12-team, mixed-league, roto league
Hitting: AVG, OBP, R, HR, RBI, SB
Pitching: ERA, WHIP, W, K, SV
C: Geovany Soto
1B: Miguel Cabrera
2B: Robinson Cano
3B: David Wright
SS: Ryan Theriot
OF: Bobby Abreu
OF: Carlos Gonzalez
OF: Shin-Shoo Choo
Util: Adam Dunn
Util: Franklin Gutierrez
bench: Nyjer Morgan
SP: Justin Verlander, David Price, Tommy Hanson, James Shields
RP: Jonathan Broxton, Carlos Marmol, Chad Qualls, Sean Marshall, Luke Gregerson
Spot Starters: Ted Lilly, Kevin Slowey
“My lead has been up to 26 points, and currently am steady for a couple of weeks at 15-20 points ahead of second place. The question is, should I trade a pitcher for a hitter, hitter for pitcher, any advice? I’m considering trading Price for Justin Upton, thoughts? Or, should I follow my gut and hold tight.”
Justin Upton is a special player, but your league double counts plate disciple, in a sense, with batting average and OBP. Upton’s been a disappointment this season as far as those categories are concerned and shows no signs of reversion to his higher pre-season forecasts. He’s swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone and fewer inside the zone and making less contact.
David Price will revert to something closer to his forecasts – that ERA is going to rise above 3.00 eventually. But reverting to forecasts doesn’t mean that he’s going to sink below his forecasts either. So you’re still looking at about a 3.70 ERA going forward with about a 1.25 WHIP and plenty of strikeouts.
Upton could be worth much more. But do you need it? Where are you most vulnerable in your standings? Ted Lilly is an able replacement for Price, should you trade him. If you can also pick up another solid pitcher on the waiver wire for insurance – someone on the Padres for instance – then I’d think harder about the trade. Your league doesn’t have huge lineups, particularly batting, so you want to minimize weak spots as much as possible. Gutierrez is a bit of liability for such a shallow league. Upton is a bit risky and Dunn has been good but a bit down on his norm for OBP and more so for Abreu. So you may not want to expose yourself in those stats if you’re in danger of losing many points there. But if the replacement for Price/Lilly is tastier than the waiver-wire replacement for Gutierrez, I’d think about the trade.