Thoughts and projections on a third tier of pitching prospects

From Dan Hudson to Chad Jenkins, I’m providing major league projections for those with enough Double-A experience and 2010 expectations for 15 of the top pitching prospects in baseball. View my thoughts on other prospects at my always-updated Top 100 Prospects list.

Dan Hudson / SP / Chicago White Sox
2010 thoughts:
Hudson is Triple-A Charlotte’s best arm. It will be difficult for Chicago to keep him away from the majors. Expect them to cave in by July.
Average-year projection:
198 IP / 4.40 ERA / 1.33 WHIP / 13 W / 12 L / 163 SO / 194 H / 69 BB
Prime-year projection:
210 IP / 3.91 ERA / 1.25 WHIP / 15 W / 12 L / 181 SO / 197 H / 66 BB

Matt Hobgood / SP / Baltimore
2010 thoughts:
Fresh out of high school, Hobgood will call Single-A Delmarva home in 2010.

Tim Alderson / SP / Pittsburgh
2010 thoughts:
Pittsburgh should continue to allow Alderson to face off against the best that the Eastern League has to offer. Some late-season Triple-A time, and possibly even a start or two in the majors, would be a nice reward for a job well done.
Average-year projection:
193 IP / 4.51 ERA / 1.38 WHIP / 11 W / 12 L / 146 SO / 191 H / 76 BB
Prime-year projection:
203 IP / 4.04 ERA / 1.33 WHIP / 13 W / 12 L / 161 SO / 195 H / 75 BB

Casey Crosby / SP / Detroit
2010 thoughts:
Crosby’s season has yet to get off the ground due to a bone bruise, but a combination of Advanced-A and Double-A work is upcoming.

Jarrod Parker / SP / Arizona
2010 thoughts:
There is talk that Parker could be back from Tommy John surgery sometime around the All-Star break, but I wouldn’t count on it. I expect him to be shelved for the entire season, but he could be ready to pitch again by the time fall league play starts up.

Chad James / SP / Florida
2010 thoughts:
Florida should play it slow and keep James in Single-A Greensboro for his first full year.

Chris Withrow / SP / LA Dodgers
2010 thoughts:
Withrow is in Double-A Chattanooga now and should see Triple-A Albuquerque before the season is up.

Manuel Banuelos / SP / NY Yankees
2010 thoughts:
Expect the Yankees to move Banuelos one step at a time, and that means he will spend 2010 in Advanced-A Tampa.

Tim Melville / SP / Kansas City
2010 thoughts:
The Carolina League seems to be a good test for Melville at this stage, but I could envision a couple of Double-A starts toward the end of the year.

Aaron Crow / SP / Kansas City
2010 thoughts:
I was expecting Crow to have to earn his way to Double-A Northwest Arkansas, but he was rewarded with that opportunity out of spring training. The Texas League is a good level for his age. Expect him to remain there for the rest of the season.

Trevor Reckling / SP / LA Angels
2010 thoughts:
The Angels continue to be aggressive with young Reckling. It shows a tremendous amount of faith in his abilities. A full, stable year playing for one team, Triple-A Salt Lake, is a good thing.
Average-year projection:
185 IP / 4.72 ERA / 1.45 WHIP / 11 W / 12 L / 145 SO / 189 H / 80 BB
Prime-year projection:
196 IP / 4.26 ERA / 1.38 WHIP / 13 W / 12 L / 160 SO / 193 H / 78 BB

Kyle Gibson / SP / Minnesota
2010 thoughts:
With his recent injuries seemingly behind him, Gibson could move fast, starting in Advanced-A Fort Myers and culminating with a stop in Triple-A Rochester.

Ethan Martin / SP/RP / LA Dodgers
2010 thoughts:
Martin won’t be in the California League for long. Double-A Chattanooga is up next and should provide a strong test.

Aaron Miller / SP / LA Dodgers
2010 thoughts:
Miller has ascended to the California League, and he should join Chris Withrow and Ethan Martin in Double-A Chattanooga by midseason.

Chad Jenkins / SP / Toronto
2010 thoughts:
Jenkins has debuted in Single-A Lansing. He should ascend steadily, finishing up the year with a couple of starts in Double-A New Hampshire.

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