With Texas’s win over Texas Christian last night, the field for Omaha is set. First-round times and matchups have been announced, so we can look at every team’s chances of making it the rest of the way. For background and methodology, you can read the article I published when the 64-team bracket was announced.
For a variety of reasons, Arizona State has once again taken over as the slight favorite, with a nearly one-in-four chance of going home victorious. Virginia and Fullerton follow close behind, while Southern Mississippi and Arkansas vie for the title of “biggest underdog.”
One interesting quirk in the system is that, while I simulate the tournament based on strength ratings (winning percentages based on runs scored, runs allowed, and strength of schedule), those strength ratings change with every game. Virginia looks even better on paper than they did two weeks ago, but now they rate less than a tenth of a percentage point better stronger than Arizona State. Fullerton has also made their case in the first two rounds, now looking much better than they did at the outset of the tournament.
Read more for the complete pre-Omaha odds.
Team FinalTwo Champ Texas 20.1% 8.1% Southern Mississippi 7.5% 1.8% Arizona State 44.1% 24.7% North Carolina 28.3% 12.4% Cal State Fullerton 33.6% 19.0% Arkansas 6.1% 1.6% Virginia 37.8% 22.3% Louisiana State 22.4% 10.0%