|The Situation||Win Probability|
|Runs/Game||Inning||Bases||Outs||Score Diff||Home Team||Visitors||LI|
|4.00||Bottom of the ninth||Runners on first and second||1||-1||0.3167||0.6833||7.10|
|4.00||Bottom of the ninth||Bases loaded||1||-1||0.5224||0.4776||9.16|
Just enter a few assumptions in the table below to return the win probability stats of a game situation. First, determine the sort of run environment you want to assume (for instance, more runs are scored at Coors Field, but less runs will be scored when a team's ace is on the mound). Then, select the specific situation: the base situation, the inning (for extra innings, simply choose the ninth), the number of outs, and the score from the home team's point of view (if they lead by say, 5-3, that's a positive two-run differential).
The output will include each team's win probability as well as the leverage index of the situation. The win probabilities are based on models, not empirical data. This is important, because empirical data is often "polluted" by situations and sometimes suffers from a small sample size. You can read more about win probability in this article and you can read about Leverage Index (LI) here. All data was provided by Tangotiger.