Base Runs Pythagorean Winning Percentage

Runs scored compared to runs allowed is a good predictor of a team’s win-loss record. The theory goes that teams can have a run of good or bad luck in close games, and that means that their runs scored and allowed totals are a better reflection of their ability. If that’s true, then it would figure that using sophisticated run estimation formulas instead of actual runs scored and allowed should be even better – since teams can have good and bad luck bunching their hits and walks together.

Team hitting and pitching stats are provided to us daily by Baseball Info Solutions and allow us to calculate Base Runs – my favorite run estimator. There are several versions of the formula floating around the net, including one I developed last year. Using that formula, here are the Base Runs Pythagorean WPCT for each team:

American League
Team BaseRuns OppBR BR Pyth
Red Sox 164.8 120.9 .643
Rangers 184.7 141.3 .630
Orioles 161.0 133.1 .593
Angels 167.5 148.4 .558
Chi Sox 159.4 145.1 .546
Yankees 148.5 139.8 .529
Athletics 153.0 152.6 .501
Jays 145.4 146.0 .498
Twins 156.2 157.2 .497
Indians 157.2 178.6 .436
Tigers 153.8 179.7 .423
Royals 136.2 159.6 .423
Mariners 123.9 162.8 .373
D’Rays 108.0 151.9 .347

National League
Team BaseRuns OppBR BR Pyth
Astros 166.1 121.4 .645
Cubs 167.0 134.1 .604
Marlins 152.5 132.1 .568
Padres 145.7 128.5 .558
Phillies 139.3 123.2 .558
Cardinals 164.3 151.2 .540
Dodgers 148.2 138.2 .533
Mets 133.9 125.4 .530
Brewers 156.9 155.3 .505
D’backs 146.6 155.0 .473
Braves 135.6 148.5 .457
Rockies 158.1 175.9 .446
Pirates 121.1 137.3 .441
Reds 149.4 173.4 .427
Giants 138.8 179.9 .377
Expos 95.6 140.8 .336
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