The daily grind: 5-7-13

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today’s grind

Pitcher (to start): There are a few good arms for today, but none of them have a particularly friendly match-up.

Justin Grimm is making his way onto my teams but he has a tough assignment in the Brewers.

Zach McAllister is a frequent denizen of the Grind, but a game against the A’s is no easy task.

J.A. Happ sees the worst lineup of the bunch when he faces the Rays, but he’s also the least talented of this trio.

Pitcher (bum): If the Pirates game isn’t interrupted, I’ll predict continuing struggles for Aaron Harang. I do think he’ll settle down eventually, but he may need a few more starts.

I’ll take the Red Sox over lefty Scott Diamond.

Hitter (power): Brandon Belt has warmed up recently. Kyle Kendrick is still expected to be lefty prone, although AT&T Park is not the best place to bet on home runs.

Jonny Gomes and Daniel Nava will face the above-mentioned Diamond.

C.J. Wilson isn’t looking like much more than a decent arm these days. Chris Carter could benefit.

Hitter (speed): Gerardo Parra is set to face Josh Beckett.

Tomorrow’s grind

Pitcher (to start): Jonathan Pettibone has gotten good results thus far, but I wouldn’t necessarily trust that. In particular, a strikeout rate around seven K/9 seems fluky when combined with a 4.4 percent whiff rate. Something has to give there. He’s also walking only about one batter per nine innings, which doesn’t jibe with his minor league performances. In short, expect fewer strikeouts, more walks, and an overall mediocre line.

Barry Zito opposes Pettibone. I was a bit surprised to find him 47 percent owned. The Phillies aren’t a very offensive-minded club, which is the only reason I mention Zito.

A.J. Griffin is 36 percent owned and too good to be available on waivers. Do note that he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher, so you might want to stay away from bandboxes.

Felix Doubront has a pleasant match-up against the Twins. His 5.67 ERA belies a 2.87 FIP.

Pitcher (bum): Last week I recommended in favor of David Phelps. This week, I recommend against. He pitches in Coors tomorrow and is opposed by another exploitable pitcher, Juan Nicasio.

I think the Astros will like facing Joe Blanton.

Ricky Romero is back, but it’s too soon to say if he’s any better.

I’ll draw the line at Luis Mendoza against the Orioles, but I could name more exploitable pitchers.

Hitter (power): Justin Masterson still has slight lefty problems, so this is a good day to go with Seth Smith and Brandon Moss route.

Another lefty and another start for Gomes and Nava.

Is Carlos Pena still around? Because Blanton is a juicy match-up for him.

Travis Hafner is 40 percent owned, but where he is available, a start against Nicasio in Coors seems quite enjoyable.

Hitter (speed): Will Venable will see Ricky Nolasco.

Lefty Matt Moore means Rajai Davis will probably start. Unfortunately, the match-up is difficult.

Weather watch

Storms are expected to interrupt several east coast games, affecting the Tigers, Nationals, Mariners, Pirates, Royals, and Orioles. The Braves and Reds may see a touch of the same storm system.

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Comments

  1. ABSkippers said...

    So I saw the Rodney blow-up before the Hanrahan news, and actually rushed to drop Uehara for Joel Peralta.  I also have Benoit though – should I drop him for Tazawa, or is Uehara the likely fill-in till Bailey is back?

  2. G. Shumway said...

    I’m a die hard Sox fan, and even I won’t touch Doubront tomorrow. The velocity is way down, and his command just isn’t there. Maybe if you’re chasing wins, but these Twins can hit in Fenway and he won’t do your ERA or WHIP any favors. Doubront has a career 5.0 ERA and 1.5 WHIP at home, and that’s when his fastball is 3-4 mph faster.

    References:
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1¶ms=site|BOS07|doubrfe01|pitch|IP|

    http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2013/05/04/what-has-happened-to-felix-doubronts-fastball/

  3. Brad Johnson said...

    I didn’t notice the velocity because he started out the season well on that front. But I see that it dropped rapidly from 92 to 89. That is definitely concerning.

    I always suspect injury when I see that.

  4. ABSkippers said...

    How do you feel about Beckett’s start tonight at home vs. the D-Backs?  Thankfully I haven’t been using him lately, but his waste of roster space is getting tiresome; however he has the Marlins at home later in the week so I figured I’d hang on a little bit longer.  He dominated the D-Backs at Chase last time so should I trust him tonight?

  5. Brad Johnson said...

    Beckett is a stream quality starter who happens to be too popular to stream. I actually have him in two leagues hoping to take advantage of some of the bigger parks he plays in. So far he’s the only drag on both rosters.

  6. Brad Johnson said...

    I shouldn’t say that, one of those teams has CJ Wilson too and I’m deciding between cutting Wilson, Jason Hammel or both right now.

    It’s a keeper H2H league, my other SP are Lee, Kuroda, Fernandez, Cingrani, Chacin, Quintana, Sanchez, and Teheran. I’m looking to pick up Uehara.

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