The daily grind: 9-13-13

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today’s weather watch

Pittsburgh has a 30 percent chance to see some showers, but otherwise the excellent August weather is expected to continue.

Today’s grind

Internet outages interfered with yesterday’s column. You’ll want to take a look at Charlie Morton, Danny Salazar, Jon Niese, and maybe David Hale if you’re desperate.

Tomorrow’s grind

The Mets and Marlins have a doubleheader tomorrow, so stream accordingly.

Pitcher (to start): Gerrit Cole is hovering at 48 percent owned and he’s set to face the Cubs tomorrow. His strikeout and whiff rates are slowly creeping up.

Ubaldo Jimenez is turning back the clock, generating healthy whiff and ground ball rates for the first time since 2011. He’s been racking up strikeouts over his last five outings, so he might be worth a plug against the White Sox.

Michael Wacha draws the Mariners. He’s showing great basic peripherals including a strikeout to walk ratio over three (3.23 K/BB). His fastball averages about 93 mph as a starter and close to 95 as a reliever. As can be expected, he posted a much better strikeout rate as a reliever.

Pitcher (bum): Johnny Hellweg has the ludicrous combination of low strikeout rate and high walk rate that makes it impossible to pitch in the majors. He currently sports 16 walks, two hit batters, two wild pitches, and only four strikeouts in 16.2 innings. Oh, and he’ll face the Reds.

Daisuke Matsuzaka was solid in his last outing against the Indians, but he remains extremely exploitable. Even the low firepower Marlins offense can be expected to post crooked numbers.

Robbie Erlin is a fringy lefty at this point in his career. He’s the kind of pitcher that the Braves should easily handle, but with half the lineup banged up, they’re liable to play the B team with frequency over the next few weeks.

Roy Oswalt will get a spot start against the Diamondbacks. At this point of his career, who knows what to expect.

Hitter (power): Christian Yelich is the only Marlin I would rush out to own for tomorrow’s doubleheader.

Lucas Duda might get both starts tomorrow, since they’re evaluating him for a starting job next season.

Try Garrett Jones against Scott Baker.

Jonny Gomes will face the no longer dominant CC Sabathia. David Ross may get a start too.

Hitter (speed): Lefties Adam Eaton and Gerardo Parra are worth a long look against Oswalt.

Eric Young Jr. also might start both games tomorrow. The Mets have so many second division types they want to look at that they may sit Young one of the games.

Pitchers to come

Sunday: It’s looking like a rough day for streaming on Sunday, I would try Dillon Gee against a perhaps tired Marlins lineup.

Monday: Erik Johnson appears to be the top pick for Monday in another thin group.

Tuesday: Tuesday is a beefier group, I’m leaning toward Marco Estrada as the top recommendation.

Noteworthy news

Derek Jeter is officially shelved for the year, but this feels like old news.

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Next: The daily grind: 9-14-13 »

Comments

  1. fhod_dj_x said...

    I need a waiver batter for this weekend to majorly boost my OBP. Who would you recommend? I see quite a few guys facing some bad starters but I’m just not sure who’s a good bet to be in the lineup/have a big night.

  2. Brad Johnson said...

    Can you give me a bit more to go on so I don’t recommend players who are already taken or deeper into the pool than you need to go? If you’re league is set up to allow public access, just share the link and I’ll take a look.

  3. Ellsbury Owner said...

    Thanks.  Have a similar issue in a weekly league that starts on Tues vs. Mon.  14 team mixed league roto.  If I got steals or power would be nice as well.

  4. ABSkippers said...

    So in my 12 team mixed roto keeper league, I have a $1 Dom Brown, a $10 Encarnacion, and at the deadline traded for a $27 Ellsbury.i intend to keep E5 and Brown regardless if they play again or not.  4 of the 5 offensive categories are set – I have 12’s and healthy leads in R, HR, and SB, and a secure 11 in RBI (but can’t catch 12).  AVG however is up for grabs – I have a .267 and 6 points, I lead the 5 guy by .00002 and the 7 guy has a .268.  I’m also 3 points out of first as of this morning, so every point is crucial.

    I’m also at 8 points in SV’s, trail the 9 guy by 8 saves, and have 4 closers to his one (Ziegler).  He also has the #1 waiver priority, and not a great set of keepers, so maybe a $27 Ellsbury is attractive to him.  I could offer him a waiver trade and drop Ellsbury to him if he’ll drop Ziegler. 

    The potential downside is that the guy who trails me by 3 saves and is playing for 3rd place overall has 2 closers and with 3 closers maybe he gets lucky and catches up with me.  And maybe I can catch the guy in front of me regardless, although if I drain him of his last closer presumably I assure myself of that point.

    I’m reluctant to just out and out drop Ellsbury, because the guy in first place im chasing is tight in SB, has plenty of bench space, and if he came back that last week and stole a few bases, it could make the difference.  But I need the bench space for pitching.  You think the waiver trade is a good idea?

  5. ABSkippers said...

    I also have a $1 Leonys Martin who I have continued to carry despite my lead in SB, just rotating him off the bench when he has a favorable matchup for hits.  I think he’s potentially valuable at $1, and regardless if I keep him we have offseason trading.  But given my lead in SB, should I just drop him to carry a starter like Estrada or Roark, or a middle reliever who can help in ratios?  W’s and both ratios are super tight both in front of and back of me.

    I have 1 point coming to me in K’s.  After that I have the potential to pick up a point apiece in era and whip, a point in SV’s, maybe 2 points in W’s, and a point in avg.  but I could also lose points in any of those categories as well.  I have about 150 IP left (out of 1350) with Scherzer, Sale, Verlander, Kluber, Salazar, and 4 closers.  Would you weight those IP towards streaming starts or middle relievers?  Guys like Torres, Hochevar, or Paco Rodriguez might get 8 or so more IP a piece, which is basically one good start’s worth.

  6. fhod_dj_x said...

    Satin is a great idea! thanks, I love that he could potentially play in 4 games too…Not a lot of great options on the wire, but Nava and Aoki are available as probably the other top 2 options, but with Nava’s platoon situation in constant flux I wanted some alternatives

  7. Brad Johnson said...

    ABS,

    With the rotation you already have, I might try the MR strategy. A guy like Estrada could help your ratios the tiniest bit, but he’s not a good bet for W’s and starters in general aren’t good bets to help in ERA/WHIP this late in the season.

    For the saves issue, I might hold pat. Figure you need about 12 saves to catch him from your 4 guys. I’d take the shot. As you mentioned there’s downside if the wrong people get the right players out of that scenario.

    This sounds like it’s a pretty active league. I’m a firm believer in letting my opponents manage their way out of a victory. Manage your ratios as carefully as possible and let the rest of the chips fall where they may.

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