Major League Baseball Needs to Expand

Editor’s Note: This is the fifth in a 10-part series commemorating baseball’s new commissioner with advice for his tenure. To read more about this series, click here.

Baseball expansion has always been part of the game. As the United States population has expands, so does the number of professional baseball teams. But this trend has been on hold since 1998, when the Diamondbacks and the then-named Devil Rays joined the league. The time between expansions is now tied for the longest in post-World War II history at 17 years. It is time for Major League Baseball to actively begin trying to expand again, because the game is getting stale and mediocre.

Adding teams is not going to happen overnight. Who knows what legal ramifications will stand in the way? Television rights with huge contracts. Stubborn owners and/or players who don’t want to share their part of the financial pie. We all understand that the commissioner can’t just put two teams in Las Vegas and Des Moines (don’t laugh, Iowans are already starved for baseball with the current TV blackout rules) and call it good. The number of parties involved will be insane, but the process should begin now so in a few years expansion can happen.

Let me start with some simple facts on post-World War II, post-segregation, expansion. Here are the seasons in which MLB expanded and the number of teams added:

MLB Expansion Since 1960

Year	Teams Added	Total Teams
1960 (start)	0	16
1961	2	18
1962	2	20
1969	4	24
1976	2	26
1993	2	28
1998	2	30

The number of teams slowly increased, with the average span for adding a new team being about every two years. Maybe the the majors are at the right size. Maybe baseball has stopped growing because the United States has stopped growing. Let me step through the available talent pool of possible players by looking at the U.S population, starting in 1965 and looking forward. Baseball was not fully integrated in 1965, but it was getting there. Here is a graph of the U.S population (in 10 million increments) and the number of major league teams from 1965 to 2014.

In 2013, there were 10.5 million people per team, up from a low of 8.5 million in 1969 and 1977, from which to pull talent and fans. The overall interest in baseball among the U.S. general population has not been the same over the time frame. Basketball and football are now becoming the sports of choice among some athletes, especially minorities. But the influx of foreign-born players has easily made up for the lack of interest among American-born athletes, starting in earnest with Caribbean and Central American countries the mid-1970s and Asia starting in in the late 1990s. Additionally, the elite Cuban players are finding their way to American baseball again. So there are plenty of people in the pool.

So, now that we’ve established that expansion hasn’t happened recently like it used to, and that there are still enough people in the country to support expansion if done properly, let’s tackle the why — why should there be expansion? One reason is the run scoring environment. Run production has dropped from from a steroid-era high of 5.1 runs per game per team in 2000 to 4.1 last season. Pitching is now the dominant force in the game. The last four times the majors expanded, runs increased as the pitching talent was spread thinner. Looking at the two seasons before an expansion of teams and the two seasons after, the average increase in runs scored per game was a third of a run. Without expansion and if things remain static, scoring will likely go even lower as pitching talent becomes more and more concentrated.

The current run environment is not horrible, but what if it gets even lower? Strikeouts are boring. They help to win games, but they make for a horrible viewing experience. Everyone digs the long ball. Maybe MLB will do something like lower the mound again or allow aluminum bats or shrink the out of control strike zone, but the concentration of talent will still exist. It is time to spread baseball out some more.

Now, what follows is a matter of opinion. Some people may not see a lack of talent diversity as a problem, but I find it boring, like the NFL. Every team is a contender to the end. Everyone is the same. Evenly played baseball leads to fewer trades since so many teams believe they have a chance to make the playoffs (see the 2014 Royals and Giants). If almost every team is going for a playoff spot, fewer will be looking to dump salary and play for the future. This leads to mediocre teams, and mediocre memories. With expansion, you’ll have more action at the trade deadline, and perhaps even before it.

Without expansion, which spreads out talent, memorable individual seasons will become fewer and fewer. The two most memorable home run races in baseball history, Maris–Mantle in ’61 and McGwire–Sosa in ’98, happened in expansion seasons in part because the pitching talent was thinner. Having those great memories is what baseball is all about.

Two teams should be added as quickly as possible. Four additional teams should be added after those two. The six additional teams helps to regain the ratio of teams to U.S. population as it was in the past. Until 2008, the ratio of teams to every 10 million people in the U.S. population was less than one (see graph above). Right now the ratio is at 1.05. Using some future population projections from The World DataBank, the ratio will be at 1.11 in 2020 and 1.15 in 2025. By adding two teams by 2020 the ratio drops to 1.04 and by adding four more teams by 2025 it is back under 1.0. The need for teams can be then re-evaluated. I know it will be nearly impossible for MLB to add six teams over the next 10 years, but they need to start now as the ratio will continue to increase.

There is another reason why getting to at least 32 teams is important. Adding two teams will finally put an even number of teams in each league. When that happens, we can ditch the daily slog of Interleague games. Seriously, who likes that? Teams fighting for division titles are more likely to be playing each other at the end of the season. The major league structure could go to four or eight divisions, with an even number of teams in each one. Or just one division in each league would have six teams. Anything would work better than the current set-up, with an odd number of teams in each league.

After the first two are added, baseball should start moving toward adding four more teams. This is where the structure looks like the current format with but with six teams in each division. The current playoff format could be maintained with three division winners and two wild cards.

These new teams need cities to call home and this is where expansion will run into the biggest roadblocks. Teams don’t like giving up their areas of control, but a strong commissioner can persuade everyone to come together and move forward.

It is not going to be easy, especially with the Athletics and Rays already looking to relocate. Some possible new locations: in California near Sacramento, in Texas at Austin and San Antonio. Brooklyn or north New Jersey, if you can get the Yankees and Mets to play ball (good luck with that). It might be time to finally move a team to Las Vegas … maybe. The South is lacking for teams, with Charlotte, Nashville, Memphis or Louisville being possibilities. Also another team could be in Canada, with Montreal getting a long look.

MLB also has to try Mexico and Puerto Rico. I understand the reservations, but baseball is popular in both locations already and the whole country or island would get 100 percent behind a team. The new team’s popularity would be ballooned by interest in the States from expats.

The key to expansion is for an initial understanding and acceptance that more teams will be coming. Start by cleaning up the messes in Oakland and Tampa-St. Petersburg. Next, set up a committee. Have Joe Torre head it since he heads all MLB committees. It doesn’t have to really “do” anything, but it lets people know there may be changes. Pick a list of possible sites (here’s a start) and start working through the roadblocks. Maybe in 10 years or so, the first couple of teams can start playing and spreading out the range of MLB talent pool. Delaying expansion just makes it harder to eventually implement.

MLB is about to enter its longest stretch since World War II without expansion, and no plans exist for such a change in the future. The notion of eventual expansion to 36 teams needs to start immediately. It will take time to find some sites on which enough people can agree. Meanwhile, baseball will chug on in a state of mediocre play. Some people may like all teams playing around .500, but 20 years from now it will likely be called the third Dead Ball Era. So my plea to incoming commissioner Rob Manfred: Expand the number of teams as soon as possible.