Top 20 fantasy third basemen for 2011

Other 2011 fantasy rankings by position: Catcher || First Base || Second Base || Shortstop

A reminder: These rankings are based on position eligibility. Players who are eligible at multiple positions will be ranked in comparison with others at each relevant position. You will also note asterisks next to the sames of certain players. These players have what I think are health risks. Health concerns have been taken in to consideration for my rankings, which combine expected talent with expected playing time to yield expected production.

Position eligibility and evaluation criteria for these rankings is explained here.

Rank      Name             Team          Oliver Slash (2011)**
1         David Wright     Mets          .291/.371/.491
2         Evan Longoria    Rays          .286/.364/.532
3         Ryan Zimmerman   Nationals     .294/.366/.509
4         Alex Rodriguez*  Yankees       .267/.357/.479
5         Kevin Youkilis   Red Sox       .290/.383/.521
6         Adrian Beltre    Rangers       .276/.323/.449
7         Jose Bautista    Blue Jays     .239/.347/.478
8         Pablo Sandoval   Giants        .305/.357/.506
9         Aramis Ramirez*  Cubs          .259/.327/.446
10        Mark Reynolds    Orioles       .222/.323/.479
11        Martin Prado*    Braves        .290/.341/.437
12        Pedro Alvarez    Pirates       .245/.330/.460
13        Michael Young    Rangers       .277/.328/.419
14        Ian Stewart      Rockies       .234/.321/.441
15        David Freese     Cardinals     .262/.322/.413
16        Casey McGehee    Brewers       .273/.325/.426
17        Chipper Jones*   Braves        .263/.373/.415
18        Scott Rolen*     Reds          .271/.343/.413
19        Chase Headly     Padres        .264/.333/.403
20        Michael Cuddyer  Twins         .270/.340/.449

*Assuming health (which means assuming the amount of health I expect from them).
**Oliver’s 2011 projections have been updated since these. Most of the projections are essentially similar, but for the most up-to-date projections, subscribe to THT Forecasts by clicking here. If you are unsure of whether to subscribe to THT Forecasts, you can read about why I love THT Forecasts by clicking here

In my world, third base is deep. ESPN (well, maybe just Matthew Berry and Nate Ravitz) and other “experts” I guiltily follow, rave about how the modern third base position is annually shallow and a successful fantasy year will require you to reach early and reach often. Fear not, however: Not only is third base deep, but it is so deep that you can sit on the position until quite late and exploit others’ need for a third baseman early.

Third basemen, like catchers and closers, are a dime a dozen outside the top tier. If you have the chance to nab David Wright or Evan Longoria in the first round or Alex Rodriguez or Ryan Zimmerman after pick 20, by all means you should jump on that. If you can’t get these guys at a reasonable price, however, you might as well wait, because third base offers plenty of value picks.

Take, for instance, the case of Jose Bautista. Here is the “word on the street” about Jose Bautista: He came out of nowhere to hit 54 home runs in 2010 with 109 runs, 124 RBI and nine stolen bases to boot. With 59 career home runs over 2,038 plate appearances entering the 2010 season, Bautista got extremely lucky and is going to be overrated in 2010.

That is the gist of what I hear talking fantasy these days. To some extent, I agree. Bautista is going to regress in 2011. But regression for Bautista in my mind is 30-plus home runs, not 10 or 15. Look at Bautista’s spray chart and home run statistics. Bautista is an extreme pull hitter who plays half of his games in a park which greatly favors pull hitters. Toronto and Bautista are a fantasy match for home runs made in heaven.

Now, it is true that Bautista led the AL in “just enough” home runs with 13. However, he also lead the league in “no doubt” home runs with 19. Furthermore, Bautista’s average home run distance (402.4 feet) and average ball-of-the-bat speed (106.6 mph) were both above the major league average for hitters (396.5 feet, 103.3 mphH). His power did not entirely come out of nowhere, either. In September 2009, Bautista jacked 10 home runs over 125 plate appearances. Bautista also showed some decent power in the minors for the Pirates, though that never really materialized at the major league level until the end of 2009 (unless you consider his 46 home runs over three years, 1,507 plate appearances, a manifestation).

I doubt that Bautista will touch 40 home runs again, but I am banking on 30-35 with good run/RBI totals. Oliver claims 28, but over only 533 plate appearances (a playing time threshold I expect Bautista to clear). He is likely to be a batting average risk (ignore the favorable BABIP/xBABIP splits, as a decline in home runs is likely to offset the gap), but less so than Mark Reynolds, Adam Dunn or Carlos Pena (two of whom play non-premium positions), and fantasy owners seem to perpetually overdraft them. In my early early mocks, Bautista is going in round seven. If that keeps up, you have 2011 best value sleeper for third base.

Even if Bautista (or Pablo Sandoval, who I like a lot to bounce back in 2011 to hit 20-25 home runs with a .290+ batting average) goes way too early for your liking, there is plenty of late round value to be had at third base. Take Ian Stewart, who I expect to hit .260 with 25 home runs, 80-plus R/RBI and five-10 stolen bases to boot. I have him ranked as my No. 14 third basemen, meaning you will definitely get him in a 10-team league (even one with a corner-infielder-requirement) and that you will likely get him in a 12-team league if you do not wait for the bench-drafting period.

Did you miss out on Ian Stewart too? Try David Freese, capable of a .290+ batting average, 20 home runs and some good run/RBI totals if slotted in the middle of the Cardinals lineup. He is sitting pretty at No. 14. The moral of this story is that even in a 14-team league, the worst third baseman will likely produce 20-plus home runs with good run/RBI totals. Compare that to second base or shortstop rankings, where the only guys outside the top eight who are so capable are Danny Espinosa, Rickie Weeks, Aaron Hill, and maybe Kelly Johnson.

It should also be noted that Chipper Jones has decided that he is not retiring. Jones is a sleeper play in deeper leagues (especially those which value OBP), capable of hitting above .280 with 20 home run power and quality run/RBI numbers. Jones is not a primary option due to his advanced age and perpetual health problems, but he could make a solid fill-out-the-roster player, platoon partner or bench warmer.

Now, of the controversial rankings, I expect people to scratch their heads over Alex Rodriguez and Mark Reynolds. With respect to A-Rod, his lingering hip issues and advanced age preclude me from banking on double digit steals and a robust batting average. Compared to Zimmerman, you sacrifice a few homers for a much safer, productive expected batting average. I expect A-Rod and Zimmerman to swipe a relatively equal number of bases. Reynolds is either too low or too high, depending on which camp you are in. To those who put a premium on power in “era of the pitcher,” aka the era of better steroid test, Reynolds combination of 30 home runs with double digit stolen base potential is undeniably arousing, but Reynolds is also undeniably one of the five biggest, if not the biggest, batting average risks in baseball. If Reynolds were to sacrifice a goat this offseason, his batting average ceiling would be around .260. He’s really just Carlos Pena, with steals, at third base. To those who hate Mark Reynolds, I remind you that 30 home run power is a premium these days; especially when it comes paired with stolen bases.

The rest of the list should be pretty self-explanatory. Martin Prado is still a valuable corner-middle infield option, but his light contributions all around give him a limited ceiling at third base that precludes him from being ranked higher. Chase Headley offers 15/15 upside and could make a solid $1 CI buy for deeper leagues, but he’s not done much of much so far in his career and he is now three years removed from being a “top prospect”, though he is just 26…Headly is not worth a starting third base job outside of NL-only fantasy rosters, however.

As always, leave the love/hate in the comments. You can also follow me on twitter.

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  1. Andrew said...

    Uggla should not be on this list. He’s playing 2B for the Braves, not 3B.

    Not sure where you’re getting that ADP for Bautista, but he’s going 60th on average on Mock Draft Central. He’s also typically getting drafted in the 3rd or 4th round in the early slow NFBC drafts.

    In general, I’m on board with most of the rankings.

  2. Jeffrey Gross said...


    Are you sure? I could easily be wrong, as I was with Coghlan being slotted at 2B, but I thought I read somewhere Uggla was sliding across the diamond to third. Maybe this was just speculation? Could you shoot me a link to verify?

  3. Jeffrey Gross said...


    I realize MDC has Bautista ranked 60, but I’ve done five mocks this week and in no Mock did he go before round 6 or 7. We’ll see how that evolves over time.

  4. Jeffrey Gross said...

    Also, I generally do not mock with “experts.” I like to get a feel for what the average fantasy guy is doing by joining random mocks.

  5. William said...

    I’m unclear why you wouldn’t consider Youk a fair value … he’ll be significantly cheaper than the top guys, while also being noticeably better than the rest.

    I agree about Zimm—and according to MDC, you should be able to get him just after pick 20 … which is ridiculous, since Longo isn’t THAT much better and is going to cost a ton.

  6. Jeffrey Gross said...

    I very much like Youkilis as a .290/25/100/100 play in the fourth round, but someone in my leagues ALWAYS overvalues him and Youk is almost inevitably off the board by pick #30. That’s about 10 or so picks too high in my view and there are at least 10 other names I’d rather pull off the board first.

    Also, Re: Longoria, he’s a 20-30 HR/15-20 SB stud who can hit .280+ and rack up those sexy R/RBI totals. Zpack is clearly a .300/30/100/100 capable hitter, but he’s got no stolen base upside. There’s a discernable difference in value b/w the two, but it’s not nearly as huge as people believe. I feel like Zpack is the power play of the top tier 3B, likely to fall to late round 3.

  7. Sexy Rexy said...

    Let’s be honest Jeff, that “person who always over values Youk” that we play in is ONE person- you’re GOI buddy Cubsfan4evr1

    I still object to Michael Young not being in the top 10. As Matthew Berry says, when you draft him, nobody will say “oohh ahhh! Great pick”; there’s no “wow” factor to him and no upside. Yet every year he just goes out there and performs and ends up being in the top 10. I know (obviously) this is a baseball blog but he’s the Derrick Mason of baseball

    Overall though great list and I love the A-Rod ranking

  8. The Baltimoron said...

    Fat Panda should not crack the top 15.  I’d take Reynolds over him easily, and Alvarez and Young are clearly superior as well.

  9. Dennis Geisleman said...

    Jeff:  I think Chase Headley should be in the top 20.  Nice 15/15 power and speed production. 
    Has not had a breakout despite being a legit prospect.  I also like Sandoval to bounce back if he keeps his weight down and shows a strong work ethic in Spring Training.  Best, Dennis G.

  10. Red Nichols said...

    I had both Longoria and Youk last year and STILL got hammered in my AL-only league.  ‘Course I had Mama-Can’t-Spell Peralta at SS.  .  .My bad.  .  .

  11. Jeffrey Gross said...


    @Dennis Geisleman,
    Headley slipped my mind. With Uggla dropping off this list, I am going to bump everyone up a slot, and add Headley ahead of Peralta just b/c I like his upside potential. Not the best option by a longshot, however. That 15/15 potential has a strong chance of not materializing. Headleys an OK $1 flier, though I’d prefer to wait-and-see with him likely to inhabit the waiver wire to open the season

  12. Jeffrey Gross said...

    Thank you. I will update this list accordingly later tonight.

    @The Baltimoron,
    I can’t tell you why, but my guy loves Fat Panda big time. I think he’ll hit between .290 and .300 with 20-25 home runs batting out of the middle of the Giants line up.

  13. Jeffrey Gross said...


    I’ve added Headly to both the rankings and the analysis. Thanks for pointing out the oversight.

  14. Jeffrey Gross said...

    @The Baltimoron,

    I like Reynolds, but there is a difference between a bad batting average (.260+) and a depleting batting average (.230). You can float a pair of .260+ hitters if they give you solid contributions, but a .230 or worse hitter will absolutely kill your rate stats. Not even Ichiro can save Reynolds. Reynolds is a solid play if you overdraft average and speed, but I suggest always drafting for balance, no categories. If you have balanced players rather than players who collectively, though individually, contribute, you diversify the risk of your team. If Carl Crawford or Ellsbury gets injured and you banked on them as the stolen base cogs of your team you might as well sacrifice the season. If each of your primary players has double digit upside in both hr and sb, however, replacement becomes a much easier task . . . it’s all about hedging risk against production.

  15. Jeffrey Gross said...

    That is why I tend to shy away from Category Guys like Reynolds—I like guys like Gordon Beckham, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Drew Stubbs, Jose Bautista, and Carlos Santana who give you something all around, even if less en toto than say Ryan Howard.

  16. Kevin said...

    Do you worry about pitchers adjusting their approach when facing bautista? On top of simple regression, some pitchers might take him a little more seriously now, or even simply have more ab’s against him to go off of. Maybe it’s just me but I also expect him to go well before the 7th round, (espn’s early rankings has him at 44th) in a 12 team league it only takes one guy to think he can come close to 50 hr’s again.

    Otherwise, I like the rankings and agree that there is a significant drop after the top tier. Hoping I can nab zimmerman in the 3rd.

  17. Cubsfan4evr1 said...

    Considering I usually play in 1 or 2 leagues with you every year and I VALUE Youkilis a lot and want him ever year, I am pretty sure you mean that I just over value him!  I probably do, but even where I draft him I think he is the best value at the position.

  18. wily mo said...

    can somebody explain to me why zimmerman is that much better than youkilis? i can’t figure it out. just youth & upside? cause they both seem to be good bets for something in the range of 30 HR, .290-.310 average, and like 5 steals, and youk’s in a considerably better lineup for run production.  so.  i don’t really get how zimm’s to be jumped on any time after pick 20 whereas youk’s going way too soon in the third round.

    i grant that zimm is 26 which is a great age. so if people watching him play for the nats think he’s about ready to break out for 35-40 HR, do tell.  i’ll buy it.  but failing that, i’m confused.

  19. Jeffrey Gross said...

    @Wily Mo,

    Zpack is just younger and offers more upside. He’s also less injury prone at this point, two-years removed from the last serious thing and only 26. 

    Now Youkilis will offer comparable production. I personally view Youkilis as a .290 hitter with 25 HR, 5 SB, 100+ R/RBI production and Zpack as a .290 hitter with 30+ HR, 5 SB, 100+ R/RBI production.

    It’s an age/injury issue that separates them.

    Youkilis has never played 150 games in his career, has not played even 140 games either of the past two seasons, of which he logged DL time, and last season Youk barely played 100 games (102, to be precise). This additional risk downgrades his value by about 10-16 picks. I have not done a lot of work on my top 100 player rankings yet, but I have Ryan Zimmerman tentatively ranked #19. He is likely to slide down a little, but most likely will end top 25. Early round picks are all about stability, NOT risks because while you cannot win a league with your first 2 or 3 picks, you surely can lose it by gambling. Hence, Youkilis falls to a mid-4th round ranking due to risks. If you expect comparable talent, but one is less prone to produce, you have to economically downsize him on the list.

    My valuations are based on X*Y*Z, where X = talent, Y = expected playing time, and Z = likely to reach talent projection X (for example, Kung Fu Panda has a high X and moderately high Y (145>), but his Z-value (not to be confused with Z-Score) is kind of low compared to a guy like say Nelson Cruz or Carl Crawford, who are stability picks.

    Essentially, in my top 36 names, I look for guys with high X’s and Z’s. The Y’s will come in to the fold on their own.

  20. wily mo said...

    ok. so, upside and risk.  i can see the reasoning.  i kind of agree with some of it and disagree with other bits, i guess. 

    z’s youth & upside, yes.  33 homers at age 24 back in 09 gives him some real ceiling to work with.

    but – on youk’s risk – there’s the DL stints – but i also think of him as one of the steadier performers in terms of performance consistency, plate approach, and so on – which is also an aspect of risk – what odds the guy is just going to space on you even while he’s perfectly healthy.  youk’s one of the last players in the game i’d expect to just randomly hit badly for a year.

    i also think you’re selling his numbers a little short.  pegging him for .290 and 25 homers when the last 3 years he’s hit .312, .305 and .307, and even with the missed time that makes him risky his HR counts were 29, 27 and he was on pace for 30 again last year before the thumb thing hit.  to me he looks like a natural .305/30HR-pace hitter with eerily low variance.  i also don’t think the R/RBI are likely to be squarely equal when you consider the sox vs nats lineups + youk’s likely OBP edge.

    i almost want to argue that youk is less risky, in the sense that you more or less know exactly what he’s going to do.  a 30/.300 pace, massive run production, probably a two-week injury somewhere along the line (this thumb thing seemed pretty fluky – if it turns out to be the beginning of a decline phase then ok, but at this point i don’t see why it would).  whereas with zimmerman you’re angling for a breakout that’s possible but not guaranteed – i drafted rickie weeks for a long time. and if Z just stays the same then you’d probably rather have youk because of the run context.

  21. Jeffrey Gross said...

    @Wily Mo,

    I understand the argument. It’s just, in my eyes, a question of similar expectations with one guy being younger, with more upside, and the other older with injury issues. Thats all. If you drafted Youkilis over Zpack, I wouldnt call you out. If you drafted either before pick 20, however, I would….

  22. Jeffrey Gross said...

    @John K,

    At the beginning of the season, I’m not 100% sure, it will vary by league type. However, he is right now penciled in as the opening day 3B, so he will inevitably gain such.

  23. mymrbig said...

    I think Mark Reynolds is too low.  I agree that if he hits .230 instead of .260, his AVG is way too much of a killer.  However, his BABIP was .257 last year (career .323) and he is walking more than ever before.  Both good signs.  If his BABIP rebounds, his AVG will get over .250 and he’ll be great value for anyone who nabs him after Dunn gets drafted.

    Casey McGehee is also underrated.  I hated the guy when he came up because I don’t trust guys that go from barely-prospects to good MLB players out of no-where.  But 1 2/3 seasons is a pretty good sample size and he is a career .288/.342/.470 hitter.  Other than a little BABIP change, his 2009 and 2010 seasons were almost identical.  I don’t see any good reason to rank him 10 spots behind Beltre, 8 spots behind Aramis Ramirez.

  24. wily mo said...

    i’ve forgotten exactly what they were, but i’ve read that reynolds had some nagging injuries last year that may have contributed to the epic BA tailspin. people already expect his BA to be bad, so it seems like everybody’s kind of taking the .198 at face value without looking for an explanation. but i don’t think he’s likely to stay THAT bad consistently going forward.

    i’m not sure that equates to him being too low on this list, though.  everybody above him has their own substantial upside. 

    perhaps related, i think it’s worth noting that (if my information is right) this is a contract year for aramis. i generally don’t love him as a player but this could be a year to own him if there is such a thing – people relatively down on him, he wasn’t as bad last year as it seems like he was, and the motivation should be there.

  25. Jeffrey Gross said...

    I think its just all about the level of risk you want. I’ve tried to rank based on upside/downside differentials from my subjective view point. Sure, Reynolds could be top 5, but he could also be #20 if he hits the way he did last year. I agree the average will pop up, but he’s like a more toxic carlos pena asset in my view. I like both Pena and Reynolds in real life, but they have a lot of risk. I’m just reflecting that risk accordingly.

  26. Jeffrey Gross said...

    For the love of Bautista:
    According to the Bill James handbook, right-handed pull home runs to left are exaggerated by 37% at Rogers Center.

  27. Jeffrey Gross said...

    I think I fixed the list. This may be my old rankings. But I think it is up-to-date. Can anyone here confirm this is my most up-to-date ranking? I know someone out there posted my list on a sports-nation affiliate comment section.

    I’d appreciate any help! Thanks.

  28. Doug said...

    Don’t see any mention, but I think Chris Johnson (HOU) deserves some recognition.  I would put him somewhere near #15.

  29. Jeffrey Gross said...


    I know all about Chris Johnson and I do not believe in him at all one bit. He may crack #18 by season end, but i doubt it.

  30. Chris said...

    Where is Danny Valencia for the Twins?? Also, why is Cuddyer listed as a qualifying 3B? He’s played a whole 13 games there since 2005.

  31. Pops said...

    “Not only is third base deep, but it is so deep that you can sit on the position until quite late and exploit others’ need for a third baseman early.”

    I couldn’t disagree more with that statement.  Outside of Youkilis, you’re telling me that you would be satisfied with taking a third baseman late?  Beltre: Do you really want him after a contract year?  Sandoval: Counting on a bounceback?  Bautista: The average will go up, but the homeruns are coming down.  Reynolds:  You’re paying for homeruns and strikeouts.  The only guys that I would own outside of the Top 5 would be Pedro Alvarez and Michael Young (if push came to shove).

  32. Jeffrey Gross said...


    The risk in the 3B tier is no more than that of any other tier. I could say the same of Carlos Pena, Lance Berkman, Ike Davis, et. al. The point is that the tier is loaded with guys who have strong potential such that if your draft pick were to bust, you’d have palpatable back up options. Bautista will hit 30+, likely 35+ in 2011 in my strong estimation. I am expecting a bounceback season from Sandoval. But if neither works out, as these rankings show, the “fall back” options are strong enough that you can gamble late without killing your team. Compare the #14 3B to the #14 2B or even the #12 SS. Look, comparably, at the #42 OF.

    The point here regards depth. 3B is deep with capable players, even if some do not pan out. There are plenty of upside options that your 3rd pick does not necessarily need be a 3B. Sure, if you can’t get a SS in the first, you might want to target a top tier 3B, but my point is that you can wait on 3B a little and draft a premier 5-cat guy at any position rather than pull a 3B early to forgo worry

  33. Jeffrey Gross said...


    Cuddyer played 13 games at 3B in 2010

    Valencia does not walk, does not have power, and does not have speed (career MiLB high speed score = 5.2, mostly floats in the mid-high 3’s). Bill James, the king of great expectations projects a mere 10 HR/3 SB, with 60 R/RBI. Cuddyer, who I am not a fan of, is so much better than that.

  34. Pops said...

    I’d rather punt shortstop and target that top tier third baseman within the first two rounds of the draft, which is probably what I’ll end up doing.  Regarding Jose Bautista, does anyone really know what to make of him?  He’s the only player in the history of the game to have a 50 home run season without at least a 20 home run season before it. I’m not saying that he can’t post another impressive homerun total this year, but I’m just not prepared to spend a Round 6 pick to find out.

  35. Jeffrey Gross said...


    I would not at all recommend your strategy for three reasons:

    1) SS is the most shallow position in baseball, with almost every player representing its own eroding, indexed tier
    2) SS tend to be althetic and play more games than other positions, meaning you’ll get a lot more counting stats out of a player at shortstop, so you want an elite rate guy. This is the opposite of my theory of why to punt catchers.
    3) If you draft bautista and he sucks or gets injured, you can always get a back up with Ian Stewart, Chipper Jones or gamble on a plethora of guys like David Freese or Scott Rolen or Chase Headley. On the other hand, if you punt SS, you’re going to end up with say Alcides Escobar or Cliff Pennington and if either flunks, all you’ll have is Miguel Tejada or JJ Hardy (at best) to pick from.

  36. Pops said...

    @ Jeffrey:
    Herein lies the problem.  I have the tenth pick in my upcoming keeper league draft.  Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki will likely be drafted somewhere within the first nine picks.  The rest of the players that show up on that list leave something to be desired and bring considerable risk.  Even in a contract year…. I just don’t trust Jimmy Rollins.  Derek Jeter put up Marco Scuturo numbers last year and is always overrated.  Stephen Drew and Alexei Ramirez are frustrating to own, and Elvis Andrus is already a keeper.  Starlin Castro, Ian Desmond and Reid Brignac are the guys that I will be targeting this year later in drafts… unless I get lucky and land Tulowitzki with the tenth or eleventh pick in the draft.

  37. Pops said...

    Last question: I asked for your prediction for Reid Brignac a couple of months ago.  You gave me a line of around .250 with 16 HR, 9 SB, 75 RBI, 60 Runs.  Can you see him exceeding those numbers?  He was once a hyped prospect in the Rays organization, and he showed breakout potential at times during the season… despite collecting a little over 300 AB’s.

  38. Jeffrey Gross said...


    Sorry, for some reason I thought you were in an auction league. In your scenario, yes, Target David Wright or Chase Utley. Personally, I’d take utley. You should not reach in draft for a SS, just take him as late as necessary to get the best available one (for ex. if he’s going 40 on avg, pick him with your 3rd pick, not #1 pick if he’s the best available SS)

  39. Jeffrey Gross said...


    Re: Brignac, I think that’s his ceiling. I’m not excited for him at all. I’d really rather have Mike Aviles. SS Tend to play quite a bit of time compared to other positions, so an AVG killer could really hurt at SS. I tend to draft avg killer Cs, but not SS

  40. Pops said...

    I’m not sure that I understand your comment in regards to the best available shortstop.  Please clarify.  Thanks for the advice.  Is it spring, yet?

  41. Jeffrey Gross said...


    I’m just saying that you should draft an elite SS in the round he goes in (or 1 early), rather than sit on it. For ex, if Jeter is rd3/4 guy this yr, get him and dont wait on say Pennington or w/e. Make sense?

    Also, I should create a countdown till day 1 calculator.

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