2010 DIRVA_PLUS pitching runs

Last year I introduced DIRVA_PLUS, a pitching metric specifically designed to look at the actual past performance of pitchers. Unlike pitching metrics that are designed to measure a pitcher’s true talent to be used in projecting future performance, DIRVA_PLUS includes the effects of sequencing of events. It also makes an adjustment to adjust for the quality of the defense that supports a pitcher so that DIRVA_PLUS can better represent only the pitcher’s performance.

Here are the National League Leaders for 2010:

FIRST        LAST              IP        DIRVA_RUNS    HIT_BALL_RUNS      DIRVA_PLUS_RUNS
Ubaldo       Jimenez         215.3         -24.3            -20.7              -45.0
Josh         Johnson         183.7         -37.1             -7.8              -44.9
Tim          Hudson          228.7          -5.8            -37.4              -43.2
Adam         Wainwright      230.3         -34.1             -8.6              -42.7
Roy          Halladay        250.0         -30.5            -11.3              -41.8
Roy          Oswalt          211.7         -20.2            -18.2              -38.4
Clayton      Kershaw         204.7         -24.0            -10.0              -34.0
Brett        Myers           223.7         -17.4            -15.1              -32.5
Clay         Hensley          75.0         -15.1            -12.3              -27.4
Hong-Chih    Kuo              59.7         -14.6            -11.2              -25.8
Dan          Hudson           79.7          -7.8            -17.5              -25.3
Evan         Meek             80.0          -8.2            -15.2              -23.4
Billy        Wagner           69.3         -19.2             -3.0              -22.2
Mat          Latos           184.7         -23.0              1.0              -22.0
Jaime        Garcia          163.3         -17.6             -4.3              -21.9

Runs are runs saved for the team compared to a league-average pitcher, so negative is better. DIRVA_RUNS are the total run value added by strikeout, non-intentional walk, home run, balk, pickoff, hit by pitch, and wild pitch events only. It measures similar events to FIP. HIT_BALL_RUNS are the run value added by batted ball outs, singles, doubles and triples minus the average value that the team’s defense allows for those events. DIRVA_PLUS_RUNS is simply DIRVA_RUNS added to HIT_BALL_RUNS.

Here are the American League Leaders:

FIRST        LAST              IP       DIRVA_RUNS     HIT_BALL_RUNS     DIRVA_PLUS_RUNS
Felix        Hernandez       249.7         -24.4            -17.9              -42.3
Clay         Buchholz        173.7          -9.6            -25.9              -35.5
Jered        Weaver          224.0         -25.2            -10.0              -35.2
Justin       Verlander       224.3         -27.4             -2.4              -29.8
Joakim       Soria            65.7         -13.8            -11.7              -25.5
Jon          Lester          208.0         -16.7             -6.8              -23.5
David        Price           208.7         -16.8             -5.3              -22.1
Brian        Duensing        130.7           0.3            -22.3              -22.0
Joaquin      Benoit           60.0         -10.5            -10.1              -20.6
John         Danks           213.3          -7.1            -13.5              -20.6
C.J.         Wilson          204.3         -12.7             -6.7              -19.4
Matt         Thornton         60.7         -12.4             -5.3              -17.7
CC           Sabathia        237.7         -14.9             -2.7              -17.6
Ricky        Romero          205.0          -6.8             -8.7              -15.5

The full lists for 2010 are available in this spreadsheet (click to download). All stats are from MLBAM Gameday.

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Comments

  1. Drew said...

    Was there ever a part 2 for the original DIRVA article?  I would be curious to see how much the batted ball runs regress to the mean.

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