A defensive shift

What do the following 5 players all have in common: Jason Bay, Ken Griffey, Jr., Jermaine Dye, Brad Hawpe, and Adam Dunn? The answer: they were named in Matthew Carruth’s article over at fangraphs as being baseball’s 5 worst defensive players over the last 3 seasons. They are also either free agents this offseason or have been linked in trade rumors.

Griffey recently resigned with the Mariners for a slight increase in the two million dollar salary he received last season while Dye recently had his twelve million dollar option bought out by the White Sox. There’s little doubt, of course, that Griffey’s best days are behind him but Dye has posted above average wOBAs every year since 2004. Offensively, in 2009, fangraphs had him at 5 runs above average which would have made him roughly a 2 win player even at age 35 if he were only average defensively.

Bay, named by most as the second best position player free agent on the market, has cost his teams nearly 65 runs defensively by playing poor defense as a corner outfielder over the past 3 seasons. His defensive ineptitude has completely nullified his offensive value since 2007, making him just an average major league outfielder over those 3 seasons. Partly due to his defense, Dave Cameron made the argument that not only would signing Mike Cameron be a better free agent value but that the nearly 36 year old center fielder was actually a better player than Bay is right now.

As for Hawpe and Dunn, they’ve been the two worst defensive players in the big leagues since 2007. Dunn is signed for one more season while the Rockies have one year plus an option on Hawpe. Theoretically, these two players are productive enough at the plate that they should be in high demand this offseason, particularly considering the relatively weak free agent market. So why are their teams interested in getting rid of them? Could it be because their overwhelmingly disastrous defense sucks away any value they gain from their offense?

Looking back at Carruth’s list, we see that J.J. Hardy is number three on the list of the best defensive players over the previous three seasons. While he was traded to make room for Alcides Escobar, the Brewers were able to use Hardy to acquire Carlos Gomez from the Twins. Gomez is a guy who gets all of his value from being able to play center field very well. He has yet to post a wOBA as high as .300 in the major leagues and yet he has been worth nearly 24 runs in center field over the last two seasons.

There are other reasons, of course, to explain the White Sox lack of interest in Dye or the fact that Griffey only received a two million dollar base salary: namely, the fact that age and offensive production are moving in opposite directions. Perhaps the Rockies and Nationals are only seeking to capitalize on the weak free agent market and Hawpe’s and Dunn’s offensive talents to attempt to receive a large package in return. But it just may be that teams are truly getting a sense of how valuable good defense, and how detrimental, bad defense can be. Perhaps the success of the Rays in 2008 and the Mariners in 2009 is an indicator that good defense has been undervalued and teams are planning on trying to take advantage of that this offseason. It will be interesting to see if the free agent contracts signed by Bay, Cameron, and Adrian Beltre and Vladimir Guerrero reflect that.