World Series Probabilities After Game 2

Now that the World Series is heading back to St. Louis knotted at one apiece, the Tigers still have an edge–but just barely. Adjusting for league, Detroit has a 59% chance of taking the title; without the adjustment, it’s just over 52%. Despite that, the Cardinals have a better shot of winning the series in five games than do the Tigers. Not only do they have home-field advantage for the next three games, but Games 3 and 4 are the games that I pegged as the most likely for them to win.

Here’s the complete list of possible outcomes:

DET  STL   NoAdj LgAdj
WIN  LOSE  52.6% 59.1%
LOSE WIN   47.4% 40.9%
4    1     8.8%  11.0%
4    2     22.8% 26.0%
4    3     21.0% 22.1%
3    4     17.8% 16.2%
2    4     13.3% 11.2%
1    4     16.3% 13.5%
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