Trade aftermath: Lohse to Phils

Well, the rumors are flying now. Octavio Dotel to the Braves. Mark Teixeira to the Braves. Luis Castillo to the Mets. Jermaine Dye to the Red Sox. I won’t comment on these until they’re official, but most are looking close. The Phillies are staying active, too, acquiring starting pitcher Kyle Lohse in the first trade of the day.

Phillies get: SP Kyle Lohse
Reds get: P Matt Maloney (A-)
Quick outlook: Lohse gains a little value. Maloney’s value stays the same.
Indirectly affected: J.D. Durbin loses value. Bobby Livingston gains value. Phil Dumatrait gains value.

Analysis:
Lohse’s fly ball tendencies weren’t particularly suited for Great American Ball Park, but the move to Citizens Bank Park isn’t really an improvement. He will, however, be aided by having the Phillies offense supporting him, especially if the Reds trade Adam Dunn. The Phillies have scored the most runs of any NL team, while the Reds rank seventh. Of course, the Phillies did that with Chase Utley. Remember that they were also without Ryan Howard for a month. I think Lohse might be able to grab an extra win or two with the Phils.

Lohse doesn’t strike a lot of guys out (5.47 K/9), but his 4.17 LIPS ERA isn’t terrible. In 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues he should be owned. J.D. Durbin, whom I cautioned against in the NL Waiver Wire, will lose his rotation spot. Hopefully you weren’t owning him, anyway.

The Reds rotation will likely consist of Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Matt Belisle, Bobby Livingston, and quite possibly Phil Dumatrait, at least until Homer Bailey gets healthy.

Livingston, while more secure in his rotation spot, still isn’t a good pickup. He struck out only 4.59 batters per game in Triple-A last year and didn’t get a ton of ground balls. His control is pretty good, but he should be owned only in very deep NL-only leagues. Dumatrait isn’t a much better bet. In nearly 200 Triple-A innings this year and last, he put up a K/9 under 6.00 and a BB/9 over 3.50. He should be avoided except in the deepest leagues. One of these two will likely lose his spot (probably Dumatrait) once Homer Bailey gets healthy.

Maloney is in low A, so he can be ignored for fantasy purposes this year.

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