The Padres beat the Giants 4-3 in ten innings last night, hurting the Giants’ chances for the wildcard. A lot of the coverage has focused on the game-ending play, in which Dustan Mohr made a questionable judgement call catching a foul fly ball (and subsequently hurting his knee). But that wasn’t the key play of the inning. Here’s a quick play-by-play of the last inning, including the change in the Padres’ chances of winning:
- As the inning begins, Padres have a 63% chance of winning. Home teams always have an advantage in extra-inning games.
- Ramon Hernandez safe at first on Alfonso’s throwing error. Padres’s chances increase to 72%. 9% impact.
- Torrealba makes a throwing error on Kerry Robinson’s bunt, Robinson goes to second, pinch-runner Freddy Guzman to third. Padres chances increase to 93%. 21% impact. This is the key play of the inning.
- Jay Payton grounds out, runner out at home (nice play by Torrealba to catch the ball at home). Chances decrease to 84%. 9% impact.
- Flyout to Mohr, Padres win. 16% impact.
Giant fans should particularly bemoan the error by Torrealba, who is really a fine defensive catcher. This is similar to last year’s Bartman game in Chicago, in which Cub fans were upset with Steve Bartman, a fan who interfered with a foul ball, when they really should have been upset with Alex Gonzalez’s key error that same inning.