Two True Outcomes

A concept we’re all familiar with is the “Three True Outcomes”: the base on balls, the strikeout, and the home run. These are the plays that are genuine mano-a-mano duels between batter and pitcher only, with no participation by a fielder. Batters who are above average in accumulating walks, strikeouts, and home runs are Three True Outcomes heroes.

That’s all well and good, I suppose. But come on. Let’s not be ashamed to admit the truth: Walks are for wimps. What’s really macho are the Two True Outcomes: the home run and the strikeout.

That’s it, baby. No wishy-washy middle ground here. All or nuthin’. Your Two True Outcomes heroes don’t mess around with such passiveness as taking pitches. These guys just go for it.

So let’s give a full, no half-measures salute to the Titans of Two True Outcomes.

2TOQ

I devised a simple little formula for measuring a batter’s devotion to the Two True Outcomes:

((Home Runs/Hits) + (Strikeouts/At-Bats)) – (Walks/At-Bats)

Lotsa taters with a lousy batting average = Good. Lotsa whiffs = Good. Lotsa surrender monkey walks = Bad. I call the stat Two True Outcomes Quotient, or 2TOQ.

Long Careers

Here are the 2TOQ immortals, with careers of at least 4,000 plate appearances:

Player               Years     PA    AB     H   HR    BB    SO    BA  HR/H  SO/AB  BB/AB  2TOQ
Rob Deer         1984-1996   4456  3881   853  230   575  1409  .220  .270   .363   .148  .485
Dave Kingman     1971-1986   7285  6677  1575  442   608  1816  .236  .281   .272   .091  .462
Pete Incaviglia  1986-1998   4593  4233  1033  206   360  1277  .244  .199   .302   .085  .416
Sammy Sosa       1989-2004   8877  8021  2220  574   856  2110  .277  .259   .263   .107  .415
Mark McGwire     1986-2001   7504  6187  1626  583  1317  1596  .263  .359   .258   .213  .404
Dean Palmer      1989-2003   5404  4902  1229  275   502  1332  .251  .224   .272   .102  .393
Jose Canseco     1985-2001   7963  7057  1877  462   906  1942  .266  .246   .275   .128  .393
Gorman Thomas    1973-1986   5374  4677  1051  268   697  1339  .225  .255   .286   .149  .392
Dick Stuart      1958-1969   4298  3997  1055  228   301   957  .264  .216   .239   .075  .380
Tony Armas       1976-1989   5424  5164  1302  251   260  1201  .252  .193   .233   .050  .375
Todd Hundley     1990-2003   4305  3769   883  202   453   988  .234  .229   .262   .120  .371
Jose Hernandez   1991-2004   4590  4232  1072  159   358  1291  .253  .148   .305   .085  .369
Jay Buhner       1987-2001   5805  5013  1273  310   792  1406  .254  .244   .280   .158  .366
Cecil Fielder    1985-1998   5850  5157  1313  319   693  1316  .255  .243   .255   .134  .364
Greg Vaughn      1989-2003   6968  6103  1475  355   865  1513  .242  .241   .248   .142  .347
A. Galarraga     1985-2004   8679  8096  2333  399   583  2003  .288  .171   .247   .072  .346
Reggie Jackson   1967-1987  11239  9864  2584  563  1375  2597  .262  .218   .263   .139  .342
Willie Stargell  1962-1982   8864  7927  2232  475   937  1936  .282  .213   .244   .118  .339
D. Strawberry    1983-1999   6234  5418  1401  335   816  1352  .259  .239   .250   .151  .338
Matt Williams    1987-2003   7595  7000  1878  378   469  1363  .268  .201   .195   .067  .329
Frank Howard     1958-1973   7270  6488  1774  382   782  1460  .273  .215   .225   .121  .320
Wally Post       1949-1964   4338  4007  1064  210   331   813  .266  .197   .203   .083  .318
Lee May          1965-1982   8219  7609  2031  354   487  1570  .267  .174   .206   .064  .317
Charles Johnson  1994-2004   4330  3790   931  167   466   986  .246  .179   .260   .123  .317
Gus Zernial      1949-1959   4514  4131  1093  237   383   755  .265  .217   .183   .093  .307

Deer walked a fair amount, of course, but he was just so extreme in the HR, BA, and SO categories that we can’t hold it against him too much. And as for Mr. Kingman, all you can say is, wow. Rate stats like that in nearly 7,500 plate appearances. That, my friend, is 2TO awesometicity.

Short Careers

Here are some demigods, with fewer than 4,000 plate appearances:

Player               Years     PA    AB     H   HR    BB    SO    BA  HR/H  SO/AB  BB/AB  2TOQ
Russ Branyan     1998-2004   1423  1262   288   81   161   517  .228  .281   .410   .128  .563
Jim Fuller       1973-1977    341   315    61   11    19   130  .194  .180   .413   .060  .533
Melvin Nieves    1992-1998   1364  1228   284   63   136   483  .231  .222   .393   .111  .504
Bo Jackson       1986-1994   2593  2393   598  141   200   841  .250  .236   .351   .084  .504
Billy Ashley     1992-1998    681   618   144   28    63   236  .233  .194   .382   .102  .474
Ron Kittle       1982-1991   2944  2708   648  176   236   744  .239  .272   .275   .087  .459
Dave Nicholson   1960-1967   1638  1419   301   61   219   573  .212  .203   .404   .154  .452
Steve Balboni    1981-1993   3393  3120   714  181   273   856  .229  .254   .274   .088  .440
Bobby Estalella  1996-2004   1056   904   195   48   130   290  .216  .246   .321   .144  .423
Adam Dunn        2001-2004   2076  1728   430  118   348   565  .249  .274   .327   .201  .400
Billy Bryan      1961-1968   1070   968   209   41    91   283  .216  .196   .292   .094  .395
Richie Sexson    1997-2004   3406  3065   832  200   341   806  .271  .240   .263   .111  .392
Ruben Rivera     1995-2003   1771  1586   343   64   185   510  .216  .187   .322   .117  .392
Henry Rodriguez  1992-2002   3307  3031   784  160   276   803  .259  .204   .265   .091  .378
Ryan Thompson    1992-2002   1347  1257   305   52    90   347  .243  .170   .276   .072  .375
Cory Snyder      1986-1994   3882  3656   902  149   226   992  .247  .165   .271   .062  .375
Ron Karkovice    1986-1997   2948  2597   574   96   233   749  .221  .167   .288   .090  .366
Gary Alexander   1975-1981   1430  1276   293   55   154   381  .230  .188   .299   .121  .366
Mark Parent      1986-1998   1428  1303   279   53    98   319  .214  .190   .245   .075  .360
Nate Colbert     1966-1976   3805  3422   833  173   383   902  .243  .208   .264   .112  .359
Tim Laudner      1981-1989   2268  2038   458   77   190   553  .225  .168   .271   .093  .346
Pat Burrell      2000-2004   2875  2503   634  127   372   726  .253  .200   .290   .149  .342
Jim Presley      1984-1991   3818  3546   875  135   210   859  .247  .154   .242   .059  .337
Pat Seerey       1943-1949   2074  1815   406   86   259   485  .224  .212   .267   .143  .336
Ivan Murrell     1963-1974   1350  1306   308   33    44   342  .236  .107   .262   .034  .335

Branyan is the current day version of Rob Deer, pretty much. And, man, if Bo Jackson hadn’t gotten hurt, he woulda been one of the all-time greats.

Do you remember Jim Fuller? I kept hoping somebody would give him a full season shot sometime, but it never happened. He played at the Triple-A level for at least part of every season from 1972 through 1978, hitting an aggregate .231 with 105 homers in 1,646 at-bats, with 224 walks and 599 strikeouts. His Triple-A 2T0Q was .503.

Speaking of minor league 2TOQ performances … Marv Throneberry never put together a major-league season that makes one of these lists (though it wasn’t for lack of trying). But in 1963, after being farmed out by the Mets to Buffalo of the International League, Throneberry put on quite a show: In 261 at-bats, he posted a .176 average with 1 double, no triples, and 16 home runs, 34 walks and 55 strikeouts, for a 2TOQ of .428.

And there’s another guy who left his best 2TO chops in the minors. Glenallen Hill, at Kinston in the Class A Carolina League in 1985, hit .211 with 20 homers in 466 at-bats, with 57 walks and — get this — 211 strikeouts. His 2TOQ was .535.

But I digress …

Single Season Regulars

Here are the top thirty single season 2TOQ studs, with at least 450 plate appearances:

Player           Year   PA   AB    H  HR   BB   SO    BA  HR/H  SO/AB  BB/AB  2TOQ
Dave Kingman     1976  502  474  113  37   28  135  .238  .327   .285   .059  .553
Dave Kingman     1975  536  502  116  36   34  153  .231  .310   .305   .068  .547
Rob Deer         1986  538  466  108  33   72  179  .232  .306   .384   .155  .535
Dave Kingman     1977  467  439   97  26   28  143  .221  .268   .326   .064  .530
Dave Kingman     1982  594  535  109  37   59  156  .204  .339   .292   .110  .521
Ron Kittle       1984  515  466  100  32   49  137  .215  .320   .294   .105  .509
Bo Jackson       1988  464  439  108  25   25  146  .246  .231   .333   .057  .507
Rob Deer         1991  537  448   80  25   89  175  .179  .313   .391   .199  .504
Ruben Rivera     1999  466  411   80  23   55  143  .195  .288   .348   .134  .502
Bo Jackson       1989  554  515  132  32   39  172  .256  .242   .334   .076  .501
Mark McGwire     1997  641  540  148  58  101  159  .274  .392   .294   .187  .499
Sammy Sosa       1999  703  625  180  63   78  171  .288  .350   .274   .125  .499
Sammy Sosa       1996  532  498  136  40   34  134  .273  .294   .269   .068  .495
Jose Canseco     1998  648  583  138  46   65  159  .237  .333   .273   .111  .495
Melvin Nieves    1996  475  431  106  24   44  158  .246  .226   .367   .102  .491
Sammy Sosa       1998  716  643  198  66   73  171  .308  .333   .266   .114  .486
Pete Incaviglia  1988  457  418  104  22   39  153  .249  .212   .366   .093  .484
Rob Deer         1990  504  440   92  27   64  147  .209  .293   .334   .145  .482
Cecil Fielder    1990  663  573  159  51   90  182  .277  .321   .318   .157  .481
Ron Kittle       1983  559  520  132  35   39  150  .254  .265   .288   .075  .479
Cory Snyder      1987  608  577  136  33   31  166  .236  .243   .288   .054  .477
Steve Balboni    1984  483  438  107  28   45  139  .244  .262   .317   .103  .476
Henry Rodriguez  1996  569  532  147  36   37  160  .276  .245   .301   .070  .476
Rob Deer         1989  526  466   98  26   60  158  .210  .265   .339   .129  .476
Dave Kingman     1979  577  532  153  48   45  131  .288  .314   .246   .085  .475
Richie Sexson    2001  658  598  162  45   60  178  .271  .278   .298   .100  .475
Gorman Thomas    1979  655  557  136  45   98  175  .244  .331   .314   .176  .469
Adam Dunn        2003  455  381   82  27   74  126  .215  .329   .331   .194  .466
Tony Armas       1983  603  574  125  36   29  131  .218  .288   .228   .051  .466
Mark McGwire     1999  654  521  145  65  133  141  .278  .448   .271   .255  .464

The Kongster. The Kongulator. Kong-o-rama.

Adam Dunn is showing some promise, but he walks way too much. But he’s still young, so maybe he’ll outgrow it.

Single Season Part-Timers

And the thirty greatest 2TOQ achievements in 200 to 449 plate appearances:

Player          Year      PA   AB    H  HR  BB   SO    BA  HR/H  SO/AB  BB/AB  2TOQ
Dave Kingman    1977-AL   63   60   13   6   3   29  .217  .462   .483   .050  .895
Mark McGwire    2001     355  299   56  29  56  118  .187  .518   .395   .187  .725
Dave Kingman    1973     346  305   62  24  41  122  .203  .387   .400   .134  .653
Mark McGwire    1997-NL  217  174   44  24  43   61  .253  .545   .351   .247  .649
Melvin Nieves   1997     398  359   82  20  39  157  .228  .244   .437   .109  .573
Russ Branyan    2001     353  315   73  20  38  132  .232  .274   .419   .121  .572
Bo Jackson      1987     426  396   93  22  30  158  .235  .237   .399   .076  .560
Willy Mo Pena   2004     358  336   87  26  22  108  .259  .299   .321   .065  .555
Tony Clark      1996     405  376   94  27  29  127  .250  .287   .338   .077  .548
Russ Branyan    2002     429  378   86  24  51  151  .228  .279   .399   .135  .544
Rob Deer        1992     444  393   97  32  51  131  .247  .330   .333   .130  .533
Todd Hundley    2001     276  246   46  12  25   89  .187  .261   .362   .102  .521
Matt Williams   1989     311  292   59  18  14   72  .202  .305   .247   .048  .504
Jesse Barfield  1983     410  388   98  27  22  110  .253  .276   .284   .057  .502
Todd Hundley    1999     428  376   78  24  44  113  .207  .308   .301   .117  .491
Tim Laudner     1987     317  288   55  16  23   80  .191  .291   .278   .080  .489
Dick Stuart     1958     265  254   68  16  11   75  .268  .235   .295   .043  .487
Shane Andrews   2000     222  192   44  14  27   59  .229  .318   .307   .141  .485
Dave Kingman    1974     387  350   78  18  37  125  .223  .231   .357   .106  .482
D. Strawberry   1998     341  295   73  24  46   90  .247  .329   .305   .156  .478
Bob Tillman     1969     209  190   37  12  18   47  .195  .324   .247   .095  .477
Dave Kingman    1977-NL  404  379   84  20  25  114  .222  .238   .301   .066  .473
Craig Paquette  1995     304  283   64  13  12   88  .226  .203   .311   .042  .472
Cory Snyder     1986     432  416  113  24  16  123  .272  .212   .296   .038  .470
Todd Hundley    2002     303  266   56  16  32   80  .211  .286   .301   .120  .466
Steve Balboni   1987     420  386   80  24  34   97  .207  .300   .251   .088  .463
Ron Kittle      1985     410  379   87  26  31   92  .230  .299   .243   .082  .460
Pedro Feliz     2003     249  235   58  16  10   53  .247  .276   .226   .043  .459
Jose Cruz Jr.   1995     436  395   98  26  41  117  .248  .265   .296   .104  .458
Ron Kittle      1986     411  376   82  21  35  110  .218  .256   .293   .093  .456

Okay, I know Kingman’s 1977 AL stint was way too small to be included, but come on. You just have to fall to your knees and admit that you are not worthy.

Mark McGwire had the capacity to overcome a lot of walks in a big way. Like Rob Deer, his Two True Outcomes were so spectacular that they outdid his third.

2TO Isn’t Just for Position Players Anymore

Just for the hell of it … a couple of pitchers who provided extremely entertaining at-bats:

Player          Year      PA   AB    H  HR  BB   SO    BA  HR/H  SO/AB  BB/AB  2TOQ
Earl Wilson     1965      92   79   14   6  13   29  .177  .429   .367   .165  .631
Earl Wilson     1966     104   96   23   7   8   36  .240  .304   .375   .083  .596
Earl Wilson     1968      90   88   20   7   2   35  .227  .350   .398   .023  .725
Don Drysdale    1958      69   66   15   7   3   25  .227  .467   .379   .045  .800
Don Drysdale    1959      95   91   15   4   4   31  .165  .267   .341   .044  .563
Don Drysdale    1961      89   83   16   5   6   24  .193  .313   .289   .072  .529

By the way, if you add these six Wilson and Drysdale seasons together, you get a line that looks like this:

 AB   R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB   SO    BA   OBP   SLG  HR/H  SO/AB  BB/AB  2TOQ
503  69  103   3   5  36   87  36  180  .205  .258  .445  .350   .358   .072  .636

Boggles the mind, don’t it. I think my favorite part is the three doubles and five triples deal.

But I digress again …

2TOQ+, Version I

I know what you’re saying to yourself at this point. You’re saying, self, what about putting these accomplishments into league environment context?

There are two ways to compare a guy’s 2TOQ against the league 2TOQ. One is by presenting the individual’s 2TOQ as a percentage of the league mark, where a performance completely equal to the league average would be expressed as 100 (as OPS+ does). Here are the top thirty 2TOQ+ performances figuring it this way (at least back to 1937, which is as far back as I—gasp!—calculated):

Player        Year   PA   AB    H  HR   BB   SO    BA  HR/H  SO/AB  BB/AB  2TOQ  Lg 2TOQ  2TOQ+
Dick Kokos    1949  567  501  131  23   66   91  .261  .176   .182   .132  .225   .040     564
Jack Graham   1949  561  500  119  24   61   62  .238  .202   .124   .122  .204   .040     510
Gus Zernial   1950  581  543  152  29   38  110  .280  .191   .203   .070  .323   .065     501
V. DiMaggio   1943  650  580  144  15   70  126  .248  .104   .217   .121  .201   .040     498
Ralph Kiner   1946  576  502  124  23   74  109  .247  .185   .217   .147  .255   .054     473
Dave Kingman  1976  502  474  113  37   28  135  .238  .327   .285   .059  .553   .117     473
Pat Seerey    1946  469  404   91  26   65  101  .225  .286   .250   .161  .375   .080     468
Dave Kingman  1975  536  502  116  36   34  153  .231  .310   .305   .068  .547   .119     461
Sam Chapman   1938  461  406  105  17   55   94  .259  .162   .232   .135  .258   .057     455
Joe Gordon    1938  514  458  117  25   56   72  .255  .214   .157   .122  .249   .057     439
Gus Zernial   1955  443  413  105  30   30   90  .254  .286   .218   .073  .431   .103     417
Gus Zernial   1951  634  571  153  33   63  101  .268  .216   .177   .110  .282   .069     411
V. DiMaggio   1938  605  540  123  14   65  134  .228  .114   .248   .120  .242   .063     385
G. Alexander  1978  555  498  112  27   57  166  .225  .241   .333   .114  .460   .122     378
Dave Kingman  1982  594  535  109  37   59  156  .204  .339   .292   .110  .521   .141     368
V. DiMaggio   1942  548  496  118  15   52   87  .238  .127   .175   .105  .198   .055     360
Hank Sauer    1948  590  530  138  35   60   85  .260  .254   .160   .113  .301   .084     357
G. Thomas     1979  655  557  136  45   98  175  .244  .331   .314   .176  .469   .132     355
Dave Kingman  1977  467  439   97  26   28  143  .221  .268   .326   .064  .530   .152     349
V. DiMaggio   1941  596  528  141  21   68  100  .267  .149   .189   .129  .210   .060     348
Mike Schmidt  1975  663  562  140  38  101  180  .249  .271   .320   .180  .412   .119     347
G. Thomas     1978  525  452  111  32   73  133  .246  .288   .294   .162  .421   .122     346
Dave Kingman  1979  577  532  153  48   45  131  .288  .314   .246   .085  .475   .139     341
Gus Zernial   1953  613  556  158  42   57   79  .284  .266   .142   .103  .305   .090     341
Ron Kittle    1983  559  520  132  35   39  150  .254  .265   .288   .075  .479   .142     337
G. Thomas     1980  686  628  150  38   58  170  .239  .253   .271   .092  .432   .128     336
Mark McGwire  1997  641  540  148  58  101  159  .274  .392   .294   .187  .499   .149     335
V. DiMaggio   1937  532  493  126  13   39  111  .256  .103   .225   .079  .249   .075     334
Ron Kittle    1984  515  466  100  32   49  137  .215  .320   .294   .105  .509   .153     333
Bo Jackson    1989  554  515  132  32   39  172  .256  .242   .334   .076  .501   .151     332
Tony Armas    1981  459  440  115  22   19  115  .261  .191   .261   .043  .409   .124     331

Interesting, no? Guys like Kokos and Graham wouldn’t stand out as 2TOQ monsters in today’s environment, but in the very different world of the 1949 American League, they did.

By the way: Vince DiMaggio and Pat Seerey both merit acknowledgment as very early, brave 2TO pioneers.

But I’m not really convinced this is the best way to do 2TOQ+. I think this magnifies the performances of players in strongly non-2TOQ leagues too much. Stat lines like those of Kokos and Graham, while obviously hugely unusual in their day, still don’t really channel the come-out-of-the-dugout-swinging-from-the-heels mojo we’re after here.

2TOQ+, Version II

I think a better way to express 2TOQ+ is as a simple subtraction of league figure from player figure, and just show the difference in magnitude. Here’s what we get when we do it this way:

Player        Year   PA   AB    H  HR   BB   SO    BA  HR/H  SO/AB  BB/AB  2TOQ  Lg 2TOQ  2TOQ+
Dave Kingman  1976  502  474  113  37   28  135  .238  .327   .285   .059  .553   .117    .436
Dave Kingman  1975  536  502  116  36   34  153  .231  .310   .305   .068  .547   .119    .429
Dave Kingman  1982  594  535  109  37   59  156  .204  .339   .292   .110  .521   .141    .379
Dave Kingman  1977  467  439   97  26   28  143  .221  .268   .326   .064  .530   .152    .378
Ron Kittle    1984  515  466  100  32   49  137  .215  .320   .294   .105  .509   .153    .356
Rob Deer      1986  538  466  108  33   72  179  .232  .306   .384   .155  .535   .183    .352
Mark McGwire  1997  641  540  148  58  101  159  .274  .392   .294   .187  .499   .149    .350
Bo Jackson    1989  554  515  132  32   39  172  .256  .242   .334   .076  .501   .151    .350
Bo Jackson    1988  464  439  108  25   25  146  .246  .231   .333   .057  .507   .162    .345
Rob Deer      1991  537  448   80  25   89  175  .179  .313   .391   .199  .504   .164    .341
G. Alexander  1978  555  498  112  27   57  166  .225  .241   .333   .114  .460   .122    .338
G. Thomas     1979  655  557  136  45   98  175  .244  .331   .314   .176  .469   .132    .337
Ron Kittle    1983  559  520  132  35   39  150  .254  .265   .288   .075  .479   .142    .337
Dave Kingman  1979  577  532  153  48   45  131  .288  .314   .246   .085  .475   .139    .336
Gus Zernial   1955  454  413  105  30   30   90  .254  .286   .218   .073  .431   .103    .328
Rob Deer      1990  504  440   92  27   64  147  .209  .293   .334   .145  .482   .156    .326
C. Fielder    1990  663  573  159  51   90  182  .277  .321   .318   .157  .481   .156    .325
Rob Deer      1989  526  466   98  26   60  158  .210  .265   .339   .129  .476   .151    .325
Tony Armas    1983  603  574  125  36   29  131  .218  .288   .228   .051  .466   .142    .324
S. Balboni    1984  483  438  107  28   45  139  .244  .262   .317   .103  .476   .153    .323
P.Incaviglia  1988  457  418  104  22   39  153  .249  .212   .366   .093  .484   .162    .322
Bo Jackson    1990  456  405  110  28   44  128  .272  .255   .316   .109  .462   .156    .306
G. Thomas     1980  686  628  150  38   58  170  .239  .253   .271   .092  .432   .128    .303
Dave Kingman  1972  523  472  106  29   51  140  .225  .274   .297   .108  .462   .159    .303
Jose Canseco  1990  553  481  132  37   72  158  .274  .280   .328   .150  .459   .156    .303
G. Thomas     1978  525  452  111  32   73  133  .246  .288   .294   .162  .421   .122    .299
Pat Seerey    1946  469  404   91  26   65  101  .225  .286   .250   .161  .375   .080    .295
Ruben Rivera  1999  466  411   80  23   55  143  .195  .288   .348   .134  .502   .208    .294
Mike Schmidt  1975  663  562  140  38  101  180  .249  .271   .320   .180  .412   .119    .293
Tony Armas    1984  671  639  171  43   32  156  .268  .251   .244   .050  .446   .153    .293

Now we’re cooking with gas! That’s what I’m talkin’ about! When Kingman takes the top four spots, you know you’ve got it working just right.

Career 2TOQ+

So now let’s calculate the 2TOQ+ for all these guys’ career stats … no, wait. That would be a ton of work, wouldn’t it. Never mind.

In Conclusion

A shout-out to all you youngsters reading this, who have hopes of being a major-league ballplayer someday. What you really want most of all is to see your name on one of these 2TOQ lists, don’t you. Of course you do.

Understand that it won’t just “happen.” You’ll have to work darn hard at it. Just keep these fundamentals in mind:

- A pitch taken is an opportunity missed. Swing early, and swing often.

- When swinging, don’t ever “put the ball in play,” or “go up the middle,” or “hit the ball where it’s pitched.” Nobody ever hit one 500 feet doing that, and besides, that puts you in danger of avoiding the strikeout.

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