And that went up and down

by
April 29, 2010

Here is the Win Probability graphic of that Phillies/Giants game, courtesy of Fangraphs:

image

The Giants had a 4-1 lead with two out and a runner on first in the ninth and a 99% probability of winning. Then Brian Wilson (who led the majors in tough saves last year) loaded the bases on a grounder and a walk and Jason Werth hit a game-tying double to right.

The other crazy thing about this game was how tense the two extra innings were (check out the red leverage index bars). The Phils took the lead in the top of the tenth only to give it up in the bottom. Then they scored two in the top of the eleventh, just to be sure, and the Giants then came back and scored one run and had runners on second and third with only one out in the bottom of the eleventh (putting win probability slightly in their favor) before finally giving up on two grounders.


Dave Studeman was called a "national treasure" by Rob Neyer. Seriously. Follow his sporadic tweets @dastudes.
2 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
The A Team
13 years ago

I said something similar to this at The Book Blog, but this game graph does not come close to describing how crazy this game was. Baseball is said to be a game of inches, but rarely does that refer to a fan reaching out and just barely missing an excuse me, bases clearing double with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th. And rarely is the deciding run the result of a dropped fly ball from the same guy who dropped a ball the play before (on an admittedly much harder play).

0
Dave Studeman
13 years ago

Wow, I didn’t realize that.  No graph will ever replace actually watching a game.

0