So how much will Pujols get?

The results are in, and thanks to the hundreds of readers who responded, I think we have a pretty grasp on what Albert Pujols’s next contract might look like. The median estimate submitted by Hardball Times readers was 8 years and $250 million (coincidentally, that’s what I voted), while the mean was very similar at 7.6 years and $243 million.

So there you have it: Pujols’s contract will likely be the largest ever in terms of annual value at around $31-32 million a year, though in terms of total value, Alex Rodriguez will still have him beat (twice, actually!). Of course, this is the median expectation; our readers’ opinions were quite varied. The following two graphs show the distribution of votes for both years and total value:

image

As you can see, there was a fair amount of agreement on how long Pujols’s contract will be, with most voters choosing either seven or eight years, though six and 10 were also fairly popular answers. There was much less agreement, however, on the ultimate dollar value of the deal. Each value from $175 to $300 million received at least 10 percent of the vote.

Still, I think the wisdom of the crowds worked quite well here (and not just because it agreed with me, though that does help!). Ultimately, it appears likely that Prince Albert will sign a seven or eight year deal worth upwards of $30 million per season. Then again, if he ends up with a 10-year, $400 million contract, it appears that not all of our readers will be surprised.

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Comments

  1. Michael Lahr said...

    Frankly, I am astounded by the contract length being proposed here. I don’t see why any team would go for more than 3-4 years (and instead pay most any premium asked), given his persistent elbow pain and bouts with plantar fasciitis.

  2. Red Sox Talk said...

    If Matt Holliday can get that many years, why can’t Pujols? I think the Cardinals almost have to give 8 years minimum if they want to keep him.

  3. Jacob Rothberg said...

    Personally i voted 6 years, 175 million. I think people are overrating the chances Pujols leaves. I think he’s not the mercenary a guy like Holliday or A-Rod is.

  4. RMR said...

    I still think this data merits a scatter chart using matched pairs.  A response of 5/250 and 10/200 are very different, but affect the median similarly.  Maybe these two variables would form a straight line (more or less), implying that people are using the same AAV and just multiplying it times the years.

    But if that was the case, why not just asking the question that way?  There could actually be a few different modes of thinking and that is only going to show up if we look at the matched pairs—years on the X axis and $ on the Y.  Omit the values where people only responded to one or the other.

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