Visual Baseball: Are the Rays Starters All That?

It seems like everyone is talking about how great the Ray’s starting rotation is. But when I dig deeper, it looks like many of their starters have had a fair amount of luck thus far. Using Pitchometer to look at rotations based on FIP, the Rays rotation doesn’t look as “awesome” as is widely publicized. In comparison, the Red Sox rotation (despite an injured Beckett and lousy Lackey) looks better.



The Jays look surprisingly strong…really the most dominant rotation in the Al East right now…


The Yankees – surprisingly average…


And the Orioles – not surprisingly horrid.


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  1. GreggB said...

    Yeah, I think you are right.

    I think the Rays have been the beneficiaries of a great deal of luck on the offensive side as well.  In runs per game, they are bunched with the Yanks, Sox and Jays at the top of the league.  However, if you look at their team OPS, they rank 8th in the league; in total bases they rank 9th in the league—an amazing 150 total bases less than the Red Sox, with almost the same number of runs.

    It would be interesting to see one of your graphics illustrate their comparative standing based on one of the more sophisticated offensive stats…

  2. Derek Ambrosino said...

    FWIW, The Rays also lead the league in steals, and have done so at a success rate over 75%. They have also grounded into the fewest DPs in the league. I’m not saying they haven’t benefited from some luck, but some of these more subtle stats close the gap a bit too.

    Additionally, they are a very good defensive team. Whether any DIPS-related measures (don’t know much about Pitchometer) give their *pitchers* credit for benefiting from that is one thing, but the team itself certainly benefits from that.

  3. Jason B said...

    If the Jays could only stop blowing winnable games, they would be even (more) in the thick of the race.  It’s frustrating to have had the lead in all six of the recent games against the Rays and Yanks, only to go 3-3.  Losing those games smart, particularly when lost to the teams you’re chasing.

  4. Ben (St Paul) said...

    I know the Twins aren’t in the AL East so they don’t matter but they are better than everybody but Toronto by this measure.

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