The All-Expansion Team World Series

Daniel Murphy helped propel the Mets to the first ever all-expansion team World Series. (via Arturo Pardavila III)

In 1901, baseball as we know it was born when the American League joined the National League to form America’s two major leagues. Over the decades, the sport has undergone numerous changes from free agency to the designated hitter rule, but the overall consistency of the sport since the turn of the 20th century is remarkable: 90 feet between the bases, three strikes you’re out, and, well, pretty much the entire first 15 minutes of Ken Burns’ Baseball. As a result, if we were mystically granted the ability to watch a game with our great-great-grandfathers, they’d mostly be able to follow along. In my estimation, baseball’s ability to provide common ground across generations is one of the more incredible and valuable aspects of the sport.

Of baseball’s many constants throughout the years, one of the more prominent has been its franchises.  The American League brought eight charter franchises into the major leagues in 1901, a perfect match for the National League’s eight. City names and team nicknames have changed—the Washington Senators are now the Minnesota Twins, the Brooklyn Superbas are now the Los Angeles Dodgers, etc.—but the Original 16 franchises have all survived to the present day.

ORIGINAL 16 FRANCHISES

American League		National League
1901 Name	Modern Name	1901 Name	Modern Name
Baltimore Orioles	New York Yankees	Boston Beaneaters	Atlanta Braves
Boston Americans	Boston Red Sox	Brooklyn Superbas	Los Angeles Dodgers
Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	Chicago Orphans	Chicago Cubs
Cleveland Blues	Cleveland Indians	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds
Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	New York Giants	San Francisco Giants
Milwaukee Brewers	Baltimore Orioles	Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Athletics	Oakland Athletics	Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates
Washington Senators	Minnesota Twins	St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals

Two years after the birth of the AL/NL structure, the first modern World Series pitted the National League champion against its American League counterpart. Over the next 57 years, the World Series was guaranteed to feature one of the American League’s eight original franchises facing off against one of the National League’s eight.

Then, in 1961, expansion began. Between 1961 and 1998, 14 expansion franchises joined the Original 16 to form the 30-team major league structure in place today.

The first year of expansion was contained to just the American League, but since 1962 it’s been a two-league venture. Therefore, since the 2015 World Series is the 53rd series to coexist with expansion in both leagues, it is the 53rd time two expansion teams could conceivably meet in the World Series. Yet there was never a Fall Classic held without one of those Original 16 franchise represented until now.

Consequently, the Mets meeting the Royals in the World Series is a historic match-up before it even begins. Never before had two expansion franchises won their league’s pennant in the same year. And yet it feels somewhat absurd to call the Mets (established 1962) and Royals (est. 1969) expansion teams. There are grandparents younger than the Mets and Royals franchises. The Mets are now tied with the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians, two Original 16 franchises, for World Series appearances with five and the Royals are just a step behind with four appearances. This World Series is not witnessing two league newbies facing off; the Mets and Royals are storied franchises with rich histories full of Hall of Famers, memorable victories and crushing defeats. So how has it taken this long for such a match-up to occur?

To say it’s unlikely that it’s taken this long is to dramatically understate. Under the current 30-team structure with 15 teams in each league, there is roughly a 21.8 percent (7^2/15^2) probability of two expansion franchises matching up in the Fall Classic. Of course this is only the fourth postseason under the current system. Here’s what the chances of an all-expansion team World Series have looked like since two-league expansion first began in 1962:

PROBABILITY OF ALL-EXPANSION WORLD SERIES

Year	# AL Teams (# Expansion)	# NL Teams (# Expansion)	Probability
1962-1968	10 (2)	10 (2)	4.0%
1969-1976	12 (4)	12 (4)	11.1%
1977-1992	14 (6)	12 (4)	14.3%
1993-1997	14 (6)	14 (6)	18.4%
1998-2011	14 (6)	16 (8)	21.4%
2012-pres	15 (7)	15 (7)	21.8%

These probability figures are overly simplistic in that they assume that at the start of each season every team has an equal chance to make the World Series. With talent carryover and sustained runs of excellence like the Reds and A’s dynasties in the ‘70s or the turn-of-the-century Yankees, we know this not to be true. Expansion teams were so disadvantaged in their early years that in the first eight seasons (1961-1968) for the new Washington Senators (now Texas Rangers) and Los Angeles Angels and first seven seasons (1962-1968) for the New York Mets and Houston Astros, the four teams combined for exactly one finish above fifth place in their 10-team divisions—the Angels finished third in 1962. That makes what happened in 1969 extraordinary.

Four new franchises were added in 1969 and each league split into two divisions for the first time. The Mets won 100 games to take the NL East title and become the first expansion team to make the playoffs. They defeated the Atlanta Braves in the first-ever National League Championship Series and were famously given the “Miracle Mets” moniker after they went on to defeat the 109-win Baltimore Orioles and become the first expansion team to win a title. Remarkably, it would be another 16 years before another expansion team won a championship: The Royals won it all in 1985.

The Original 16 had established relationships and infrastructure which left expansion teams at a marked disadvantage. As a result, in stark opposition to the probabilistic odds, 2015 marked just the eighth time that both the ALCS and NLCS featured an expansion team and an all-expansion team World Series was even a possibility.

The first time the Original 16 could have been shut out from the World Series was in 1980, and it very nearly happened. That year the Royals swept the Yankees three games to none in the ALCS (the LCS was a five-game series until it expanded to seven games in 1985). The NLCS featured the Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros (est. 1962) in what became one of the greatest postseason series in baseball history.

Game 1 of the 1980 NLCS featured a pitchers duel between Ken Forsch and Steve Carlton. The Astros took an early 1-0 lead in the third inning, but the Phillies scored two in the bottom of the sixth and held on to win 3-1. Incredibly, that was the blowout game in the series. The next four games all went into extra innings, with the Astros winning Games Two and Three in the 10th and 11th innings respectively. With a two games to one series lead, the Astros were just one win away from their first trip to the World Series.

Despite a starting pitcher mismatch of Philadelphia’s  Carlton vs. Houston’s Vern Ruhle in Game Four, the Astros found themselves six outs from the World Series with a 2-0 lead into the eighth before Philadelphia came back and won in the 10th to force a decisive Game Five. In a reversal of the pitcher mismatch, the winner-take-all game was started by Houston’s future Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan and Philly’s 21-year-old rookie Marty Bystrom. Once again, the Astros found themselves with a lead in the eighth inning, but this time they had Ryan on the mound. The first all-expansion team World Series was all but inevitable until, of course, the Phillies came back and won in the 10th inning, again, sending an Original 16 franchise to the World Series, again.

The next chance for an all-expansion team World Series came in 1984 when the San Diego Padres (est. 1969) won the National League pennant and the Royals reached the ALCS. But there was no near miss that year, as the Tigers swept the Royals on their way to the World Series. Two years later, however, the baseball world found itself one strike away from the first Original-16-free World Series.

By 1986, the LCS had become a seven-game affair. The Mets defeated the Astros in six to win the National League pennant and in the ALCS, the California Angels put together a three games to one lead on the Boston Red Sox. In the potential Game Five clincher, the Angels took a 5-2 lead into the ninth  inning. Angels pitcher Mike Witt yielded a two-run home run to Don Baylor, but retired Jim Rice and Dwight Evans, leaving the Angels clinging to a 5-4 lead one out away from a pennant. Angels reliever Gary Lucas hit Sox catcher Rich Gedman with a pitch, which brought Dave Henderson to the plate and closer Donnie Moore to the mound. Moore got a 2-2 count on Henderson, putting the Angles just one strike away from the World Series, only for Henderson to crush a home run and give the Red Sox the lead.

The Angels tied it in the bottom of the ninth, but a second Henderson/Moore showdown in the 11th inning resulted in a sac fly which ultimately gave the Red Sox the victory. The Sox went on to win Games Six and Seven easily, and it would be another 14 years before expansion teams reached both the ALCS and NLCS again.

The 1990s were notably dominated by Original 16 teams thanks to dynastic runs from the Yankees and Braves, so perhaps it isn’t surprising that the next threat for an all-expansion team World Series was delayed until the turn of the century. The National League sent the Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks (est. 1998) to the World Series in 2000 and 2001, both years in which the Seattle Mariners (est. 1977) and New York Yankees faced off in the ALCS. Unfortunately for Seattle, a brilliant 2000 ALCS by Alex Rodriguez (.409/.480/.773) went for naught and New York took the series in six games. The following year, the Mariners recorded the most regular season wins in major league history with 116, only to meet another crushing defeat at the hands of the Yankees, this time in five games.

The last two opportunities for Original 16 World Series exclusion were just as fruitless. In 2005, the White Sox took the Angels in five for a World Series date with the Astros and in 2011 the Cardinals defeated the Milwaukee Brewers (est. 1969) in six to set up their extraordinary 2011 World Series triumph over the Texas Rangers. Which brings us back to 2015.

This year, five of the American League’s six playoff teams were expansion franchises, which meant an expansion team was guaranteed to take the pennant as soon as the New York Yankees lost the Wild Card game. The National League’s five playoff teams, however, featured four Original 16 franchises and the New York Mets. The only way for this extraordinary streak to fall this year was for the Mets to be the last ones standing in the National League. If not for a Ruthian October from Daniel Murphy perhaps the wait would continue, but on the backs of Murphy and a brilliant starting rotation, the first all-expansion team World Series is finally here.

Where do we go next? Will the all-expansion team World Series become commonplace? Does our future have more Mariners/Marlins Fall Classics than Cardinals/Yankees ones? Given the still extraordinary financial and organizational strengths of Original 16 franchises like the Yankees, Cardinals and Dodgers, it’s hard to imagine this Royals/Mets match-up marks the beginning of the end for the dominance of the Original 16, but only time will tell. All I know for certain is that a quirky streak has met its seemingly inevitable end and for the first time ever, neither team we watch compete for the World Championship is directly related to the teams our great-great-grandfathers watched. Fortunately, on the off chance Great-Great-Gramps stops by for a game, we’ll always have 90 feet in common.

References & Resources

• Baseball-Reference