The daily grind: 5-20-13

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today’s grind

Pitcher (to start): Scott Kazmir is currently posting some of the best peripherals of his career. The only blemish is an extremely elevated HR/FB ratio: 21.2 percent of fly balls have left the yard.

Jake Odorizzi will make his first start as a Ray today. He was posting solid numbers in Triple-A, including a strikeout rate above nine per nine innings and a walk rate around three per nine. He may be in the rotation for only a few starts while David Price is out.

In terms of expectations, Odorizzi will probably provide top waiver quality output—something like eight K/9, four BB/9, a 4.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. His ownership could shoot up quickly since he’s a prospect.

I saw Jeremy Guthrie was facing the Astros today and then I saw he’s owned in 61 percent of leagues. I hope about 40 of that 61 percent picked him up as a stream starter, but I know better. Tsk tsk.

Pitcher (bum): There are a couple epic exploits in play for today.

Zach Duke versus Ryan Vogelsong promises fireworks aplenty.

Josh Lindblomt—a relievert—is starting against the A’s today.

Alex Sanabia tends to bend but not break. He’s a good bet to allow four runs on five innings.

Shaun Marcum is coming off his best outing and could be in the process of turning the corner. I’m going to continue betting against him for the time being.

The Yankees should enjoy a reunion with Freddy Garcia.

Hitter (power): Travis Hafner has dropped off his epic pace, but you can try him out against Garcia.

Domonic Brown is a solid play against Sanabia.

Play the Seth Smith and Brandon Moss train today, although they’ll face a mix of righties and lefties.

Hitter (speed):
Eric Young Jr. will start against lefty Patrick Corbin. You may also want to try Gerardo Parra against Jon Garland.

Tomorrow’s grind

Pitcher (to start): Matt Garza is 59 percent owned, but in the leagues where he is not owned, this may be your one shot to scoop him up.

Jose Fernandez barely qualifies for a recommendation at 48 percent owned. He’s done well against the Phillies in two outings and they may be without Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz.

Pitcher (bum):
Go ahead and stack Angels against Aaron Harang.

The Cardinals will face erratic righty Edinson Volquez.

Tyler Cloyd has been roughed up by Triple-A lineups worse than the Marlins all season. For daily league owners, this might be a rare opportunity to lean on the Marlins offense for cheap points.

Mike Pelfrey‘s looking pretty ugly this year. The Braves aren’t likely to go hungry tomorrow.

Hitter (power):
Juan Francisco will bring his hard swing against Pelfrey.

Dan Straily has struggled with command, making him a solid match-up for David Murphy.

Jonny Gomes will get to face another non-elite lefty in Jose Quintana.

Did you know that “the Royals are 5-0 when Wade Davis allows four runs or fewer but 0-3 when he does not.” Thanks Now try Carlos Pena against him.

Hitter (speed):
Kelly Johnson has a good match-up against Ramon Ortiz.

You can hang onto Parra for his start against Jhoulys Chacin.

Noteworthy news

Johnny Cueto is back in action today.

Jurickson Profar has been recalled and will start at second base while Ian Kinsler recovers from bruised ribs. It will likely be a short stint on the disabled list, so don’t cut a key contributor for Profar. Yahoo surprisingly gave him only UTIL eligibility.

Garza will make his first start of the season tomorrow.

Weather watch

Games in Baltimore and Chicago may see isolated storms today, but the weather seems manageable otherwise.

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  1. Brad Johnson said...

    To follow up on Kevin, players of Arcia’s caliber become available all the time.

    My expectations for Odorizzi may be about 10% on the optimistic side. ZiPS projected something like 7 K/9, 4 BB/9, 4.40 ERA, and 1.40 WHIP. I just think he’ll strike out a few extra batters and benefit from the Rays generally excellent defense.

  2. justifyjimmy said...

    Kevin and Brad…. my feeling exactly!  You should of seen the BS comments on my fantasy board, lol. @ one point I had to justify my trade by commenting “yes this was a great trade, thanks for noticing”  dimwits…  dohl!!!! So many people focus on the Catchers rating over the fact of actual RBI output and hits per week??? Why

  3. Will said...

    I don’t know what is more misguided: that I briefly considered Jerome Williams for roto, or that I actually picked up Cloyd in the linear weights league (not sure I’ll actually start him, though).

    Digging deeper, do you ever mention Stubbs against lefties?

  4. ABSkippers said...

    BJ Upton or Chris Young this week for a weekly league?  A’s are @TEX and @HOU, and aside from 1 Darvish start face a slate of mediocre pitchers, although mostly righties so Young may sit once or twice (although BJ’s been sitting too).  Who will be less terrible this week?

  5. Brad Johnson said...

    I haven’t been mentioning Stubbs mostly because I haven’t been tracking his usage patterns.

    I never noticed that career split against lefties, although he’s only got about 500 PA against them.

  6. Brad Johnson said...

    I see the opposite problem with catchers. I couldn’t trade Ryan Doumit for anything despite that his position adjusted, projected value was in the mid-teens for that league. I ultimately had to cut him because I had Santana, Pierz, D’Arnaud, and Zunino (milb roster). Wish I had him back now. Pierz is on the DL, I cut D’Arnaud when he got hurt, and traded Zunino as part of a blockbuster.

  7. Brad Johnson said...

    That’s a fantasy nightmare. Two players who should be playing a lot better based on their peripherals. I would bet on Upton just because he has bigger upside and should be getting more playing time for at least a little longer.

  8. AbSkippers said...

    A not-unrelated Braves question: I was riding Evan Gattis in a daily 12-team mixed keeper league, but it’s obvious he’s going to get limited playing time going forward.  Should I just drop him, or should I hold on for a while and rotate in Avila, Doumit, Jaso, etc on a daily basis as needed.  Grandal is the only guy on the wire who might be a grade above once he comes back.  If I hold on to Gattis though it means I can’t rotate in Mon/Thurs daily plays.

  9. Brad Johnson said...

    I’d probably drop him. You should get more value out of the daily plays for the time being. If the Braves have a corner OFer or McCann get injured soon, this will look like bad advice.

  10. nipitinthe buttdude!!! said...

    issues maybe… I have both RP Chapman and Jim Johnson..Should I be worried? and id so what are decent alternatives?

  11. Brad Johnson said...

    I wouldn’t be too concerned about either pitcher. Johnson’s certainly more concerning given that he outperformed his peripherals by a substantial amount last season.

  12. Will said...

    re: Stubbs, not like I noticed it either until just the other day, but if you have a ton of bench spots to be able to stream RHHs, he seems worth a look. True about the SSS, but it has held for every one of his seasons, and particularly with power the split is quite sharp (double the HRs on a PA basis, pro-rating to 28HR/600PA vs. LHPs)

  13. justifyjimmy said...

    So I traded Yady MO for Prado over the weekend…just felt like the thing to do since I was carrying McCann.. and I pickep up Profar to sit bench duty until I need him..dropped the up and down Arcia for him, hmmmmm??? any comments

  14. Kevin said...

    “In terms of expectations, Odorizzi will probably provide top waiver quality output—something like eight K/9, four BB/9, a 4.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. His ownership could shoot up quickly since he’s a prospect.”

    I’d love to believe that and pick him up, but don’t you think that’s quite optimistic?

    What do I know, I’ve got my leagues worst pitching…I need the starts, so considered Odorizzi, as well as Axelrod (but he’ll lose his 2nd start against MIA to Danks, right?).

    Thought STL would have started Michael Wacha for Jaime Garcia…so now I’m down to deciding between Eric Stults or Rick Porcello.

  15. Kevin said...

    justifyjimmy…Yady for Prado is a good move if you’ve got McCann.  But if you picked up Profar, you might as well start him while he’s up, but also, I’m thinking that TEX didn’t bring him up for a short stint.  If he hits, I think he’ll stay up.  Good that you got him, because someone def. would have.  I like Arcia, though Profar has more upside.

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