Base Runs Pythagorean Winning Percentage

Runs scored compared to runs allowed is a good predictor of a team’s win-loss record. The theory goes that teams can have a run of good or bad luck in close games, and that means that their runs scored and allowed totals are a better reflection of their ability. If that’s true, then it would figure that using sophisticated run estimation formulas instead of actual runs scored and allowed should be even better – since teams can have good and bad luck bunching their hits and walks together.

Team hitting and pitching stats are provided to us daily by Baseball Info Solutions and allow us to calculate Base Runs – my favorite run estimator. There are several versions of the formula floating around the net, including one I developed last year. Using that formula, here are the Base Runs Pythagorean WPCT for each team:

American League

Team	BaseRuns	OppBR	BR Pyth
Red Sox	164.8	120.9	.643
Rangers	184.7	141.3	.630
Orioles	161.0	133.1	.593
Angels	167.5	148.4	.558
Chi Sox	159.4	145.1	.546
Yankees	148.5	139.8	.529
Athletics	153.0	152.6	.501
Jays	145.4	146.0	.498
Twins	156.2	157.2	.497
Indians	157.2	178.6	.436
Tigers	153.8	179.7	.423
Royals	136.2	159.6	.423
Mariners	123.9	162.8	.373
D’Rays	108.0	151.9	.347

National League

Team	BaseRuns	OppBR	BR Pyth
Astros	166.1	121.4	.645
Cubs	167.0	134.1	.604
Marlins	152.5	132.1	.568
Padres	145.7	128.5	.558
Phillies	139.3	123.2	.558
Cardinals	164.3	151.2	.540
Dodgers	148.2	138.2	.533
Mets	133.9	125.4	.530
Brewers	156.9	155.3	.505
D’backs	146.6	155.0	.473
Braves	135.6	148.5	.457
Rockies	158.1	175.9	.446
Pirates	121.1	137.3	.441
Reds	149.4	173.4	.427
Giants	138.8	179.9	.377
Expos	95.6	140.8	.336