Me vs. reality, 2013

Well, in a way I can claim I was right in my annual Cooperstown prediction piece.

Oh, not in the ways that mattered, no. I predicted Craig Biggio would get elected today. The results just came out, and Biggio fell short, well short. He scored just 68 percent of the vote, well below the 76 percent I pegged him at.

But hey, I began my prediction piece by flatly stating I had no clue what would happen. So I clearly have no clue.

Anyhow, let’s look how I did overall. I gave projected guesses for 19 Cooperstown candidates, and here’s how that stacks up versus reality.

Candidate	BBWAA	Me	Dif
Craig Biggio	68	76	 8
Jack Morris	68	69	 1
Jeff Bagwell	60	52	-8
Mike Piazza	58	61	 3
Tim Raines	52	48	-4
Lee Smith	48	47	-1
Curt Schilling	39	39	 0
Roger Clemens	38	45	 7
Barry Bonds	36	45	 9
Edgar Martinez	36	33	-3
Alan Trammell	34	38	 4
Larry Walker	22	17	-5
Fred McGriff	21	16	-5
Dale Murphy	19	14	-5
Mark McGwire	17	16	-1
Don Mattingly	13	14	 1
Sammy Sosa	12	13	 1
Rafael Palmeiro	9	10	 1
Bernie Williams	3	6	 3

The thing is, even though I got the big question wrong, and even though I was the furthest off with the guys near the top of the ballot (the most important candidates), I was pretty close on a lot.

I nailed just one guy—Curt Schilling—and I was off by only one point on six others and within five points on 15 of the 19 I guessed on.

But I sure sucked on those Astros and had trouble with Bonds and Clemens, as well.

I guessed there would be 6.66 names/ballot, and there were 6.60. So that was close, but I took too many votes away from guys down ballot and gave too many to the non-Bagwells up ballot.

Better luck next year, I guess.

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  1. InnocentBystander said...

    You have a great track record so you have earned a pass. Even though this was a tough year I think you still deserve a lot credit because it’s tough to predict what insane people will do.

  2. Scottso said...

    Chris, I think you were very very close.
    I’d give you an A.

    There are writers who say they won’t for anyone who played during this era. 
    Does this mean they also stopped watching games because people may or may not have used PEDs.

    So that means no Frank Thomas next year?  No Ken Griffey Jr.  No Ichiro.  No Jim Thome.  No Derek Jeter.  Because everyone is a suspect. 

    Let’s face facts.  People used.  They used substances not necessarily banned by baseball while they played. 

    We know A-Rod used.  So are they going to keep him out too?

  3. nobull said...

    chris, i have to tell you…since you sound a little disappointed in yourself?

    i think you did awfully fucking well.  serously.

  4. Paul G. said...

    There was little precedent for such a unique election.  You did quite well considering.  Keep in mind that you are trying to predict the collective decisions of sportswriters, which I am sure is the definition of insanity in some quarters.

    So, next year, the backlog is worse than this year.  Some writers may have refused to vote for the PED gang on the first ballot, but may the second time.  Jack Morris gets his last shot.  And the immortal Joe Borowski gets his moment.  Should be fun.

    You know, it would be better if they required the sportswriters to vote in person if only for the PPV rights the fistfights that will break out.

  5. Chris Jaffe said...

    I’m just irked at the Biggio thing.  I’m pleased at how well I did on most of the rest of the ballot.

    A few years ago, I went against my gut & with the Repoz tally on Alomar and came up wrong.  This time I flipped it and again was wrong.  Those are my two misses.  Rats. 

    So life goes.  I never would’ve guessed my average score would be a 3.3% margin of error.  I never would’ve guessed I’d be that close.

  6. Chris Jaffe said...

    Todd – I had “others” at 7% total.  I think that comes off as low.  I didn’t guess for Lofton himself, but would’ve put him at 3-4%.

  7. Todd said...

    Ah, I see. I was thinking that since he had about the same % as Bernie Williams, he should have been in, but you estimated Bernie over 5% and Lofton under, so that makes sense.

  8. rubesandbabes said...

    Yes, you missed on Biggio, but you called it on Morris pushing your percentage beyond the counted ballots.

    It is very impressive that you were able to call closely these mid-card entries, Shilling, Edgar, and Piazza.

    Is the Morris surge vs. the drop in Bonds / Clemens a sign that the confidential voters are more of the ‘old school’ variety? Seems yes.

    The trend of voting for those who didn’t get caught is starting to play big. Only the backlog will slow this down. I hope the Mike Trout partisans figure it out to rally against this special kind of stupid, but I have my doubts.

  9. Dennis Bedard said...

    Repoz.  Repoz.  Yes!  Roger Repoz!  I remember his 1967 Topps card.  Now what is or was a “Repoz tally?”

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