Me vs. reality, 2014

The Cooperstown election results came out today, so it’s time to compare my predictions with reality. Here is how I stacked up:

Player	        Me	Reality
Greg Maddux	99	97
Tom Glavine	94	92
Frank Thomas	85	84
Craig Biggio	76	74.8
Mike Piazza	71	62
Jack Morris	70	62
Jeff Bagwell	62	54
Tim Raines	50	46
Roger Clemens	38	35
Barry Bonds	36	35
Curt Schilling	34	29
Lee Smith	34	30
Mike Mussina	29	20
Alan Trammell	26	21
Edgar Martinez	23	25
Larry Walker	16	10
Fred McGriff	13	12
Jeff Kent	11	15
Mark McGwire	11	11
Don Mattingly	10	8
Sammy Sosa	7	7
Rafael Palmerio	5	4
Others	        4	4

I was only one point off on Biggio—but it was the point that counted. I said in, but the BBWAA gave him 74.8 percent and so he’s out. I was correct on the other three entering.

Mostly, my predictions were high. I guessed 9.04 names per ballot. In reality, there were 8.38. That’s still the most votes per ballot in decades.

In all, I made predictions on 22 guys, and was off by a total of 78 percentage points—so that is 3.5 percent per guess. That isn’t too bad. There are four guys I was really off on—Mike Piazza, Mike Mussina, Jack Morris and Jeff Bagwell. I missed all of them by eight or nine points. In every case, I was high.

I nailed just two of them—Sosa and McGwire. I was off by one five times—Thomas, Biggio, Bonds, McGriff and Palmerio. I was within five points with 17 of my 22 guesses.

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  1. Paul G. said...

    Good work as usual.  I look forward to your predictions.

    It is good to see that the voters filled out more of the ballot, breaking tradition.  That should help avoid the ballot logjam that has haunted past votes.  Would have been better if they pushed Biggio over though.

    So did Biggio miss by 1 or 2 votes?  As I understand it there were 571 ballots and 74.8% is 427 votes.  428 is 74.956%.  Does the HOF round up?

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