The daily grind: 8-27-13

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today’s weather watch

Games in Pittsburgh and Detroit have a 40 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms.

Today’s grind

Today’s match-up of Danny Salazar and Alex Wood is exciting, but the rest of the slate is less inspired.

Tomorrow’s grind

Pitcher (to start): Ricky Nolasco draws the easy Cubs lineup tomorrow. He’s up to 55 percent owned.

Martin Perez appears to be settling into the majors nicely. The one knock against him is that his strikeout rate is quite pedestrian. He faces the Mariners tomorrow, but a Felix Hernandez start will hurt his chances for a win.

Charlie Morton‘s developed into a reliable, if unexceptional pitcher. He is showing one elite skill—a 66 percent groundball rate. Tomorrow he faces a weak Brewers lineup, but he can be considered a core performer against most lineups. Unfortunately, this late in the season, fantasy owners usually need more than core performers.

Garrett Richards is someone to keep an eye on going into next season. He pumps gas at 95 mph and has greatly improved his walk rate. His peripherals suggest that an ERA around 3.40 can be expected, assuming the peripherals themselves hold up. Tomorrow, he has a fringy match-up against the Rays.

John Lackey has a bad match-up against the Orioles, but he’s pitched well enough to use him anyway. It’s a risky outing and he’s 60 percent owned, so most of you will want to go another route.

Wade Miley will see the Padres at Chase Field. The Pads are actually a decent hitting lineup this season, thanks to a number of useful platoons, so this is only a decent match-up.

Pitcher (bum): Todd Redmond struggled against the Astros his last time out, so I’m downgrading him to exploit against the righty-mashing Yankees.

Paul Maholm has to conquer the lefty- mashing Indians tomorrow.

The Phillies will face Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Hitter (power): Ryan Raburn and Drew Stubbs should be top targets against Maholm.

Try Ryan Doumit and Brian Dozier versus Bruce Chen.

Cody Asche and Carlos Ruiz are worth considering against Matsuzaka.

I assume Lyle Overbay will start against Redmond.

Hitter (speed): Chris Denorfia will face Miley and he’s the only stolen base target I’m recommending for tomorrow.

Pitchers to come

Thursday: Gerrit Cole remains the top choice, but if you need somebody more available, Erasmo Ramirez will face the Astros.

Friday: I’m tempted to recommend Roy Halladay simply because I’ve never had that opportunity before, but he’s still making rehab starts. Instead, I’m leaning towards Dillon Gee as the top option.

Saturday: Saturday will have some options, though none of the good ones are yet confirmed. Ivan Nova should start against the Rangers. He’s still a great option despite the bad match-up. I really can’t be any more enthusiastic in my recommendation.

Noteworthy news

Matt Harvey appears likely to require Tommy John surgery. That’s a bummer for fantasy owners and Mets fans alike.

Derek Jeter re-returned to the lineup yesterday.

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« Previous: Matt Harvey’s injury and thoughts on player development
Next: Currently historic: Can Cabrera do it? »


  1. S. Urista said...

    I have both Salazar and Wood. Going against each other. In Atlanta.  Up against an innings cap and would rather not eat up 15 innings when I’m maxed at only 1 possible win.

    Cleveland better offense over course of year, Atlanta better since all-star break or so. Atlanta at home vs Cleveland kills left-handed pitching.

    I also have Verlander going, so do I just play him and sit both Wood & Salazar as too much of a crapshoot either way?

  2. Brad Johnson said...

    Yea you captured the conundrum, which makes it hard to pick even a slight favorite. There’s probably around an 80% chance of picking up a win from those two compared with a typical 45% chance for a standard, good stream start, so you’re not coming out too far behind. Granted I understand if you need to give lady luck the opportunity to hand you two wins since you’re forfeiting that roughly 22% chance for 2 W.

  3. drewcorb said...

    Harang got designated and Yahoo! posted a note saying that Taijuan Walker could get called up for the start on Friday so his ownership is shooting up, or likely will imminently.  What do you see happening in Seattle?  If he gets the start on Friday, it’s against the Astros which is nice.  His walks have been high at all levels, but he’s got great K%s.

  4. Skoolboy Jim said...

    I need to make up some innings, and I can’t decide whether to start Verlander today. I am in that unfortunate pattern with him and J. Zimmerman where I sit them on games that they produce and start them when they blow up. Anyone have any last minute insight?

  5. S. Urista said...

    I think you’re starting him. I mean, if you’re not going to start him at home, with a good offense behind him, against a team that’s struggled the past month or so (20th in runs scored post-ASG), when are you going to start him? He can’t get Houston every time out…

  6. S. Urista said...

    and of course he walks the first batter, gives up a soft single, catcher mis-plays a ball to put men on second and third with no outs, and a bloop single makes it 2-0 before he even gets one out. Oh, and he’s already at 20 pitches.

    Just shoot me now please.

  7. Brad Johnson said...

    As for Walker, he’s worth a grab in any keeper format and deeper mixed leagues. I’ll keep an eye on the situation.

  8. captain playoffs? said...

    so I have these startes to go, who gets benched today.. Eovaldi, Niese, Slazar, CJ.Wilson and Yin Chen?

  9. Skoolboy Jim said...

    hahahah, Of course I started him. That Jed Lowrie blooper killed me.

    Something is wrong with Verlander. I remember in years past he always started in the low 90’s and by the end of the game he was in the high 90’s. Now he goes out there and (it feels like desperation) and is throwing gas to the first batter he gets behind.

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