Waiver Wire efficiency: Wins

The two most important factors in predicting wins are offensive support and pitcher skill. To figure out which pitchers are most likely to get you some points in wins, let’s look at some decently skilled pitchers with good offenses backing them.

Just remember that wins are very volatile and difficult to predict, so if you stand to gain the same number of points in a category like strikeouts as you would in wins, go with the strikeouts. They are much more predictable.

First, we’ll check out the top offenses in each league and how many runs they’ve scored.

American League

1	NY Yankees	5.97
2	Detroit		5.57
3	Boston		5.13
4	LA Angels  	5.13
5	Seattle		5.03
6	Cleveland  	5.00
7	Texas		4.96

National League

1	Philadelphia	5.42
2	Colorado	5.08
3	Atlanta		5.00
4	NY Mets		4.84
5	Florida		4.80
6	Cincinnati 	4.79
7	Milwaukee   	4.77

Wins

This list contains pitchers from a team on the lists above who are owned in less than 25% of leagues. In addition, each pitcher needs to have a LIPS RA (not ERA) better than his team’s runs per game.

LAST	FIRST	TEAM R/G	LIPS RA	DIFF	G	GS	W	L	IP	ERA	LIPS ERA	WHIP	DIPS WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	xGB%	LOB%	BABIP	HR/FB	LD%
Lohse*	Kyle	5.42**	4.56	0.86	21	21	6	12	131.7	4.58	4.07	1.38	1.28	6.64	2.13	3.12	44.13	71.18	0.321	12.57	18.6
Lohse*	Kyle	5.42**	4.88	0.54	4	4	1	0	20.7	4.79	4.24	1.34	1.31	5.47	2.26	2.42	36.43	72.06	0.307	8.65	21.04
Moyer	Jamie	5.42**	4.63	0.79	25	25	11	9	154	4.97	4.07	1.45	1.32	4.01	1.39	2.88	44.97	73.62	0.328	11.11	24.35
Francis	Jeff	5.08	4.53	0.55	26	26	13	6	162.3	4.38	4.19	1.40	1.31	6.99	2.61	2.68	41.47	74.61	0.329	9.64	18.73
Robertson	Nate	5.57	5.04	0.53	22	22	7	10	126.3	5.13	4.44	1.40	1.35	6.1	4.35	1.4	51.72	70.92	0.288	11.76	19.35
Santana	Ervin	5.13	4.74	0.39	20	20	5	11	116.3	5.96	4.30	1.40	1.36	5.79	2.86	2.02	38.52	70.98	0.305	10.1	19.46
Livingston	Bobby	4.79	4.43	0.36	9	9	3	3	51.7	4.70	4.36	1.69	1.44	6.75	3.94	1.71	32.69	75.4	0.36	7.69	16.98
Bush	Dave	4.77	4.42	0.35	25	23	9	9	143.7	5.01	4.42	1.56	1.42	7.12	3.25	2.19	35	71.43	0.328	13.45	19.74
Washburn	Jarrod	5.03	4.84	0.19	24	24	8	10	149.3	4.16	4.47	1.38	1.32	4.41	1.13	3.89	38.36	74.07	0.321	7.98	21.89
Lawrence	Brian	4.84	4.66	0.18	3	3	1	0	16	5.06	4.35	1.38	1.37	5.09	2.14	2.38	57.83	73.01	0.325	7.55	16.77
Byrd	Paul	5.00	4.82	0.18	23	23	11	5	143	4.41	4.48	1.63	1.50	6.92	4.2	1.65	39.43	72.37	0.342	10.5	21.38
Wakefield	Tim	5.13	4.95	0.18	25	25	15	10	157.3	4.35	4.49	1.39	1.39	5.06	2.89	1.75	37.95	74.59	0.3	6.48	17.52
Carlyle	Buddy	5.00	4.85	0.15	16	15	7	5	85	4.66	4.54	1.33	1.29	5.82	2.33	2.5	32.71	73.35	0.306	10.57	21.71
Weaver	Jeff	5.03	4.95	0.08	19	19	5	10	106.7	5.57	4.55	1.52	1.45	7.26	3.7	1.96	34.6	79.21	0.313	12.99	21.09
Saunders	Joe	5.13	5.08	0.05	11	11	7	1	69.3	3.25	4.61	1.47	1.38	4.98	2.11	2.36	35.54	66.12	0.331	6.86	16.45

* Kyle Lohse is on the list twice. One line includes his starts as a Red and the other as a Phillie. Since I don’t have LIPS numbers combining stints with multiple teams, I simply listed them separately. You should still be able to get a feel for his skill level.
** Please be aware that most of these runs were scored in games played with Chase Utley. Utley will be returning soon, but as we mentioned the other day, may not be himself.

Concluding thoughts

That wraps up this series. I hope this has helped, and hopefully you’ll be able to use it to improve your team as we are nearing the end of the season. If you have any questions—as always —feel free to email me!