Deep thought: come July, Jim Rice won’t even be the best guy to ever have played left field for the Red Sox to be inducted that day.
Example: several years ago I was introduced to the concept of the compensatory pick and how that all plays into free agency and arbitration offers. Soon after, I would find myself in random conversations talking about the manifest value of the draft picks. Which is fine, except for the fact that I am certain that at some point over the years I began to drastically overstate this value, and believe that others have too. Really, when you’re advocating that a given team let its entire starting nine, its manager, its broadcasters, and 2/3 of its fan base walk, the response of “hey, they’re getting picks” just doesn’t seem all that satisfactory. If I knew a single thing about how to value these picks, I wouldn’t have been flopping around in this land of dogma, hunches, and ultimately uncertainty for long, but I didn’t, so here I am.
Thankfully, folks are working on this stuff, including Victor Wang who has built on the work of other analysts and has a nice piece on it today.