his games in Denver, Jimmy would have hit eleventy-billion home runs.
But he probably wouldn’t have ever become a Cardinal, so I guess I’ll gladly take this reality.
Posted 05/18 at 02:15 PM
I always wonder what would have happened if the Marlins had won the coin flip and gotten David Nied. I know, TINSTAAPP, but he was a really good pitcher in the minors. At the same time, this was the period when you had to assume that the Braves knew what they were doing.
Posted 05/18 at 05:27 PM
Mark Armour said...
At the 1999 SABR convention in West Palm Beach, Dave Dombroski made a presentation where he walked us through this draft selection-by-selection, actuallty revealing who was available and who different teams protected and withdrew as the draft went along. It was truly fascinating.
Posted 05/19 at 12:20 AM
Greg Simons said...
I’m with Levi on both counts. Jim Edmonds may have show-boated at times, but he sure did it well.
Posted 05/19 at 08:05 AM