Top baserunners of 2009

This is a look at baserunning runs, excluding stolen base attempts. Here’s the basic method:

• For all plays, we consider the lead runner only.
• We figure out the average change in run expectancy for the lead runner for each non-discretionary running event – typically a ball in play (either a hit, error or out). Those plays are grouped by:
  • The number of outs in the inning.
  • The type of event – single, double, etc. (A fielder’s choice is considered an ordinary out.)
  • For batting outs, whether the ball was hit in the air or on the ground.
  • The position of the player who fields the ball.
• Then we figure the change in run expectancy for the lead runner on each individual baserunning play. For a non-discretionary event, we subtract the average value of that running play. For a discretionary running play, such as a wild pitch or passed ball, we do not – a runner is not penalized for the decision not to run.

That gives us our baserunning runs. Your leaders (and trailers) for 2009:

RUN_ID	Name	Runs	Chances
bourm001	Michael Bourn	10.8	230
fowld001	Dexter Fowler	10.0	142
velee001	Eugenio Velez	7.6	90
figgc001	Chone Figgins	7.4	230
podss001	Scott Podsednik	7.0	169
philb001	Brandon Phillips	6.8	118
bonie001	Emilio Bonifacio	6.4	131
wrigd002	David Wright	6.3	172
sweer001	Ryan Sweeney	6.0	142
furcr001	Rafael Furcal	6.0	210

RUN_ID	Name	Runs	Chances
morak001	Kendry Morales	-4.1	123
moram002	Melvin Mora	-4.1	89
posaj001	Jorge Posada	-4.4	99
howar001	Ryan Howard	-5.0	120
thomj002	Jim Thome	-5.1	81
felip001	Pedro Feliz	-5.1	153
wietm001	Matt Wieters	-5.5	84
molib001	Bengie Molina	-5.5	95
heltt001	Todd Helton	-6.3	162
bardj001	Josh Bard	-7.2	55

Your typical caveats apply – don’t read too much into a one year sample. Remember that players at the extremes during any sample tend to regress to the mean as the sample increases, etc.

The full list is available here.