The daily grind: 4-23-13

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today’s grind

Two snow outs yesterday have turned into two double headers today. Teams with same day moves should adjust accordingly.

Pitcher (to start): Half the guys I tabbed for today have rain in the forecast, and I usually try to avoid those starts.

That leaves Patrick Corbin as my top pick of the day. I own him outright in a couple leagues, including a fairly shallow one.

I like Zach McAllister‘s skill set and usually expect him to hold his own. There is rain in the forecast for this game, too, but I think they’ll get it in without major delays. Still that makes this a second string choice.

Tony Cingrani is exciting, but his ownership is now up to 51 percent.

Kevin Correia still gets to face the Marlins, so he’s still a fringe option to start.

Pitcher (bum): Jeff Francis rides over from yesterday to today. Despite the cold, I think it’s hard not to expect big offense out of the Braves.

I mentioned Jeff Locke yesterday, but the Phillies offense is pretty lackluster. So while they might put up five runs, don’t expect the huge outburst required to win in daily fantasy.

The Brewers, however, have a great offensive blueprint and a favorable match-up against Clayton Richard.

I feel similarly about Jason Vargas‘ start. Both Vargas and Richard are mediocre lefties who leave little margin for error.

Julio Teheran at Coors Field is not a recipe for good pitching results.

Hitter (power):
There are some great power options including Juan Francisco against Jon Garland, Chris Johnson against Francis, John Mayberry versus Locke, and Matt Joyce against Phil Hughes.

Hitter (speed): This list is shorter. Try Craig Gentry against Vargas.

If you want to roll the dice, I’d hazard a guess that a double header should equal a usually unpredictable start for Eric Young. Or at least two pinch running opportunities.

Tomorrow’s grind

Pitcher (to start): Tomorrow is not a day to stream starters. Wandy Rodriguez is 59 percent owned, but he’s floating around a couple of my leagues. A match-up against the Phillies is favorable.

Ted Lilly is today’s dice throw. I wouldn’t touch this start, but I don’t have too much to point at right now.

Pitcher (bum): There are at least a few exploitable match-ups that stand out.

Edinson Volquez against the Brewers stands out the most given his early season command issues.

Luis Mendoza is the kind of mediocre pitcher the Tigers feast upon.

The Orioles, Rockies, and Angels are currently starting TBA and he usually isn’t very good. I suspect the Rockies will be using Drew Pomeranz here, and he might actually be worth streaming.

Hitter (power): I like when Chris Carter gets the platoon advantage, like when he faces Joe Saunders.

Jonny Gomes gets to face Brett Anderson so long as Anderson’s sprained ankle doesn’t intervene.

Hold Mayberry; he gets another lefty tomorrow.

Hitter (speed): Andy Dirks has struggled early this season, but his match-up for tomorrow is good. He’s not really a stolen base threat, but he’s probably more likely to steal than to hit a home run.

Will Venable‘s match-up with Marco Estrada isn’t great, but I think that’s where you need to be chasing steals tomorrow if you need them.

Noteworthy news

Jason Heyward had surgery to remove his appendix, so he’ll be out for a bit. Evan Gattis could see a couple of extra starts in the outfield as a result.

The Biogenesis scandal now includes Robinson Cano‘s name, which couldn’t come at a more inopportune time for him. I think every fantasy owner is terrified that their star player could disappear for 50 games, since several big names remain under investigation.

Weather watch

The Rockies’ doubleheader will be cold—right around freezing. It appears rain will affect games played in Detroit, Boston and Chicago. The forecast for the White Sox appears to be the least likely to result in delays or postponement.

Good enough for me

Felix Doubront weaved in and out of traffic yesterday and survived his outing with a win.

Today, I’ll briefly cover Pat Corbin, whom I’ve liked since he arrived on the scene last season.

Corbin has a reliable four-pitch mix—two fastballs, a slider, and a change-up—and he’s throwing about one mph harder this season. Over time, I would expect a very slight improvement in strikeout rate to about 7.5 K/9 with about a 3.0 BB/9. He generates a reasonable amount of ground balls, which is important for a pitcher in Arizona.

Over the course of a full season, I expect an ERA around 4.00. Carefully managed, especially to avoid starts at Coors Field and bad match-ups at home, Corbin can probably exceed that expectation and provide average fantasy stats for free.

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Comments

  1. Brad Johnson said...

    I’m nervous about recommending Davis against the Tigers. The top of that offense is just too capable of throwing 3’s and 4’s on the scoreboard. He did survive a deeper lineup last time out and his cutter is generating a lot of value according to linear weights.

    That said, I haven’t seen him pitch yet this year, so I can’t comment on if I think the cutter has transformed him into the kind of guy who can be started against the Tigers.

    Sorry to be vague.

  2. BJ said...

    Thanks for your opinion. I guess I’m asking if you’d start Davis over McAllister or Correia, both of whom are available to me but seem like inferior options.

  3. Brad Johnson said...

    Has to be Davis then. If you have a reasonable choice, stay away from the rain (McAllister) and the anti-strikeout machine (Correia).

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