Detailed standings at the all-star break

A couple of times a week, I download a bunch of baseball stats into Excel and generate my own standings table. Since we’re at the official All-Star break thingie, I thought I’d inflict my standings format on you:

7/11/2012                                                          Win Probability Added
American League East      Temp    RS     RA  PWins  Diff Close    Bat Starters  Bullpen
NYY       52    33 .612    103   412    347     49     3 22-13    4.90    0.96      3.65
BAL       45    40 .529     54   351    387     39     6 29-13   -2.72   -2.56      7.78
TBR       45    41 .523     66   363    359     43     2 21-21    1.22   -1.58      2.35
TOR       43    43 .500     65   430    408     45    -2 11-19    2.40   -3.30      0.90
BOS       43    43 .500     60   432    389     47    -4 17-21   -0.82   -1.38      2.20
American League Central
CHW       47    38 .553     93   409    346     49    -2 19-22    2.40    2.54     -0.44
CLE       44    41 .518     75   385    414     40     4 23-14    2.56   -3.29      2.23
DET       44    42 .512     99   387    381     44     0 24-24    0.47   -0.45      0.97
KCR       37    47 .440     53   344    385     38    -1 21-22   -4.75   -3.25      3.00
MIN       36    49 .424     69   354    441     34     2 20-18   -0.96   -9.82      4.29
American League West
TEX       52    34 .605     82   443    364     51     1 18-17   -0.61    2.84      6.77
LAA       48    38 .558     91   378    334     48     0 19-18    4.96   -0.18      0.22
OAK       43    43 .500     93   319    316     43     0 22-20   -3.82    2.71      1.12
SEA       36    51 .414     52   337    365     40    -4 17-27   -4.34   -2.03     -1.13
                                                                   Win Probability Added
National League East      Temp    RS     RA  PWins  Diff Close    Bat Starters  Bullpen
WSN       49    34 .590     84   348    290     48     1 24-24    2.98    2.63      1.89
ATL       46    39 .541     89   391    357     46     0 22-16    4.42   -2.93      2.02
NYM       46    40 .535     74   394    374     45     1 22-16    5.55    1.13     -3.69
MIA       41    44 .482     66   334    390     36     5 24-22    1.13   -1.35     -1.28
PHI       37    50 .425     32   368    396     41    -4 16-21   -0.21   -1.92     -4.37
National League Central
PIT       48    37 .565    105   345    313     46     2 28-19    1.34   -1.34      5.50
CIN       47    38 .553     82   358    316     47     0 21-21    1.73    1.93      0.84
STL       46    40 .535     92   426    356     50    -4 14-21    3.65    2.18     -2.83
MIL       40    45 .471     78   384    393     42    -2 19-24    1.26   -0.73     -3.03
CHC       33    52 .388     81   317    386     35    -2 15-24   -4.01   -1.70     -3.78
HOU       33    53 .384     35   344    416     35    -2 17-24   -5.82   -3.17     -1.01
National League West
LAD       47    40 .540     48   332    322     45     2 24-21    1.35    0.13      2.02
SFG       46    40 .535     56   338    346     42     4 29-19    5.15   -2.06     -0.09
ARI       42    43 .494     75   375    365     44    -2 17-21    0.20    0.12     -0.82
SDP       34    53 .391     72   305    381     35    -1 19-26   -2.42   -6.90     -0.18
COL       33    52 .388     59   413    479     36    -3 14-20   -0.08   -6.82     -2.60

Not that big a deal, really. You’ve got your wins and losses, temperature (based on the Bill James formula that measures how hot a team is–room temperature is “normal”), runs scored and allowed, pythagorean wins (based on runs scored and allowed), the team’s record in close games (those decided by one or two runs) and Win Probability Added attributed to the offense, starting pitchers and relievers. Your standard sabermetric stuff, but stuff that isn’t typically listed together.

These are all macro-level numbers, but you can use them to see what’s going on. The Orioles have substantially beat their pythagorean record by winning close games (hence, the outrageous WPA posted by the bullpen). But they’re kind of cold right now, and that particular ship appears to be sinking. The Dodgers are even colder, despite leading the National League West. Their starters haven’t contributed a lot, though they’re still the best in the West.

Can the Pirates keep it up? They’re the hottest team in baseball right now, in first place to boot. But their bullpen has the third-highest total in the majors and they’ve had a fine record in close games. They’re one of the best stories in the league right now, but the signs point to danger ahead.

The Phillies? In last place. Cold, cold. The most dramatic offense in the majors belongs to the Mets (comebacks!) but they also have one of the worst bullpens. The Marlins are about even in close games, but five games ahead of their pythagorean record. That implies that they’ve lost their blowout games. Actually (looking it up), it’s true! The Marlins are 3-13 in games decided by five more more runs.

The Rangers’ bullpen has been wildly good, but Texas hasn’t won more than their share of close games. What’s up with that? Oakland’s starters have contributed more to their WPA than anyone else. The White Sox are solidly in first place, but are the Tigers stirring? Their temperature is higher than it’s been since mid-April. And check out the difference in WPA between the Twins’ starters and relievers.

If you’d like, find your own stories in the numbers. And let’s play ball.

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Comments

  1. Tangotiger said...

    You must have made a mistake.  The Mo-less Yanks bullpen is 5th in MLB.  And the Papelbon-filled Phillies bullpen is last.

  2. David said...

    Texas and Boston, 1st and 2nd in runs scored, but negative WPA from their offense?  Giants, 2nd in offense WPA, but 24th in runs soored?

  3. Tangotiger said...

    WPA measures the TIMING of those runs.  That’s the purpose of WPA.  It describes when runs are scored.

    If you don’t care for that, just use runs scored.  And if a team bunches runs into a blowout, then it’ll help their total runs scored, but won’t help their WPA.

    Use whatever it is you need.

  4. studes said...

    What Tango said.  That’s exactly the reason for including both figures.  Together, they tell a fuller story.

    Want to know why the Giants are winning close games?  Check the WPA.  It’s the offense.

  5. Detroit Michael said...

    Interesting to me that among teams with 4 or more difference between their pythagorean record and their actual W-L record there isn’t a very strong correlation between that result and the bullpen WPA.  I thought that bullpen WPA would explain more of that difference, but it’s really just one component.  For a team such as MIA, it’s clutch hitting apparently.

    Thanks, studes.  Love anything you post.

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