The daily grind: 4-26-13

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today’s grind

Pitcher (to start): If you’re in a keeper league, Andrew Cashner should probably be owned outright. For redraft leagues, he’s more of a streaming option.

I’ve already taken some flak for recommending Dillon Gee, but I’m going to continue to do so.

Ervin Santana is always going to be a meltdown risk, but opposing Scott Kazmir should increase his odds of winning. Rain in the forecast could shorten his outing.

Wei-Yin Chen is a name I turn to automatically, but as I explained yesterday, there is some reason to be concerned this season.

Pitcher (bum): If the Cardinals don’t run Jonathan Sanchez out of the game early, you will have witnessed some kind of Christmas miracle.

Kazmir will need to learn how to limit hits if he wants to stick in the majors.

Erik Bedard is a solid enough pitcher, but the Astros seem to be easing him into the starting role. The Red Sox should see lots of Astros relievers.

Aaron Harang may be a bit rusty still and the Angels have the kind of offense that capitalizes on rust.

Hitter (power): Lucas Duda against Kyle Kendrick is a must play. Kendrick looks to have consolidated his improvement from last season, but I still expect lefties to hit well.

Daniel Nava has another great match-up in Kazmir.

Carlos Pena will see Ryan Dempster in Fenway.

Hitter (speed): Peter Bourjos should spend some time on the bases tonight.

Craig Gentry might be a better start against Scott Diamond.

Tomorrow’s grind

Pitcher (to start): I’ve seen it theorized that the Yankees are weak against left-handed pitchers. I have not tested that theory, but I like J.A. Happ‘s match-up all the same.

Travis Wood has had a nice start to the season. His peripherals aren’t telling a story of remarkable improvement, but he does face the dreadful Marlins. Even Giancarlo Stanton‘s bat goes to die there…

I feel like I was just recommending Felix Doubront and it’s time to pull out his name again. He faces the Astros.

Pitcher (bum): I don’t even know where to start with exploitable match-ups tomorrow, there’s just so many. Here’s a few names and their opponent.

{exp:list_maker}Jeff Francis – Diamondbacks
Brad Peacock – Red Sox
Ubaldo Jimenez – Royals
Dan Haren – Reds
Rick Porcello – Braves {/exp:list_maker}

Hitter (power): Cody Ross has been quiet thus far, but tomorrow’s match-up might put him back on the radar.

I suppose you should continue holding Daniel Nava.

Looks like a Juan Francisco day.

Try Chris Carter against Doubront. He is a bit home run prone, after all.

Hitter (speed): I’m going to gamble that Rajai Davis both starts against CC Sabathia and also gets a chance to steal a base.

It’s another day for Gentry.

Weather watch

There is an expectation of rain in Missouri, which will affect the Pirates, Cardinals, Indians, and Royals. The games don’t appear likely to be cancelled, but delays and adverse conditions could come into play.

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  1. ABSkippers said...

    Random question – I have Fujikawa stashed, the guy who has Marmol just dropped him, and I have the #1 waiver claim.  I’m not sure I want Marmol on my roster, saves or not, but I could gain several points in the standings with some extra saves.  Should I go ahead and use the claim?  All the best minor leaguers are already in the player pool – what else can I save the claim for?

  2. Brad Johnson said...

    I dislike waiver priority leagues for this reason. Make sure you’re comfortable with ERA and WHIP before committing to Marmol. Personally, I’d rather invest in a David Hernandez type and hope Putz gets hurt.

    I wouldn’t worry too much about saving the priority. It’s too hard to predict if somebody you really want is going to find his way onto waivers.

  3. Fabio said...

    hi there, a question for you: how long should I wait before hitting the panic button on Stanton? Or is it too late already?
    thanks for the valuable infos.

  4. Brad Johnson said...

    Stanton is one of those guys that you SHOULD be able to short sell as a top 30 guy. If you can get a David Wright type for him, do so.

    I usually scoff at lineup protection, but if nobody is getting on base or generating extra base hits, then opposing pitchers have no reason to throw to him.

    Some salient Stanton facts:
    -He’s seeing the fewest pitches in the strike zone of all qualified hitters (34.3%).
    -That’s a year-on-year decline of 7.3% – basically nobody will pitch to him. But…
    -He’s seeing first pitch strikes 64.8% of the time. I have no breakdown on swinging/looking but that’s one of the higher rates in baseball

    Basically, he’s starting most counts in a hole yet he’s hardly ever getting thrown strikes. It’s a bit of a paradox and not one that breeds success.

  5. Brad Johnson said...

    I still recommend selling Stanton by the way. The terribad lineup is going to hurt his fantasy value in many ways. His power outburst over the weekend should help ensure that you land a top player. Try to buy high on a guy like Upton or Harper, both of whom can provide most of Stanton’s home runs with other support for other stat categories.

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