Me vs. reality

For the third straight year, I made my fearless (or is it brainless?) predictions for how the BBWAA vote would go. Now that the vote is in, let’s see how I did:

Name	     BBWAA	Me	Dif.
Andre Dawson	78	84	6
Bert Byleven	74	73	1
Robeto Alomar	74	82	8
Jack Morris	52	51	1
Barry Larkin	52	60	8
Lee Smith	47	52	5
Edgar Martinez	36	35	1
Tim Raines	30	36	6
Mark McGwire	24	30	6
Alan Trammell	22	17	5
Fred McGriff	22	24	2
Don Mattingly	16	15	1
Dave Parker	15	18	3
Dale Murphy	12	15	3
Harold Baines	6	6	0

Good news and bad news here.

Good news: I was close on almost everyone. I’m especially proud of my guesses on Blyleven and Martinez. My margin of error was only 3.7% on average, and I was within eight percent on everyone.

Bad news: for the first time ever, I missed an induction call. I said Alomar would and the BBWAA disagreed. That said, I wasn’t off by much – eight more votes and he walks in. Still, it was a miss. Also, a lot of these guys were out of order.

Final note: Repoz at BTF made a tally of HoF ballots that totaled almost one-fourth of the electorate. His margin of error was 4.96% per ballot, so I was a little closer. That’s good for me because that helps justify my annual column. (I’d still do it anyway, but it would just be an exercise done for fun). Repoz was more likely to really nail a person’s vote total than me, but he was also more likely to be widely off the mark, as was the case with Alomar, Raines, and Mattingly.

We both had Alomar go in, and he also had Blyleven go in. Man, it was a tough year to call the vote!

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Comments

  1. Chris J. said...

    Repoz,

    One thought I have: a year or two ago, Maury Brown posted the names of all BBWAA members and what their regional was.  A LOT were in the NYC area, far more than I ever would’ve even guessed.

    I assume the percentage of NYers who don’t release their ballots to the public is greater than the electorate as a whole because such a huge chunk of them are in the one town.

    That might explain why Roberto Alomar, who faded so incredibly quickly when he joined the Mets, pulled so far below where you have him.  It might also explain the bizarre difference you have with Mattingly (and this isn’t the first time you’ve had this split with him either).

    Just a theory.

  2. Greg Simons said...

    I speculate that a greater percentage of saber-friendly types would be willing to share their ballots than stodgy old-timers who are more protective of their “unique insights” into the game, which could help account for the disparity between yours and Repoz’s Alomar percentages.

  3. Chris J. said...

    Greg,

    I never thought Alomar of being a sabermetric darling particularly.  He was widely regarded as the best second baseman of his era, with 12 straight All-Star Game selections, and 10 total Gold Gloves Awarded. 

    What difference exists in repoz vs. reality I think deals more with generational than other things. In Alomar’s case I do think the NY-centric-ness of the voting is what cost him that last sliver of votes he needed.

  4. Repoz said...

    Dag…I’m still pulling in stragglers and Alomar’s % is still going up!

    Good work as usual and thanks for the help.

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