THT Forecasts – WAR – Pre-season Forecast vs. Current Full-year Forecast

Greetings from THT Forecasts. I hope your fantasy teams — no doubt constructed with the aid of THT Forecasts! — and favorite MLB teams are doing well.

Since THT Forecasts is updated weekly by Brian and Bryan, I decided to quickly and easily compare Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for position players between (1) their pre-season projection that uses only data from previous seasons and (2) their current full-year forecast that combines their year-to-date data with their rest-of-the-season forecast (that still uses data from previous seasons).

This comparison will reveal to me which position players are currently most over-performing and under-performing thus far into the season with respect to what their end-of-season numbers will likely be. I could have tripled their year-to-date WAR for an estimate of their final season numbers, but, for example, it is a safe bet that Albert Pujols will not finish with only 3.6 WAR based solely on his slow start this season. So I used THT Forecasts’ full-year forecast instead.

Tables presented after the jump.

The following tables contain all players I have calculated/estimated to be currently over-performing or under-performing by at least 2.0 WAR. Pujols almost made the under-performing list, as his full-year forecast of 5.5 WAR is -1.6 WAR off of his pre-season WAR of 7.1.

Do you want the good news or bad news first? I will end with a positive, so bad news first.

fyWAR = full-year WAR forecast, and psWAR = pre-season WAR forecast.

Current WAR Forecast Under-performers
Name              Pos Org Lg  fyWAR psWAR Diff
Johnson, Dan       1B TBA AL  -1.2   2.1  -3.3
Mauer, Joe          C MIN AL   2.9   6.1  -3.2
Ramirez, Manny     DH TBA AL  -0.4   2.6  -3.0
Ramirez, Hanley    SS FLO NL   2.4   5.4  -3.0
Montero, Jesus      C NYA AL   0.5   3.2  -2.7
Uggla, Dan         2B ATL NL   0.7   3.2  -2.5
Wells, Vernon      CF ANA AL  -1.0   1.5  -2.5
Utley, Chase       2B PHI NL   2.6   5.0  -2.4
Markakis, Nick     RF BAL AL  -0.5   1.9  -2.4
Posey, Buster       C SFN NL   1.4   3.7  -2.3
Flowers, Tyler      C CHA AL   0.1   2.3  -2.2
Rios, Alex         CF CHA AL  -0.8   1.4  -2.2
Francisco, Juan    3B CIN NL  -0.2   1.9  -2.1
Heyward, Jason     RF ATL NL   2.0   4.1  -2.1
Scutaro, Marco     SS BOS AL   0.3   2.3  -2.0
Morneau, Justin    1B MIN AL   1.3   3.3  -2.0
Stewart, Ian       3B COL NL  -0.1   1.9  -2.0
Carpenter, Matt    3B STL NL   0.0   2.0  -2.0

Note that injuries and retirement are accounted for in the full-year forecast.

Finally, the good news.

Current WAR Forecast Over-performers.  
Name              Pos Org Lg  fyWAR psWAR Diff
Bautista, Jose     RF TOR AL   7.1   1.4   5.7
Kemp, Matt         CF LAN NL   5.6   2.5   3.1
Ortiz, David       DH BOS AL   3.7   1.1   2.6
Joyce, Matt        RF TBA AL   4.3   1.8   2.5
Youkilis, Kevin    3B BOS AL   5.8   3.3   2.5
Ramirez, Alexei    SS CHA AL   3.6   1.1   2.5
Ellsbury, Jacoby   CF BOS AL   3.6   1.2   2.4
Reyes, Jose        SS NYN NL   4.4   2.0   2.4
Lillibridge, Brent RF CHA AL   0.8  -1.5   2.3
Span, Denard       CF MIN AL   4.2   2.0   2.2
Cabrera, Asdrubal  SS CLE AL   3.2   1.1   2.1
Votto, Joey        1B CIN NL   5.8   3.7   2.1
Braun, Ryan        LF MIL NL   5.4   3.3   2.1
Sanchez, Gaby      1B FLO NL   2.3   0.3   2.0

Please visit THT Forecasts for more information about our projection system.

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