2010 DIRVA_PLUS pitching runs

Last year I introduced DIRVA_PLUS, a pitching metric specifically designed to look at the actual past performance of pitchers. Unlike pitching metrics that are designed to measure a pitcher’s true talent to be used in projecting future performance, DIRVA_PLUS includes the effects of sequencing of events. It also makes an adjustment to adjust for the quality of the defense that supports a pitcher so that DIRVA_PLUS can better represent only the pitcher’s performance.

Here are the National League Leaders for 2010:

FIRST        LAST              IP        DIRVA_RUNS    HIT_BALL_RUNS      DIRVA_PLUS_RUNS
Ubaldo       Jimenez         215.3         -24.3            -20.7              -45.0
Josh         Johnson         183.7         -37.1             -7.8              -44.9
Tim          Hudson          228.7          -5.8            -37.4              -43.2
Adam         Wainwright      230.3         -34.1             -8.6              -42.7
Roy          Halladay        250.0         -30.5            -11.3              -41.8
Roy          Oswalt          211.7         -20.2            -18.2              -38.4
Clayton      Kershaw         204.7         -24.0            -10.0              -34.0
Brett        Myers           223.7         -17.4            -15.1              -32.5
Clay         Hensley          75.0         -15.1            -12.3              -27.4
Hong-Chih    Kuo              59.7         -14.6            -11.2              -25.8
Dan          Hudson           79.7          -7.8            -17.5              -25.3
Evan         Meek             80.0          -8.2            -15.2              -23.4
Billy        Wagner           69.3         -19.2             -3.0              -22.2
Mat          Latos           184.7         -23.0              1.0              -22.0
Jaime        Garcia          163.3         -17.6             -4.3              -21.9

Runs are runs saved for the team compared to a league-average pitcher, so negative is better. DIRVA_RUNS are the total run value added by strikeout, non-intentional walk, home run, balk, pickoff, hit by pitch, and wild pitch events only. It measures similar events to FIP. HIT_BALL_RUNS are the run value added by batted ball outs, singles, doubles and triples minus the average value that the team’s defense allows for those events. DIRVA_PLUS_RUNS is simply DIRVA_RUNS added to HIT_BALL_RUNS.

Here are the American League Leaders:

FIRST        LAST              IP       DIRVA_RUNS     HIT_BALL_RUNS     DIRVA_PLUS_RUNS
Felix        Hernandez       249.7         -24.4            -17.9              -42.3
Clay         Buchholz        173.7          -9.6            -25.9              -35.5
Jered        Weaver          224.0         -25.2            -10.0              -35.2
Justin       Verlander       224.3         -27.4             -2.4              -29.8
Joakim       Soria            65.7         -13.8            -11.7              -25.5
Jon          Lester          208.0         -16.7             -6.8              -23.5
David        Price           208.7         -16.8             -5.3              -22.1
Brian        Duensing        130.7           0.3            -22.3              -22.0
Joaquin      Benoit           60.0         -10.5            -10.1              -20.6
John         Danks           213.3          -7.1            -13.5              -20.6
C.J.         Wilson          204.3         -12.7             -6.7              -19.4
Matt         Thornton         60.7         -12.4             -5.3              -17.7
CC           Sabathia        237.7         -14.9             -2.7              -17.6
Ricky        Romero          205.0          -6.8             -8.7              -15.5

The full lists for 2010 are available in this spreadsheet (click to download). All stats are from MLBAM Gameday.


3 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Steve Mc
13 years ago

Verlander would get more ink pitching for an east coast team.

DrBGiantsfan
13 years ago

LOL Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels, the best 3 man starting rotation in the history of baseball!

Drew
13 years ago

Was there ever a part 2 for the original DIRVA article?  I would be curious to see how much the batted ball runs regress to the mean.