Trader’s corner: week zero

Welcome to Trader’s Corner, your one-stop shop for bargains and busts. I’ve partnered with our good friend Oliver to look at the recent performances of a few players and why they could present a major profit opportunity for you. This won’t just be your typical buy high/sell low column, though. As much opportunity as those situations may present, we’ll also try to identify the hot streaks that figure to last and the cold spells that could spell doom.

Every two weeks, I’ll look at a pair of players in each of four categories: Buy High, Buy Low, Sell High, and Sell Low. The first player will be my own selection and the the second based strictly on the Oliver projections.

Trader’s Corner is geared toward those owners who have already constructed their teams and are trying to find ways of improving their rosters. But fret not, tardy drafters; you too may find some pearls for your upcoming draft or auction.

I’ll keep a tally of all my recommendations, the date I made them, and the players’ performances from that point forward. From time to time, I’ll share the results in an attempt to evaluate how I’m faring and if there are trends to be found.

Each entry will include the player’s Rest of Season Oliver projection in the standard rotisserie categories (in the format AVG-R-RBI-HR-SB for hitters and W/SV-ERA-WHIP-K for pitchers). Also provided will be the accompanying projected dollar values according to THT Forecasts’ Custom Price Guide for both the standard Yahoo! and ESPN formats.

Dollar values are based on a $260 draft budget with $2 allocated to each bench spot and a 70/30 hitter/pitcher split.

For the first few weeks of the year I’ll also include Average Auction Cost (AAC) figures for both ESPN and Yahoo, since they provide a reference for each player’s market price heading into the season.

Buy High

Buying high is one of the most difficult and frequently overlooked strategies at a fantasy manager’s disposal. We all love to discuss player trends that look promising in the offseason, but somehow, once the season begins, every sample size becomes too small and every unexpected performance a matter of mere luck. The consensus bias shifts from heavily weighting recent performance and “upside” to nigh unshakable temperance and prudence. For the savvy, risk-seeking owner, this can present a great deal of profit opportunity.

For this edition’s Buy High, we’ll look at a high priced outfielder who may actually be undervalued and a pitcher I was shocked to find at the top of Oliver’s projected rankings.

My pick: Justin Upton
Yahoo! AAC: $38
ESPN AAC: $32
Oliver says: .293-98-97-28-22
Oliver’s Yahoo! value: $48
Oliver’s ESPN value: $35

It’s hard to find profit in the upper ranks, but outside of the top five or six players, Justin Upton may be the most likely to work his way into the conversation for next year’s top overall pick. Already established as a five-category performer at the ripe age of 25, he seemingly has everything going for him.

In 2011, Upton set career-best marks in both ISO and strikeout percentage—a common theme you’ll find among Buy High hitters. There’s room for improvement in his stolen base success rate, but he actually was actually worse in 2010 than 2011 and there’s no indication he’ll be getting the red light any time soon. He also has a cushy lineup spot, a solid supporting cast, and while Chase Field is a great ballpark for hitters (1.146 home run park factor in 2011 according to ESPN), in Upton’s case it may not even matter.

If you were to speculate, who would you think, on average, hit the longest home runs last year? The most common guess I’ve come across is Giancarlo Stanton, but according to ESPN Hit Tracker, it’s wrong (he was second). The correct answer is Justin Upton. His 31 home runs averaged a whopping 423.65 feet in 2011. His average home run was over 423 feet. Let that sink in.

Oliver agrees that Upton may, in fact, be undervalued this year. This is particularly true in the Yahoo! standard format, where Oliver sees potential for a $10 profit—a stunning figure for someone who costs so much.

If you feel your outfield could use a major face lift, Justin Upton makes a fine target.

Oliver’s Pick: Yu Darvish
Yahoo! AAC: $16
ESPN AAC: $10
Oliver says: 15-2.60-0.98-201
Oliver’s Yahoo! value: $40
Oliver’s ESPN value: $35

Oliver takes a somewhat unique approach to projecting players with little-to-no major league experience, and has historically been successful at doing so. Still, it’s stunning to see Darvish listed as this year’s top projected fantasy pitcher.

Oliver thinks that Darvish can make the transition from Nippon Professional Baseball to the harsh environs of the Ballpark at Arlington seamlessly, becoming an instant fantasy ace in the process. This will be an interesting test for how Oliver handles pitchers from the Japanese ranks, but based on these projections and prices, Darvish sure seems worth a gamble.

While I tentatively trust Oliver’s bullish attitude towards the Japanese right-hander, its obviously foolish to expect a pitcher with zero major league experience to be the most valuable arm in the game. Specifically, there’s one major uncertainty I’m not convinced Oliver is properly accounting for—the difference between the seven-day schedule of Japanese baseball and the five-day schedule of American baseball.

Even if Darvish isn’t the best pitcher in the majors for the 2012 season, there’s clearly profit opportunity here. If you’re more inclined to invest risk than dollars to try to beef up your fantasy pitching staff, there are few better targets than Darvish.

Buy Low

Everyone loves a buy low candidate. The problem is the owner who owns the buy low candidate usually loves him too, so you may not be able to buy as low as you wish you could. Still, it’s always helpful to identify guys who could see their performance improve in the not-too-distant future.

Let’s take a peek at a pair of outfielders who saw their stock fall considerably over the course of last season, but could very easily bounce back in 2012.

My Pick: Jason Heyward
Yahoo! AAC: $13
ESPN AAC: $9
Oliver says: .270-85-81-22-11
Oliver’s Yahoo! value: $19
Oliver’s ESPN value: $19

It was merely a year ago that Heyward was the National League’s version of Eric Hosmer—a sure-fire stud on the rise who did a little bit of everything. He was a bigger prospect thanMike Stanton or Jesus Montero, and everyone was sure that if anyone could avoid the cliché sophmore slump, it was Heyward.

A year and a bum shoulder later and Heyward is caught in fantasy purgatory—not quite an afterthought but not someone anyone really wants to talk too much about either. So lets talk about him.

Even with the shoulder injury, not a whole lot beneath the surface of Heyward’s offensive profile changed. His ISO and home runs per fly ball both dropped, but not substantially. His batting average was a miserable .227, but his BABIP was an equally miserable .260, though much of that can be attributed to his ugly 21.8 percent infield fly ball rate. Still, he did manage to hit 14 homers, steal nine bases, and keep his walk rate north of 10 percent through 456 plate appearances. That’s plenty to like from a 22-year-old who was baseball’s top overall prospect less than two years ago.

There is obviously plenty of room for growth from Heyward as well, but the one significant wart he had in 2010 did remain in 2011—his unsightly 50 percent groundball rate. Hitting 20 homers would be a feat in itself with a rate like that, but it does suggest that if and when the young slugger starts putting more balls in the air, he could put up some gaudy power totals.

Oliver sees Heyward as roughly a $20 player for 2012. While lingering injury concerns still exist, all signs are go for his health so far this spring. I wholeheartedly endorse targeting him as an outfield asset this season. If he’s your third outfielder in a 12-team league, you’re well ahead of the game.

Oliver’s Pick: Angel Pagan
Yahoo! AAC: $1
ESPN AAC: $3
Oliver says: .278-81-59-9-28
Oliver’s Yahoo! value: $10
Oliver’s ESPN value: $15

Oliver is pretty confused as to why the fantasy baseball community is sleeping on Pagan, and we should all thank Oliver for pointing him out to us, myself included.

The line Oliver projects for Pagan is in no way outlandish—it’s pretty much right smack in between his stellar 2010 and his poor 2011 and probably even rates as slightly conservative on the stolen base front. Pagan should hit leadoff in an improved Giants lineup, which means plate appearances and stolen base opportunities aplenty.

AT&T park isn’t an ideal environment for any hitter, but neither was Citi Field—Pagan’s former home. Power isn’t Pagan’s game, but he’s already shown that even in a poor hitting environment he can chip in enough four-baggers to keep from sinking your power totals.

The back end of the outfield ranks are not exactly rich with talent this year, and finding a tidy $9-12 profit from a player like Pagan could go a long way toward completing a competitive roster, especially one that needs a touch of speed and a few extra runs.

Sell High

There may be nothing more satisfying in fantasy baseball than selling a player at his peak value, only to watch him crash and burn for another owner while you reap the benefits of said owner’s former studs. It happens every year—whether it was Michael Pineda‘s second half swoon in 2011 or that time that closer saved 20 games in the first half only to blow four in a row and lose his job. You remember that guy, right?

For today’s Sell High, we’ve got a couple of infielders who are looming a bit too large on some owners’ fantasy radars.

My Pick: Mark Teixeira
Yahoo! AAC: $29
ESPN AAC: $25
Oliver says: .255-74-88-28-0
Oliver’s Yahoo! value: $12
Oliver’s ESPN value: $11

Mark Teixeira is someone both Oliver and I feel may hit a sudden and sharp decline, and that it may be soon. The only difference between our opinions is that Oliver doesn’t see Teixeira reaching 600 plate appearances, while I do. Otherwise we’re right on the same page, and we agree that there’s far more risk than reward left in the slugger’s bat.

On the surface, Teixiera seems like your typical three-category slugger. He’ll hit his share of homers and help himself to plenty of counting numbers batting in the heart of the potent Yankees lineup. Unfortunately, age may be catching up to both Teixeira and his teammates, costing him in both departments.

While some point to Teixiera’s low BABIP in 2011 as reason for optimism in 2012, consider the following trends:

Year    BABIP   HR Avg True Dis   HR Avg Spd
2007    .342         415.5          106.9
2008    .316         398.2          104.1
2009    .302         399.3          104.0
2010    .268         393.4          103.5
2011    .239         386.9          102.6

The two right hand columns above represent the “Average True Distance” and “Average Speed off Bat” of Teixeira’s home runs for each of the corresponding seasons (data courtesy of ESPN Hit Tracker). Not only has his BABIP declined in four consecutive seasons, but the distance and velocity with which he’s been hitting his home runs has declined in an incredibly corollary manner. In 2011, the American League averages for home run distance and speed were 394.7 and 103.4, respectively. For the first time in his career, Teixiera was well worse than the league in both marks.

In fairness, Teixeira’s 2007 BABIP was way above his career norm, and the subsequent drop can be written off to regression to a large extent. Still, the same can’t be said for the subsequent drops, and it does seem as though he’s gone from one of the preeminent sluggers in the game to someone who absolutely requires the short right field porch in Yankee Stadium to keep his power numbers aloft. He’s simply not hitting balls with as much authority as he used to, and as such, I would advise caution in regressing his BABIP too far.

Teixeira’s fantasy production is now directly tied to his ability to produce the long ball. If his power drops off, the results for your fantasy season could be disastrous. Even if he hits .260 with 30 home runs, you’d be better off with fellow aging slugger Paul Konerko, who is less of a liability in batting average and has shown fewer dents in the armor in recent years.

If he falls off the way Oliver and I are predicting, Teixeira would be one of the largest potential drains on your fantasy wallet this year. Let someone else take that risk—sell high while you can.

Oliver’s Pick: Howie Kendrick
Yahoo! AAC: $15
ESPN AAC: $9
Oliver says: .277-62-58-10-10
Oliver’s Yahoo! value: N/A
Oliver’s ESPN value: $2

While he’s a popular sleeper in some quarters, Oliver sees almost no value in Kendrick this year. In fact, in the MI-less Yahoo standard format, Oliver sees Kendrick as worth less than $1, not even bothering to rank him in the price guide.

Why the hatred? Well, for one, Oliver sees Kendrick getting merely 519 plate appearances, putting a serious dent in his fairly balanced skill set. But even if we assume he’ll crack 600 plate appearances (something he’s done only once in his career, for the record) and add 20 percent across the board to that projection, it takes him only to a line of .277-74-70-12-12. That’s still a modest return on a $15 investment.

The problems Oliver sees are two-fold. First, Kendrick’s strikeout rate shot up last year. Second, the system doesn’t lend much credence to the power gains he made.

I agree that both issues are troubling, though not nearly to the same extent. Despite hitting 18 homers in 2011, Kendrick still pounded the the ball into the ground more than 50 percent of the time. If this didn’t come at the cost of all the added whiffs, I might be calling Kendrick a sleeper myself. The problem is all those whiffs will make it much harder for Kendrick to produce the batting average profit some are still hoping for, and the high quantity of ground balls also mean it’s unlikely he repeats his home run total from 2011.

The best case scenario for Kendrick would be if he reverted to his old game of avoiding strikeouts while hitting the occasional home run and stealing the occasional base. This could well put him in the $10-15 range. Unfortunately, the changes to his profile from last year don’t add a whole lot of upside, and they do add a bit of risk. If another owner is buying the power gains and still seeing the batting average upside, there may never be a better time to sell.

Sell Low

If selling high is one of the most enjoyable acts of a fantasy baseball season, selling low is one of the most painful. Admitting sunk cost is difficult, but there is opportunity in these situations when the admission is managed. Many times other owners will pay above a player’s projected value out of a misguided instinct to buy low or on name value alone. Even if the return price is below the price you paid, it may still be well more than the price you’d earn in keeping a broken player on your roster.

Finding sell low candidates for week zero has proven quite a challenge. Thanks to a powerful combination of Loss Aversion and the Halo Effect, negative trends are given much more weight than they deserve. Players who are trending downwards are almost universally devalued, whether justified or not. This creates lots of buy low opportunity, but scant sell low opportunity. This is especially true during the offseason, when all we can do with all the information we have is let it simmer.

Once the season begins and new trends emerge, things change. People will have less time to inundate themselves with analysis on how Francisco Liriano‘s no hitter wasn’t actually a very well pitched game or why Chris Perez didn’t really have a very good year. Everything happens at a faster pace, meaning markets have less time to adjust.

Despite my struggles, I did find someone worth discussing, and Oliver had quite a few suggestions as well. So let’s look at a pair of pitchders being drafted at a much lower price than they were last year, but might still be better served off of your team than on it.

My Pick: Ubaldo Jimenez
Yahoo! AAC: $5
ESPN AAC: $9
Oliver says: 14-3.56-1.25-219
Oliver’s Yahoo! value: $11
Oliver’s ESPN value: $13

My first major disagreement with Oliver in this series, Jimenez is also a popular sleeper pick in some circles. It’s that very reason that I’m calling him a sell low candidate.

Proponents of the Ubaldo Jimenez sleeper campaign are quick to point out that both his strikeout and walk rates have been relatively stable, and that he’s still only a year removed from fantasy acehood.

The first problem with this is that his 2010 season was at least as much of a mirage as his 2011 season, just in the other direction. Even in 2010, he had a 3.60 xFIP and 3.68 SIERA. Those numbers are solid, but considering the declining run environment they’re more middle-of-the-pack than ace-like for fantasy purposes.

The second is that a stable 10 percent walk rate is not a good thing. That’s a WHIP-killing mark, and I’m quite surprised to see Oliver expect such a nominal WHIP from Jimenez.

The third is that his velocity, swinging strike rate, and first pitch strike rate all took a major nosedive in 2011. In fact, all three were the worst marks of his career. He wasn’t throwing as hard, was getting ahead in the count less frequently, and got fewer swings and misses than ever before. So even though his strikeouts remained solid last year, there’s quite a bit of sneaky risk here as well.

In checking the other projection systems available on Jimenez’s FanGraphs player page, it does turn out that Oliver is more optimistic than any of the six projections featured (Steamer, Bill James, RotoChamp, Marcel, Fan Projection and ZiPS) in all four rotisserie categories. They all still see him as a reasonable value at this cost, but to an extent, they help vindicate my side of this disagreement.

Just to be clear—I do think that at this draft cost Jimenez is a fair value. I just know a lot of other people think he’s actually undervalued. I see him as something like the ‘anti-Jeremy Hellickson‘—a guy who looks like he was very unlucky in 2011 but whose components could also regress toward his surface numbers rather than vice versa. That’s a risk a lot of very savvy owners are missing. If you own Jimenez, take advantage of it and sell him while you can still get some positive value compared to his actual projections.

Oliver’s Pick: Jon Lester
Yahoo! AAC: $24
ESPN AAC: $16
Oliver Says: 13-3.68-1.27-203
Oliver’s Yahoo! Value: $8
Oliver’s ESPN Value: $11

Once a lock to be a Top 50 draft selection, a combination of small losses across the board and the declining run environment have caused some of the shine to wear off on Jon Lester’s fantasy prospects. Even worse, Oliver sees him as having nowhere to go but down.

Oliver actually views Lester as inferior to my pick, Ubaldo Jimenez. Although I politely disagree, there are some striking similarities.

Like Jimenez, Lester has never been a control guy. In 2010 and 2011, his walk rate started inching up toward the double-digit range, reaching about 9.5 percent both years. In 2011, his strikeouts dropped off a bit as well, from an excellent 26 percent rate in the previous two seasons to a still solid, but less-than-spectacular 22 percent. This was also supported by a decline in swinging strikes and a drop in velocity, so it may be more than just statistical noise.

If you were too tempted by Lester’s appearance on your draft board in the fifth or sixth round to pass, Oliver would suggest that now is the time to cash that value in and try to find a payoff elsewhere.

THT Forecasts

If you’re curious about the projections and dollar values provided, make sure to check out the THT Forecasts section. For $14.95, you get full access to the Oliver projections for thousands of major and minor leaguers, including six year Major League Equivalency forecasts on every player card. And best of all for us fantasy junkies, you get full access to THT’s Custom Fantasy Price Guides, which allows you to create your own price guide based on your league settings and play-style preferences using the Oliver projections, with projections and dollar values updated throughout the season.

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Comments

  1. Mark Himmelstein said...

    @SDPads

    Tough one. Since its an OPS League Upton loses some of his advantage over Fielder. They’re close plays in AVG but Fielder is the better bet in OPS. I’d still prefer Upton in a vacuum but its closer. Upton is a better long term keeper because he’s younger, but if there’s a cost to keep and limited keepers I’m not sure it makes a huge difference.

    I’d say you could go either way. Assuming its 5 OF, you could definitely use one more solid outfielder, but it doesn’t have to be nearly so big. On the other hand, you do have options at first base that you can mix and match with. If I had to give an answer I’d probably say do it, and then try to move one of Kemp, Upton, or McCutchen for a couple lesser pieces including more of a true first baseman—maybe an upside guy like Hosmer, Goldschmidt (both of whom will provide some sneaky speed) or Davis—and an outfielder to fill it out. That could take some wrangling though and I’d probably see if something like that is out there if you have some time to decide.

  2. SDPads said...

    So I assume you’d trade Fielder to get Upton in a keeper league that uses OPS rather than AVG (other offensive cats are standard)?  I’d be forced to use Morales/Encarnacion/Duda/Reynolds at 1B (and Encarnacion at 3B if I move Reynolds to 1b).  My OF is pretty strong at the top with Kemp and McCutchen, but from there drops down to Morales (yes Yahoo league), Cain and Pagan.  Team is fairly weak in SB but pretty big on power.  If I got Upton I would also likely get rid of 1 of Cain or Pagan….perhaps I use one of them as a throw in??

  3. Mark Himmelstein said...

    @napster

    The change in strength of the Angels’ linuep—particularly the part that figures to be directly behind Kendrick—is a valid factor that Oliver misses. Its a big part of why its highly unlikely he’s worth $0-2 as Oliver projects.

    Dustin Pedroia numbers don’t seem likely though. Pedroia does everything better—he makes more contact, draws more walks, hits for more power, doesn’t hit as many grounders, etc.

    Kendrick will likely score more than 80 runs hitting ahead of Pujols, but 90 is pushing it. He’s not an efficient base stealer and doesn’t walk enough. Only two players scored 90 runs last year with an OBP below .340—Melky Cabrera (who had over 700 plate appearances) and Austin Jackson (who was a much more efficient base stealer than Kendrick’s been over his career and also had 668 plate appearances). 90 is possible, but I wouldn’t count on it.

    The other factor here is that second base is, as it often seems to be, much deeper than its given credit for. You can get Kelly Johnson ($13 Oliver projection, plus is slated to hit ahead of Jose Bautista) or Danny Espinosa ($11 Oliver projection) for quite a bit less, not to mention a very similar projection out of Mike Aviles (.269-55-56-11-11 in just 485 plate appearances, now officially the Red Sox starting shortstop) who also carries shortstop and third base eligiblity instead of first base and outfield. Bobby Valentine is even rumbling about possibly hitting Aviles leadoff.

  4. Mark Himmelstein said...

    @napster

    Also, I’m not convinced the change in lineup strength will drastically alter Kendrick’s (or any hitter’s) approach. There’s a lot of research that suggests the effect of lineup “protection” is more myth than fact, and Kendrick in particular isn’t known for his selectivity (though he’s a bit less of a free swinger than you’d think based on his low walk rate).

    What it may mean is that he’ll see more fastballs, and while he is a good fastball hitter, he’s actually been better against the curve and splitter on a per pitch basis through his career, so I’m not sure how much this helps him in aggregate. Pitchers also know he’s not one to take many walks, so I doubt their approach to pitching him will be drastically altered out of fear of putting him on base ahead of the big boppers.

    I’m sticking with my initial theory that of much greater consequence will be his ability to get his strikeout rate back under control and his high ground ball rate.

  5. shmmrname said...

    Loved the article – and not just because I have Upton ($30) and Pagan ($1) in the same OF. I am always looking to trade, and I’ve made it clear to every manager in the league why. I’m a “volume-trader” that relies on my ability to win in the long-term after multiple trades rather than trying to do 1 or 2 trades that are lopsided. But, BUY-LOW / SELL-HIGH is often the easiest to discern. The areas in-between can provide profit and flexibility too.

  6. napster said...

    I disagree with the assessment of Howie Kendrick.  The Oliver projection only looks at the effect of a player only through the players stats.  The impact on that player by the rest of the team is very important when you have a player with an above average skill-set and a lot of MLB experience.

    The Addition of Pujols and Kendry Morales to the Angel lineup will amplify the stats of the rest the team.  The Oliver projections does not take this into account.

    With Kendrick in the two-hole position, in front of Pujols/Morales/Wells/Trumbo you can add 20 more runs and rbis to the projection.  He’ll also be able to be more selective as well with Pujols right behind him, so I say that Average is closer to .300 and probably over.

    I think he’ll approximate Pedroia’s stats this year. 

    The knock on Howie is that he’s injured a lot, and that was true in the early part of Howie’s 6 year career.  But what Second Basemen not-named Cano hasn’t been injured in the last six years?  Howie’s had at least 140 games in the last 2 years. Howie is as good a bet as any other 2B to play more than 140 games.

  7. Mark Himmelstein said...

    @shmmrname

    Thanks! There will definitely be more to come.

    I wouldn’t call myself a “volume trader,” but I’m on the extremely active side of the general activity spectrum, including trades and negotiations.

  8. $250MillionMercenary said...

    I am so glad I stumbled on Razzball. Very insightful, informative and entertaining. Thanks.

    I made two trades yesterday with the same manager. 16-team, H2H, 6×6 league with Holds and OPS as the extra categories. Keeper league where 4 are kept for free first year, and $5 more per year for unlimited years. Here’s essentially what happened after the two trades. Looking for advice.

    I got: Kimbrel ($20), Jennings ($12), LaTroy Hawkins ($1), Jose Veras ($1), Anthony Rizzo ($1) and Adam LaRoche ($1)

    I gave: Alexei Ramirez ($15), Michael Bourn ($11), Josh Beckett ($13), Jason Motte ($9), Brett Myers ($7), and Brandon McCarthy ($3).

    All prices are according to what will need to be paid to keep them in 2013. Whaddya think?

  9. $250MillionMercenary said...

    For reference, here’s how my team looks now, after $260 draft/trades:

    Soto ($6)
    Pujols ($59)
    Espinosa ($6)
    Bautista ($49)
    Aybar ($14)
    Andino ($1)
    Hamilton ($28)
    Jennings ($12)
    Kendrys Morales ($15)
    Carlos Beltran ($11)
    Adam LaRoche ($1)
    Anthony Rizzo ($1)

    Adam Wainwright ($7)
    Marcum ($6)
    Walden ($13)
    Kimbrel ($20)
    Wood ($1)
    Uehera ($1)
    Veras ($1)
    Hawkins ($1)
    Danks ($5)
    Billingsley ($1)
    Stauffer ($2)
    Colby Lewis ($3)
    Peavy ($1)

  10. Mark Himmelstein said...

    @$250MillionMercenary

    I like your side better for the long haul thanks to Rizzo and Jennings, but for this year I think you’re weaker. You invested a lot to get a few holds, and you look quite a bit weaker at SP and MI without Ramirez and Beckett. Motte and McCarthy were also decent potential keepers and should be good this year too for this format. I don’t see Jennings as superior to Bourn in the short term, but things should look better on that front next year, and hopefully by then Rizzo will be looking like a stud.

    Also, word of advice, don’t copy and paste your comments from other blogs when you’re asking for advice…unless you also thanked Grey for all the wonderful work we do here at THT wink.

  11. $250MillionMercenary said...

    Oh, man. I’m a fool. That’s what I get for having so many tabs open.

    Sorry, Mark. I clearly value your advice, since I was (and am) surfing your site. I apologize for the error.

    Thanks so much for your comments.

  12. Mark Himmelstein said...

    @$250MillionMercenary

    Ha, No worries! I enjoy the rantings and ravings of Grey and Rudy and the gang over there as much as anyone. Just couldn’t help calling it out.

    Honestly, I’m probably not your guy for holds league advice. I rarely play in one and its not my cup-o-tea. Just feels to me like its a forced category to expand the reliever pool, but the difference between elite and replacement level (in Holds by itself) is so small it doesn’t add much strategy or tactics to the game as a roto cat and just winds up kind of being a nuisance. It creates a bit more incentive to put dominant relievers on your roster, but there’s actually good incentive to do that anyway in standard roto (see Jeffrey’s LIMA series for more on that), and it also adds the unnecessary incentive of rostering mediocre relievers just for Holds.

    If you want a league to neutralize the closer/non-closer issue, I’d recommend a points based league that either counts holds or doesn’t count wins and saves (just outcomes, like homers, walks, singles, doubles, etc as negatives against outs/innings and strikeouts as positives) and has a number of dedicated RP spots. If you are counting Holds in a league like that, at least there you’re not forced to diversify into the cat, but rather you can take advantage of it if the advantage is there and you’re not necessarily punished if you’re light on them.

    So it may be that getting Veras and Hawkins helps balance your deal out in the short term and I’m not giving that enough credit, but to me they just look like mediocre relievers, and Hawkins in particular is just a holds-only guy who offers nothing else. At least Veras gives you Ks and has some upside, but with Hawkins you might as well just pick up some generic LOOGY and get something similar if not better.

    As for advice on how to proceed, SP and MI look like your biggest weaknesses (assuming you’re playing with MI and you have Andino there). Wainwright and Marcum should be okay, but they’re both somewhat risky and there’s not much upside behind them. And at MI, replacement level is so low in a league this deep, and that’s basically what Andino is.

    CI, outfield and Holds are where you’re deepest, so I might look to leverage someone there into an upgrade, with MI the priority and try and tack a higher upside SP on the back end. At least at those positions the replacement level still has some meat on it if you wind up there, and there should still be some upside on the wire at those positions that you won’t find at MI.

    Hope that helps,
    Good luck!

  13. $250MillionMercenary said...

    Fantastic advice. That’s the way I see it, too. I already dropped Hawkins for Juan Nicasio ($1) last night.

    Also, I appreciate your contributions to the Holds discussion. I’m well-versed in LIMA, and completely agree that MR guys are more valuable than they seem in shallower leagues. However, this is a 16-team deep league, and by having 3 plus Holds guys that give me decent ratios and Ks, I have a clear advantage over my opponent, just as I would if I had 3 plus saves.

    Truthfully, I don’t like Alexei or Bourn as much as the next guy either. I’ve been burned by Alexei so much in the past that I only drafted him because I needed a MI, and he came at a decent price at a decent time. Bourn is great for SBs, but so is Jennings and I don’t punt HRs at the CF position by using Jennings. Plus, he’s a cheaper player on the rise to boot. Kimbrel gives me a closer to flip if I need to in an effort to improve at MI or SP if needed, but the waivers are fairly deep with up-and-comers.

    Thanks again for your advice. I still regret the mishap, but just know that your advice is just the thing I was looking for. Appreciate it.

    $250

  14. Jeff W. said...

    Great, great, great column. Excellent concept and excellent execution. Consider this space added to the bookmarks file.

    While not a trade question in the traditional sense, I could use some advice (peanut gallery advice is welcome as well) regarding waiver wire pitchers.

    Details: 12-team mixed keeper league; 25-player roster, 3 DL, 7×6 roto scoring (5×5 plus OBP, SLG, and HLD). My front four SP: Dan Haren, Corey Lubeke, Max Scherzer, and Jaime Garcia. I filled out the last two spots in my rotation thusly:

    Bud Norris (player #261 off the board)
    Erik Bedard (#285)

    Seizing a narrow window of opportunity, I cut my last-round pick, Fernando Salas (#290), to add some DL-depth:

    Scott Baker (SP – DL)
    Chris Carpenter (SP – DL)

    A note on relievers: I scooped up Jon Rauch (RP – NY “Mess”) in hopes of vulturing a few April saves. The rest of my bullpen: Sergio Santos, Jason Motte, Jim Johnson, Mike Adams, and Koji Uhera.

    I can’t help but think I’m already in a bit of ratio trouble. The odds of hitting my targets of a 3.40 ERA/1.22 WHIP seem very low, but those risks are a bit stablized with Santos, Adams, and Uhera.

    Further, my Wins target (90) also seems out of reach. I intentionally turned off the “win detector” in my brain during the draft. Now I wish I’d been a little more sensitive to it.

    In this context, would you cut either Norris or Bedard for any of the following (all of whom are on the waiver wire):

    Jair Jurrjens
    Gavin Floyd
    Alexi Ogando
    Jonathan Sanchez
    Jeff Niemann

    I know I need ratio and W help, but I am a hopelessly cheap date for Ks, and I set a 1330+ K target). Seeing Jonathan Sanchez out there – in a nice pitchers park, routinely facing mediocre divisional rivals (except Detriot) – makes my trigger finger itchy.

    Your thoughts?

  15. Mark Himmelstein said...

    @Jeff W.

    Thanks for the kind words!

    Personally, I don’t like to set static targets like that. I understand why some do, but it’s not to my strengths. I’m too disorganized a thinker and there are too many variables go into a fantasy season, I find it simpler to try to hit moving targets rather than static ones. That may sound counter-intuitive, but it reduces the number of variables you have to count and decreases the risks of counting them twice.

    In a draft or acquisition situation, I just try and isolate needs and look at differenes between potential outcomes. If I judge an acquisition as an improvement over the status quo (and not necessarily in a roto-points-only sense, also in terms of decisions an acquisition might entail further down the line), I make it. If not, I don’t. That type of abstraction lends more to my personal strengths as a fantasy player, and is more how my advice tends to be geared.

    Your situation is a good example of why I avoid static targets. I don’t see your pitching staff as a significant weakness—it’s not a dominant staff but it’s a solid foundation. Haren is a four-category stud, Luebke will give you everything but wins, Scherzer will give you K’s and W’s, and Garcia will fill out your innings without hurting you anywhere. You need one, maybe two more starters to produce good results and it’s a very competitive staff, and you at least partly, if not wholly accomplish that with a strong relief corps.

    If I were to drop one of Bedard or Norris, it would be Norris. Bedard is more injury prone, but also the better pitcher and Pittsburgh is a better fantasy situation than Houston.

    I don’t think I’d drop either for any of the names you list.

    I might check the wire to see if someone like Jon Niese, Juan Nicasio, or Danny Duffy is available (they frequently are in leagues of this depth). Niese could be very similar to Garcia—a bit of upside with a very good chance of just filling out your innings without doing damage to any category. Nicasio has a bit more upside, and Duffy has even more, but the amount of risk increases proportionately as well. I still don’t see Duffy’s floor as substantially lower than Sanchez’s, but his ceiling is substantially higher (especially outside of K’s).

    I might take one of that group over Norris, but I’d probably still hold Bedard.

    Good luck!

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