Career projections 2011

Each of the past few years, I’ve published career projections for all players aged 21-41 based on a system I developed a few years ago. See last year’s article for reference. This year, I’m too busy to write an article, but I’ve run the numbers so I figured I would throw them up here for download. Note that for hitters I project their career hits and home runs as well as their chances of reaching certain milestones in those categories, while for pitchers I project career wins and their chances of winning 300 games.

The spreadsheet with results for every player (again, aged 21-41 in 2011) who played last season can be downloaded here.

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  1. jim said...

    Wow, Stanton has a better chance at breaking Bonds’ record than Pujols? I wonder what kind of odds you could get on this in Vegas.

  2. GBH said...

    These percentages say there’s a 2/3 probability that an active player will break 763.  I’ll take that bet.  The 763 percentages are too high across the board.  They likely do not account for a changed offensive environment.

  3. David Gassko said...


    Those projections are simply based on numbers from the past few years for each player, so I don’t think offensive environment plays too big of a role. Uncertainty dictates that a lot of things could happen. A-Rod still has a good shot, Pujols could eventually make a run, and if he stays healthy, Stanton looks like he’ll be a home run hitting monster.

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