The daily grind: 8-28-13

by
August 28, 2013

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Yesterday’s Danny Salazar versus Alex Wood match-up didn’t quite live up to the hype. Both pitchers were merely solid, though Wood did avoid allowing any runs.

Today’s weather watch

There is a low chance for scattered thunderstorms in Washington D.C. and New York (NL).

Today’s grind

Today features decent talent and plenty of depth.

Tomorrow’s grind

Pitcher (to start): Jake Odorizzi doesn’t have a good match-up, but he does have all the upside of a young, highly regarded prospect. Expect a reasonable strikeout rate, strong walk rate, and plenty of help from the Rays defense.

Gerrit Cole hasn’t set the world on fire, mostly because he isn’t achieving the elite strikeout rate that many have hoped for, but he is putting in solid work. This time around, he’ll face the lowly Brewers.

Erasmo Ramirez is showing a bit of a home run problem, which makes his start against the Astros at Minute Maid Park a little worrisome.

Pitcher (bum): As I’ve been harping, Ethan Martin doesn’t have the command and control of a major league starter. He faces the Mets this time around, so the match-up is friendlier.

The Astros have TBA listed for tomorrow, which is likely to be Jordan Lyles.

Hitter (power): Get Justin Smoak into the lineup against Lyles.

Lucas Duda and Ike Davis are solid power options tomorrow against Martin.

Try Brian Dozier against Bruce Chen.

Sean Rodriguez may be worth consideration against Jason Vargas.

Hitter (speed): Give Jonathan Villar a shot against Ramirez if you need to bulk up on steals or try Robbie Grossman if you want multi-category upside.

Our base-thieving friend Eric Young Jr. is back for another appearance.

A Hardball Times Update
by RJ McDaniel
Goodbye for now.

Pitchers to come

Friday: The Mariners have yet to name who will replace Aaron Harang in the rotation. Don’t believe the speculation that Danny Hultzen could get the call. He’s been out since June with a recurring shoulder injury.

That leaves you with Dillon Gee as the top option on a very thin streaming day.

Saturday: Saturday is more promising. Zack Wheeler looks like the best gambit.

Sunday: Alex Wood draws the Marlins on Sunday in a must, must, must start.

Noteworthy news

The Rays optioned Jeremy Hellickson yesterday, claiming they want him to rest for the stretch run.


You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
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Scooter
10 years ago

I’m on the fence about starting Chacin and Chris Archer today. Anyone else?

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Brad Johnson
10 years ago

I feel more comfortable about Chacin than Archer, though it depends on what you need.

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S. Urista
10 years ago

Am I crazy for wanting to sit Felix today at home vs the Rangers? The Mariners have been awful lately (well..more awful than usual) and the Rangers are 2nd in the Major in runs scored since the ASG.

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Eric Dykstra
10 years ago

Archer and Felix are both no-brainer starts, and Chacin is a definite no-start in Colorado.

Archer: Angels projected to score 3 runs today, a very low mark, and they strike out at a pretty average rate. Backed by a good offense against a mediocre pitcher, this is a top-tier matchup.

Chacin: Don’t start medicore pitchers in Colorado against decent offenses. Giants o/u today is 4.5 runs, the Giants strike out less than any team, and Colorado suppresses strikeouts anyway.

Felix: Rangers o/u on runs in 3.5, and although they don’t strike out a ton compared to most teams, but it’s still one of the top pitchers in the game against a mediocre offense (albeit in a pitchers park). It’s still a top-tier matchup I’d start in even 8-team leagues (if anyone actually plays those).

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Brad Johnson
10 years ago

You should still play him. Maybe if you were way over your innings allotment you could be picky…

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Brad Johnson
10 years ago

Eric, how did you come by the 3 run mark for the Angels?

Archer’s a 4.00+ ERA pitcher before adding in the Rays defense and the Angels offense is merely a bit below average. Archer also doesn’t really strike out many which is backed by an average whiff rate and he’s a little prone to allowing the walk. If I owned him, I’d only be using him against truly bad offenses going forward.

You have a point with Chacin. There’s going to be a lot of balls in play, and we all know that can work out either way.

As far as Chacin being mediocre, I would expect a real team to prefer him to Archer ROS. Obviously Archer is much more dynamic, but he’s far from polished.

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Scooter
10 years ago

I’m right on target with the innings allotment. I’m low on K’s (3rd to last in Yahoo Pro). I should check the other teams ahead of me and see which ones are way over on innings though.  Strong on Whip and ERA. Thanks for the input!

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S. Urista
10 years ago

I am over pace at present but based on my projected starts for the rest of the season with my current staff I should be fine – especially since I may not be using Verlander as much as I expected. Something’s clearly wrong, although I’ll be damned if I know what it is. His velocity still looks ok, maybe 1 mph slower on the fast ball. Interestingly his slider is 1.5 mhp -faster-, so maybe it’s the smaller difference in speed?

The only other major difference I see: He’s essentially stopped throwing his 2-seamer fastball (from 6-7% of all pitches the last 3 years to 0.6% this year), and there’s been a -massive- spike in number of change-ups: from 18% in 2011, 22% in 2012, and 30.1% this year.

I have no idea what this means.

Sigh – the gods hates a coward, and I feel dirty leaving a potential Cy Young winner on the bench in a home start in a great pitcher’s park…so come on King Felix, gimme one here.

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Eric Dykstra
10 years ago

@Brad – https://www.pinnaclesports.com/TeamTotalsLeague/Baseball/MLB/1/Lines.aspx

And I don’t believe in Chacin’s HR luck going forward, especially at home. I don’t see any cat where Chacin is a winner today. Giants are favorites with Bumgarner on the mound, you won’t get Ks in that matchup/park, and the ratios are just not going to be happy.

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S. Urista
10 years ago

Yeah, so that worked out well. 3 innings, 8 earned runs, 11 hits. Jesus I really should have listened to my first instinct.

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S. Urista
10 years ago

Meanwhile the cheating, colluding douche in front of me in the standings is fucking streaming gold bricks. Every single guy he randomly picks up throws zeros for 7-8 innings at a time. Pettitte on the road against Toronto? Sure! Travis effin’ Wood vs Kershaw? No problem!

Ghhr, I so badly want to break something.

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Brad Johnson
10 years ago

I know the feeling. My entire 2012 season felt like that, nothing went my way.

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Scooter
10 years ago

No kiddin’ when will these humans start acting like the statistical machines we know they truly are.

I traded a bunch for Fielder the 4ft. bowling ball at the All Star Break because I needed RBI’s and HR. Then it comes out he is going through a freakin’divorce. My hunch is that V-lander is going through something off the field also.

Every year there is a bottom-dwelling team that I stream against that invariably makes me pay. This year it is the White Sox. No matter who I throw out there against them they slaughter him (it seems)

I am going to try Halladay against the Cubs on Friday, and I am nervous about that one.

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Brad Johnson
10 years ago

You should be nervous about Halladay. He’s still doing rehab assignments, just happens they’re in the majors.

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Scotter
10 years ago

I didn’t even ask about starting Wainright. Urista, I feel your pain. Waino has already given up 9 COUNT’EM 9 freaking runs in 1.1 inning.

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