Cole Hamels looks to rebound…from what?

We’re on the cusp of spring training. As such, every player is in the best shape of his life. Some have had LASIK, while others have taken up yoga. A player who didn’t meet expectations the previous season has renewed his commitment to the game, looking to atone for a lackluster performance. You know the drill: it’s February, not much is going on, and a column is due. Insert platitude here.

Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels is a popular choice for the last of these annual narratives. The story practically writes itself: a young ace becomes a postseason hero, pitching his club to a World Series title and becoming the toast of the town in the process. He gets a parade, endorsements and the adoration of an entire city. But when the confetti clears, the ace still has stars in his eyes. His performance dips. Questions about his dedication and focus arise.

It’s a compelling tale. But in the case of Hamels, it’s difficult to find evidence to support it.

In 2008, Hamels posed a 3.09 ERA. This past year, that mark ballooned to 4.32. Many reasons have been offered in an attempt to link a cause to the effect. Perhaps his spring training elbow soreness lingered. Postseason totals included, Hamels tossed 72.1 additional innings in 2008 than he did in 2007. Maybe his curveball (never a huge part of his repertoire) abandoned him, leaving him as a two-pitch hurler. Or, his head wasn’t clear. And so on.

This article by ESPN’s Buster Olney gives the perspective of both Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee and Hamels himself:

Dubee:

“He is such a perfectionist…his approach wasn’t very good last year. His success won’t come back until his demeanor changes.”

Hamels:

“The more angry you get, it’s that much tougher to execute your next pitch. I think I let [expectations] get to me.”

Those are poignant quotes, suggesting significant changes are necessary for Hamels to return to his 2008 form. I’m not going to speculate about Cole’s demeanor. But in terms of pitching performance, there’s just little separating the celebrated southpaw of 2008 and the scrutinized, slumping Hamels of 2009.

During his banner ’08 season, Hamels logged 227.1 regular season innings, with a 3.72 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). In a 2009, he threw 193.2 innings, as he got a quicker hook in some starts (6.88 IP per start in ’08, 6.05 per start in ’09). His FIP was…3.72.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies In Denver

In 2008, Hamels struck out 7.76 and walked 2.1 batters per nine innings. This past season, he whiffed 7.81 and walked two per nine frames. Hamels’ batted ball profile scarcely changed at all. He actually had a lower line drive rate in 2009, with a slightly higher percentage of ground balls and more infield flies (data courtesy of Fangraphs):

2008: 21.8 LD%, 39.5 GB%, 10.8 IF/FB%
2009: 20.8 LD%, 40.4 GB%, 12.9 IF/FB%

In terms of his plate discipline stats, the only noticeable change was in his outside swing percentage: Hamels didn’t get as many hacks at pitches off the plate. However, his rate of outside swings was still above-average, and his percentage of contact within the zone (Z-Contact) and overall contact rate were lower in 2009 than in 2008:

2008: 30.8 Outside Swing%, 83.4 Z-Contact%, 76.9 Contact%
2009: 26.8 Outside Swing%, 79.3 Z-Contact%, 75.2 Contact%

(The MLB averages are roughly: 25% for Outside Swing, 88% for Z-Contact and 81% for Contact).

Hamels’ pitch selection didn’t change drastically: he threw a few more four-seam fastballs in place of his curveball and changeup, while seemingly working in an occasional two-seam fastball. The difference in speed and movement between Cole’s four-seamer and signature changeup between the two years wasn’t large. In 2008, there was a 10.5 MPH separation between the heater and the change. In ’09, the separation was 10.2 MPH. In ’08, there was a 4.1 inch difference in vertical break between the four-seam fastball and change. It was 4.3 inches this past year. Hamels’ changeup tailed away from right-handed hitters 4.3 inches more than his fastball in 2008, and four inches in 2009.

As Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool shows, Cole’s four-seam fastball and changeup didn’t suddenly become BP pitches. His curveball admittedly wasn’t as sharp:

image

So, Hamels’ peripherals, plate discipline numbers and pitch selection hardly diverged between 2008 and 2009. What explains the 1.23 run increase in ERA?

In 2008, Cole had a .270 BABIP, with a 76 percent rate of stranding runners on base. In 2009, he had a .325 BABIP and a 72.1 percent strand rate.

As a fly ball starter who induces a fair amount of pop ups, Hamels has the profile of a pitcher who will generally post a slightly lower than average BABIP. Fly balls, though far more damaging run-wise, fall for hits less often than ground balls. Also, infield flies are just about automatic outs, and Hamels has the 11th-highest infield/fly rate among starters over the past two seasons. Odds are that in 2010, he splits the difference between those extreme BABIP figures over the past two seasons (his career BABIP is .295).

Hamels’ strand rate might also regress back toward his career average next year. Cole has left 74.8 percent of base runners marooned in the majors.

Despite a marked difference in ERA, there was precious little to distinguish the 2008 and 2009 versions of Cole Hamels. In all likelihood, he’ll post an ERA in the mid-to-high three’s next season. That would make for a nice redemption story, though it would be more a case of Hamels’ performance aligning with his skill set.

Print Friendly
 Share on Facebook0Tweet about this on Twitter0Share on Google+0Share on Reddit0Email this to someone
« Previous: Defending Brady Anderson
Next: Pleading the Fifth—NL Style »

Comments

  1. Dan in Philly said...

    Give the kid a break, he can’t go on local radio and talk about BABIP.  He has to give them a narrative about something.  It doesn’t matter if he believes it or not, it gives him an excuse to put last year behind him and start over, which is better than drastically changing his mechanics or something silly like that.

  2. David Golebiewski said...

    Dan,

    This certainly wasn’t meant as any sort of criticism of Hamels, Dubee or sports writers. It’s just to show that while some people might look at his 2009 season and saw “jeez, what happened?” there really isn’t much of a difference between his ‘08 and ‘09 numbers.

  3. joe said...

    Looking at splits according to times through the batting order, I found this trend with Hamels:

    split-OPS+ in 2008:

    1st: 76
    2nd: 71
    3rd: 67

    BABiP:

    1st: .259
    2nd: .289
    3rd: .240

    In 2009:

    1st: 80
    2nd: 100
    3rd: 124

    1st: .270
    2nd: .321
    3rd: .413(!)

    If anything, this suggests that Hamels was becoming predictable to hitters as the game went on, not adjusting his approach once hitters saw him.  I would love to see his LD% in this split.

  4. Paul Moehringer said...

    I just think he got overworked in ‘08, and really didn’t have much of a chance to recover before the start of the ‘09 season.

    He wasn’t able to get his ERA below 5 until late May, and was up and down for most of the summer, and didn’t pitch well at all during the postseason.

    I think he’ll bounce back though.  He’s got very good, although not great stuff, and a very solid work ethic.

    He’s still in his 20’s as well so he should just now start to be really coming into his own.

    I don’t know if we’ll ever see the ‘08 Hamels again, but we should get a solid all-star pitcher.

  5. Mike Treder said...

    Excellent analysis. It doesn’t fit the mythology, of course, but a huge amount of what happens in baseball comes down simply to luck.

  6. Joe R said...

    Cole Hamels 2008-09 differences are enough to make Voros McCracken giddy.

    It really is amazing that luck is a novel concept to people in baseball still.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Current day month ye@r *