THT Forecasts, now with saves and wins projections

THT Forecasts have just been updated. You will now find won/loss projections for pitchers (based on a neutral offense), as well as saves projections as contributed by our depth chart editors. Dan Haren and Tim Lincecum project to lead the MLB in wins with 16 (remember, this doesn’t mean that the eventual league leader will win 16 games, rather that there is no pitcher whose expectation should be over 16), while more impressively (in a sense), Ricky Romero projects to top the leader board in losses with 13.

These numbers will be updated all season, every week. If you haven’t subscribed to THT Forecasts yet, why not do so now, and reap the rewards all year!

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  1. J. Cross said...

    Good stuff.  Tomorrow afternoon I’m going to download what I’ll take to be the final projections from each system (Oliver, Pecota, Chone, ZiPS, Fantistics, Cairo, CBSsportsline and BIS (if they’ll send it to me for free)) so that I can stash them away for a comparison after the season.

  2. Mike Fast said...

    Bobby, the plate appearances are forecast based on human input by a THT writer who is covering that particular team.  The person forecasts a percentage of playing time, and then the THT Forecasts use that percentage of 692 plate appearances.  90% of 692 = 623, which is why you see that number pop up a lot in the forecasts.

  3. Brian Cartwright said...

    I have my own formula in Oliver that predicts PAs based on playing time the past three seasons, age, and projected WAR for the coming season – but it does not look at which team a player is on and which other players he is competing against for playing time – in other words, it doesn’t use a depth chart. Those PAs appear as the first line of the 2010-2015 projections. The depth chart predictions of playing time are shown in the top box which tracks the current season.

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