Top 20 second-half flops: nos. 11-20

I have always had an interest in baseball players who had terrific seasons that just went south on them after the All-Star break. I had poked around the internet for the last couple of years looking for someone who had written a piece on this topic but could never come up with anything. So I decided that I might as well do the research myself and write the piece up. First of all, I am not a baseball writer by trade nor I am I necessarily some Bill James True-Believer. On the other hand I am not completely old-school either as I do believe that pure statistics show the baseline of a player’s contribution to a team. I have issues with the concepts of Win Shares but I feel that a combination of statistics that show, in this case, a hitter’s productivity over a decent period of time is a valid way of assessing his positive or negative influence on a team’s success.

I settled on the 40-year time period of the Divisional Era to study. I also chose, at this point, only to evaluate hitters. I entered with the assumption that there would be many, many individuals who went from top of the heap to the bottom, so I came up with some criteria to limit the number down to a Top 20 sort of list. The criteria I chose are as follows:

In the first half of the season a minimum of 200 plate appearances was required. I didn’t want guys who were likely to be fill-ins who managed 105 plate appearances and had somehow done really well and then just gone back to being who they were in the second half. I was looking for regular starters or guys who, through the virtue of their productivity, had become regulars in the line-up. Likewise I wanted guys who had at least 100 plate appearances in the second half. I chose a lesser number to account for injuries, lessened playing time due to lack of production and the fact that most seasons have shorter second halves than first halves.

I wanted real hardcore style crashes. I wasn’t interested in, for example, Wayne Garrett in 1969 who turned in these first- versus second-half numbers:
First half: .261/.339/.315 1 HR, 23 RBIs
Second half: .163/.228/.208 0 HRs, 16 RBIs

Clearly Mr. Garrett had a terrible second half, but it’s not as if he was going to the All-Star Game on the merits of his first-half effort. The drops had to be greater in scope and more historical in nature.

Ideally there would be some noticeable impact to the individual’s team’s record during the second half. While baseball is a team sport and a team wins or loses based on the effort of all 25 players, there is no doubt that a significantly decreased effort from a key individual can and will have an impact on a team’s success. While not every player listed here had teams that went completely south, the farther up the list they are the more likely that there lack of production and the team’s fortunes seem to be intertwined.

I attempted to account for lack of production purely due to injury as much as possible. This was sometimes evident simply by the players’ games played, but it was not always as clear in every case, and, especially in the case of more minor players from long ago seasons, gathering information was not always easy or even really possible.

There were about 40 incidents that stuck out. In a couple of cases guys seemed to be tied together in some sort of way so they were included as one entry. It wasn’t necessarily easy to pare the list down to these 20, so if I missed something from your childhood such as Claudell Washington’s disappearing act in 1984, Jack Clark’s injury-ravaged second half of 1987 or Dwight Evans’ about-face in 1978 (I just couldn’t blame him for the whole mess), don’t think they weren’t considered.

No. 20: 1979 Bob Boone, Philadelphia Phillies and Ted Simmons, St. Louis Cardinals

Boone first half: .321/.403/.500, 7 HRs, 44 RBIs
Boone second half: .226/.302/.288, 2 HRs, 14 RBIs

Simmons first half: .321/.412/.633, 18 HRs, 52 RBIs
Simmons second half: .247/.323/.383, 8 HRs, 35 RBIs

You knew there had to be a catcher or two on the list, right? Found it somewhat ironic that these two NL East catchers nosedived in the year of the “We Are Family” Pittsburgh Pirates who were, seemingly, a team of destiny. Boone entered the break as the starting All-Star catcher, and in the 15 games of July leading up to the break he was a ridiculous .519/.574/.808 as the Phillies went 11-4, moving to 50-41 just three games out. Coming out of the break he crashed back to earth, going .185/.281/.444 as the Phillies went 4-4. August saw the breaking of them as they went 12-18 with Boone going .235/.295/.259 with 0 HRs and 7 RBIs while the Pirates ran away in a 20-9 month. By September 13 the Phils were 13.5 out and Boone got hurt, missing the rest of the year.

Simmons played for the seemingly less potent St. Louis Cardinals, yet on June 11 the Cards were in a tie for first. Then a 2-7 streak during which Simmons was a decent (if less than his results to that point in the season) .324/.375/.541 led up to an injury that cost him a month of playing time during which the Cards sagged to an 11-17 mark. When Simmons returned he was no longer the player of the first half, hitting only .230/.296/.310 and .239/.317/.432 in August and September respectively as the Cards finished 12 games back.

No. 19: 1988 Carney Lansford, Oakland A’s; Chris Sabo, Cincinnati Reds

Lansford first half: .331/.376/.427, 5 HRs, 40 RBIs
Lansford second half: .185/.242/.240, 2 HRs, 17 RBIs

Sabo first half: .312/.352/.524, 10 HRs, 35 RBIs
Sabo second half: .216/.261/.264, 1 HR, 9 RBIs

Lansford and Sabo both played for teams in 1988 that finished second to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The A’s went 104-58 and, obviously, lost to the Kirk Gibson HR/Orel Herscheiser-led Dodgers in the World Series. Sabo’s Reds went 87-74 to finish second in the NL West to the Dodgers. At the Hot Corner both these teams saw ridiculously drastic second-half dropoffs. For the Bash Brother-led A’s Lansford’s disappearance hardly mattered as they were loaded at other positions and had Dave Stewart, Bob Welch and Storm Davis in the rotation with Dennis Eckersly to (oops) close games out. Lansford’s offense was icing on that particular cake, but this dropoff across the board is fairly incredible for a hitter of his caliber.

Sabo, on the other hand, was a mere rookie who, despite a second half of essentially non-production somehow won the Rookie of the Year with total numbers of .271/.314/.414, 11 HRs, 44 RBIs) over No. 2 Mark Grace (.296/.371/.403, 7 HRs, 57 RBIs) and No. 3 Tim Belcher (12-6, 2.91 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and only 8 HRs in 179 innings). Sabo, much like Lansford, played for a team with significant other players (Eric Davis, Barry Larkin, 23-8 Danny Jackson and 18-5 Tom Brown) and falling off the cliff meant little to his team’s success as the Reds went 37-22 in August and September despite his personal failings.

No. 18: 2005 Brian Roberts. Baltimore Orioles

First half: .345/.416/.591, 15 HRs, 49 RBIs, 18 SBs
Second half: .274/.351/.419, 3 HRs, 24 RBIs, 9 SBs

It may seem unfair to put Roberts into this category as it is likely that the Orioles were not going to win the AL East with the more talented Yankees and Red Sox in the same division. However, in 2005 the Orioles stormed out of the gate while the Yankees lurched to a horrid 13-23 start. Roberts keyed the Orioles offense and on June 11 the Orioles were 36-25 and up four games. On June 23 they were 42-30 and held their last lead of the season at half a game. They would go 11-15 into the break and never sniff the division leaders again, finishing 74-88. It is unlikely Roberts could have kept up his torrid pace as he had never hit close to .300 before (and has not since) nor keep up the power (his career high in home runs other than 2005 is 12); however his sharp demise assured the Orioles’ descent into fourth place.

No. 17: 1983 George Brett, Kansas City Royals and Doug DeCinces, California Angels

Brett first half: .364/.447/.701, 14 HRs, 47 RBIs, 29 BBs (184 at-bats)
Brett second half: .275/.342/.471, 11 HRs, 46 RBIs, 28 BBs (280 at-bats)

DeCinces first half: .312/.363/.588, 15 HRs, 46 RBIs
DeCinces second half: .223/.273/.323, 3 HRs, 19 RBIs

Brett had an injury-plagued 1983 that must have contributed to his dropoff. However, after coming back from injuries in June and September he hit just as well or better than he had before he got hurt. Brett also got off to an historic April that saw him hitting .460/.528/.921 with five home runs and 20 RBIs, and the Royals were 10-7. This was not a good team though with a staff of Larry Gura (35 years old), Paul Splitorff (36), Steve Renko (38), Vida Blue (33 but more like 40) and Gaylord Perry (44) that started over 100 games. They went 69-76 the rest of the way with Brett’s return to human stature, finishing 20 games out of first. DeCinces also made the All-Star team.

The Angels were 37-32 on June 24, half a game out of first when he went down with an injury. He missed two months and the Angels went 20-31 in his absence, falling nine games out. His return did nothing to bolster an older squad of Carew, Jackson, Grich, Boone, Lynn, John, etc. that no doubt saw the writing on the wall and didn’t have the grit or youth to pull things together. The Angels would finish 29 games out.

No. 16: 1986 Wally Joyner, California Angels and Jose Canseco, Oakland A’s

Joyner first half: .313/.361/.543, 20 HRs, 72 RBIs
Joyner second half: .253/.330/.335, 2 HRs, 28 RBIs

Canseco first half: .274/.359/.526, 23 HRs, 78 RBIs
Canseco second half: .199/.265/.371, 10 HRs, 39 RBIs

This may not be the most significant second-half dropoff, but this may be one of the most compelling stories. These were the two star rookies in the AL in ’86 that played in the same division. Joyner was the sweet-swinging All-American boy first baseman and Canseco was, well, Jose Canseco: brash, cocky, incredibly gifted and a pain in the ass in general. They were connected at the hip from the perspective of who was going to be the Rookie of the Year (Canseco ultimately won this 110-98). Joyner played for the far superior team and pretty much everyone liked Wally World a lot more than they liked Jose. The Angels ran away with the division going 92-70 with a well-rounded team of primarily hard-nosed veterans and a good rotation led by Mike Witt and a bullpen led by the (ultimately tragic) Donnie Moore. As they both stumbled down the stretch Joyner’s collapse in August and September was so spectacular (.235/.313/.310, 1 HR, 26 RBIs) that Canseco’s equally awful (yet more power- and smacktalk-laden) .198/.239/.406, 10 HRs, 34 RBIs was good enough to give him the honor.

An interesting story that few people remember from 1986 was that Wally pulled it together in the ALCS. Through three games (with the Angels leading 2-1) he was hitting .455/.538/.909 with a home run and two RBIs when he went down with a staph infection in his shin. The Angels went with George Hendrick and Bobby Grich in his place over the next four games who turned in a combined .125/.313/.222. The Angels blew a three games to one lead.

No. 15: 2001 Marquis Grissom, Los Angeles Dodgers

First half: .263/.271/.513, 15 HRs, 43 RBIs
Second half: .175/.228/.283 6 HRs, 17 RBIs

The Dodgers brought Grissom in to man center field for a fairly talented offensive team that included Gary Sheffield, Sean Green and Paul Lo Duca. Grissom responded with a terrific first half and the Dodgers were 48-40, 3.5 games back. Unfortunately for the Dodgers their staff was led by Chan Ho Park who, if you recall, grooved a fastball to Cal Ripken, Jr. in the third inning of the All-Star Game for the “Feelgood Home Run” of the year. Park took the loss in the game and immediately went into the tank thereafter, going 5-7 with a 4.83 ERA.

The Dodgers, however, went 17-11 out of the break to find themselves up half a game on August 10. This despite Grissom turning in a woeful .130/.172/.259 during the stretch. Twenty-one short days later, the Dodgers were five games out and Grissom victimized them again going .206/.296/.317. The Dodgers would finish six games behind the more pitching-heavy, World Series-winning Arizona Diamondbacks. The Dodgers performance speaks more toward their lack of pitching, yet the wisdom of stationing a free-swinging (16 BBs in 448 PAs), 34-year-old in center field has to be questioned as well.

No. 14: 1991 Juan Samuel, Los Angeles Dodgers

First half: .313/.359/.447 9 HRs, 43 RBIs
Second half: .227/.297/.327 3 HRs, 15 RBIs (278 at-bats)

This was the precursor to the Marquis Grissom debacle 10 years later showing that the Dodgers were perhaps not capable of learning the lesson of not relying heavily on players like, well, Juan Samuel and Marquis Grissom. The Dodgers were a hefty 49-31 at the break and held a five-game lead in the NL West. The Dodgers lost the first seven out of the break but still were up four and a half at the end of July. Both Samuel and the team would unravel in August with Samuel going .209/.308/.264 as the team dropped 16 of 29 and were down one to the Giants. In mid-August Samuel was dropped to sixth in the order, and while the team righted the ship, Samuel continued his second-half slide with a .241/.309/.393 September and into October.

With three games to go the Dodgers were tied with the Giants for the division lead and played the Giants in what amounted to a three-game playoff. The Dodgers lost the first two games 4-1 and 4-0. Samuel went 1-8, and the Dodgers missed the playoffs. The wisdom of having a mercurial, free-swinging (133 whiffs), poor fielding second baseman (17 errors and only 73 double plays turned) be the no. 2 hitter and one of your supposed two or three best offensive players was shown again to be, perhaps, not so wise.

No. 13: 1987 Eric Davis, Cincinnati Reds

First half: .321/.473/.694, 27 HRs, 68 RBIs, 33 SBs
Second half: .256/.381/.458, 10 HRs, 32 RBIs, 17 SBs

Davis was one of the most talented players of the era and a defining player for a few years. He was also somewhat fragile. That this was his historic season (the first 30 home run/50 stolen base season ever) and yet is also a season marred by a terribly mediocre second half is somewhat awesome and incredible. The 1987 Reds were up two-and-a-half games at the break despite a mediocre 47-41 record. Davis was having an historic year as he was amongst the leaders or leading in several individual categories. But the Reds were built around him, a 36-year-old Dave Parker and 35-year-old Buddy Bell.

No one in the Reds’ starting rotation won more than 10 games that year, and when Davis hit a cold patch in August and went .250/.363/.462 the team went from three games up on August 1 to a 9-20 month and saw themselves six down to the Giants at the end of the month. Davis missed about half of the final month of the season with an injury, and when he did play he was a shadow of his earlier self. The Reds finished six games out.

No. 12: 1980 Tom Paciorek, Seattle Mariners

First half: .351/.377/.572, 10 HRs, 32 RBIs (194 at-bats)
Second half: .205/.235/.308, 5 HRs, 27 RBIs (224 at-bats)

The 1980 Seattle Mariners stunk. They went 59-103, making them one of the worst teams in the past 30 years. They were, however, a less uniquely terrible 35-45 at the break. Paciorek started the year as a role player coming off the bench. However, his offensive contribution was such that on a team lacking warm bodies he eventually became a starter during mid-May when a five-game .588/.588/.941, 2 HRs, 6 RBIs stretch raised his average from .241 to .370. A week later he was hitting .400. Then he became what he had been his whole career. He was 33 and on his third team as a role player (he would actually go on to hit over .300 the next three seasons), and while he was a decent hitter he wasn’t exactly Wade Boggs. Reality and perhaps the heaviest workload of his career caught up with him. He bottomed out after the break and was toast in September hitting .224/.233/.241 as the Mariners won rarely with no contribution from him.

No. 11 1982 Rupert Jones, San Diego Padres

First half: .312/.416/.488, 11 HRs, 50 RBIs, 51 BBs
Second half: .223/.278/.295, 1 HR, 11 RBIs, 11 BBs

Rupert Jones story is only a bit different than Tom Paciorek. He had bounced around Seattle and New York (AL) as a decent if not particularly spectacular player. The 1982 Padres were a good team and were actually 50-36 at the break, just behind the 51-33 Atlanta Braves. Jones was an All-Star. The team rotated around Jones, catcher Terry Kennedy and Sixto Lezcano.

On July 28 Jones was injured. The Padres went 11-12 in his absence, yet somehow made up 5.5 games in the standings while Jones was sidelined to the point where they were only three-and-a-half games down upon his return. He clearly was not the same guy though. Until a season-ending injury in mid-September Jones managed only a paltry .220/.288/.290 with no home runs and six RBIs in 27 games, as the Padres sank out of playoff contention again nine games out at the time of his departure.

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Comments

  1. jim anderson said...

    Sonny boy, you should ask when the Cardinals (along with Bucs and Cubs) left the NL East. Along with the Montral Expos these teams made up the NL East. There was no NL Central (where the Cubs, Pirates and Cards now reside). It was a simpler time of two Divisions in each league and no Wild Card.

  2. Wooden U. Lykteneau said...

    Found it somewhat ironic that these two AL East [sic] catchers nosedived in the year of the “We Are Family” Pittsburgh Pirates

    <U>Now</U> do you understand my rhetorical question?

  3. Jim Anderson said...

    Wait. I just went back and re-read it. It says NL East. So, no, I guess I don’t understand the rhetorical question.

  4. Michael Eller said...

    Was Marquis Grissom really a nosedive? He was pretty terrible in the first half of the season as well.

  5. Jim Anderson said...

    Grissom, in the first half of the season, hit usually 5th or 6th for the Dodgers (he sort of hit all over the line-up but those were the two most common spots). He was hitting behind Lo Duca, Sheffied and Green all of whom had very good years for the Dodgers. He provided certainly more than what they were likely expecting by providing the sort of power and run production he did in the first half. The Dodgers had to know he was not going to be an on-base machine (his career OBP was .318) but they were likely more than content with a .260ish average, a .500+ slugging percent and good run production. In short, he was a good fit offensively for the type of team the Dodgers were. His second half is so bad (he finished dead last and second to last in BA and OBP-333rd and 332nd respectively for guys with 100 or more PAs), so historically bad especially for being on a contending club that, yes, he deserves special mention here even if his first half was not exactly All-Star caliber material.

  6. Mark D said...

    You got your 1991 NL West contenders mixed up.  It was Atlanta with whom the Dodgers were in the race with for the Division crown, not the Giants.  The Giants were horrible in 1991, finishing 75-87 and a full 19 games behind Atlanta.

    You did get one part right:  The Dodgers played San Francisco to close out the season, dropping 2 of 3 and losing the NL West title by 1 game.

  7. indian rest ex-pat said...

    So, I have read 11-20.  Most rational people count from 1-10 before 11-20.  Is the fact that the Red Sox are 8000 games out of first affecting your ability to count?  Or am I guilty of not having seen 1-10?

  8. Dave Studeman said...

    The editors chose to start with the bottom 10, as most rational “top whatever” lists start at the bottom.  The top 10 will follow soon.

  9. Jim Anderson said...

    You’re right on the ‘91 Dodgers/Braves/Giants standings. I crunched a ton of data and then started doing back stories on the numbers. I got intrigued by the symetry of the ‘91 and ‘01 Dodgers with Samuel and Grissom and it appears I substituted the not-so-good ‘91 Giants for the Braves in a fit of research and poor editing. Sorry about that. I just went back through the whole essay again and I don’t see any other times where I made an editorial error like that one. Mea culpa.

  10. Jim Anderson said...

    Indian Rest Ex-Pat,

    Are you referencing a street with your name as in Indian Rest Rd. in Harpswell, Maine or is that just coincidental?

  11. Colin said...

    Looks to me like you’re not including pitchers, but 2001 Ben Sheets has to be in the discussion.

    Split       W     L     W-L%    ERA     G     GS     CG     SHO     IP   WHIP
    1st Half   10   5   .667   3.59   16   16   1   1     100.1   1.355
    2nd Half   1   5   .167   7.06   9   9   0   0     51.0   1.529

  12. Jim Anderson said...

    I am working on pitcher data right now. I just got to 2001 and, believe me, that is a banner year for pitchers taking the gas pipe. Haven’t gotten into the stories behind the data but I am looking forward to it. There are some HOF names littering the data list right now so I am curious to see what my research shows as to what happened/possibly happened. I had Sheets picked out already but he, by no means, completely stands out with that inflated ERA and W-L record. If you want some raw data I would be hapy to provide it.

  13. Jim said...

    2005 was the year in which Brian Roberts suffered a ghastly elbow dislocation while applying a tag at first base.  He missed the last month or so of the season.  That at least partly explains the dramatic fall-off in his homers and rbis.

  14. Jim Anderson said...

    I remember Roberts injury but if I recall correctly I believe he suffered it in mid-late September and missed the last 10-12 games of the year. His HR rate was so prodigious compared to the rest of his career that I’m pretty sure it was reality catching up with him rahter than that ghastly season ending injury.

  15. David said...

    Awesome post Jim. Loved it. Like you, I’ve always been fascinated by second half debacles.  I don’t know if he made the top 10, but Kosuke Fukudome’s second half collapse was rather spectacular (though his month to month decline overall was incredible, so he probably doesn’t make the cut.)

    Another one I remember from growing up was a mid 1980’s Giants 3B named Chris Brown, that had one great first half, then tailed off and didn’t do much after that.

    Anyway, I look forward to the top 10. Should be interesting!

  16. Jim Anderson said...

    I sort of thought of Fukudome before I started doing the research but he turned out to be fairly garden variety:

    1st half: .279/.383/.408 7 HRs, 36 RBIs
    2nd half: .217/.314/.329 3 HRs, 22 RBIs

    He had a very productive April and tailed off each month from there which is not exactly unexpected. Also the Cubs went 35-21 in his two best months and 32-20 in his 2 worst months so he was relatively unimportant to the Cubs success.

    Chris Brown made the initial raw notes in 1986 with a dive of:

    1st half: .338/.405/.472 7 HRs, 35 RBIs
    2nd half: .279/.321/.327 0 HRs, 14 RBIs

    However, while not such a great line it really wasn’t even that close to the Top 20. He missed the whole last month of the season due to a shoulder injury that essentially sent his career into a tailspin. Wikipedia reports that, “Brown died at Memorial Hermann Hospital in Houston on December 26, 2006, nearly a month after he suffered burns in a fire on November 30 at a vacant house he owned in Sugar Land, Texas. He was 45 years of age. Police have never determined if his death was a homicide, suicide, or an accident.” Another good reason not to include him.

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