Why the Giants will beat the Braves

All caveats apply: Anything can happen in a short series, the playoffs are a crapshoot, yadda yadda yadda. All true and all duly noted. And my personal status as a lifelong Giants fan should be readily acknowledged; it’s entirely possible I’m wishing this more than I’m seeing it.

But right now I’m seeing the NLDS confrontation between San Francisco and Atlanta as one of the less evenly-matched square-offs between a 91-71 team (the Braves) and a 92-70 team (the Giants) we’re likely to encounter. I see the Giants as holding a pretty strong edge.

To be sure, I wouldn’t give the Giants such an edge (or any edge) if the two teams were preparing to grapple in a best-of-162 series that would take place over several months. Because, effectively, that’s what’s just occurred, and these two ball clubs wound up with barely a hair’s breadth between them (for what it’s worth, the Giants’ Pythagorean record was 94-68, and the Braves’ 93-69). But, of course, that isn’t what the two teams are preparing to do; they’re preparing to grapple in a micro-mini best-of-five set, that will take place within a week’s span.

A short series renders nearly irrelevant many of the elements that make for competitive ball clubs over the long haul: namely, roster depth (especially pitching depth) and organizational depth (the ability to call up help as needed from the minors, and/or leverage surpluses into trades). None of that stuff matters much right now. In a short series, especially the best-of-five variety, vastly more importance is vested in front-line talent, and most especially, front-line starting pitching talent.

Moreover, the long season is so often aptly likened to a marathon: It’s a test not of how good you are immediately, but of how good you can be over a period of hours. The short series is, of course, a sprint: What you might have done an hour ago, or might do next hour, won’t help you. It’s a test of what you can do right now, in these brief seconds, and only that.

And both of these factors work in favor of the Giants.

The front line

Most prognosticators, myself certainly included, didn’t think the Braves were going to be as good in 2010 as they have been. Their roster just didn’t grab one as overly impressive. But they put together their fine season despite the absence of any superstar performer, relying instead on outstanding top-to-bottom depth, and receiving masterful efforts from manager Bobby Cox and GM Frank Wren to tirelessly tinker and find just the right parts to fit emerging needs.

That’s great, but the result is a team without a particular core weapon to be feared. Atlanta’s two best hitters, right fielder Jason Heyward and catcher Brian McCann, are both excellent, but neither is the sort of stud slugger who threatens to get red hot and just carry his team for a week or more. (Heyward surely might develop into such a hitter, but at the age of just-turned-21 he’s not there yet).

Atlanta’s top starting pitcher, the veteran Tim Hudson, has enjoyed a wonderful comeback season, nearly regaining his peak Oakland form from nearly a decade ago. And perhaps the Braves’ next-best starter, sophomore Tommy Hanson, is ready to step forward and pitch like an ace, though he hasn’t yet achieved that kind of consistent dominance. But following that the quality of the Braves’ starters drops off pretty dramatically.

As for the Giants, they certainly don’t scare anyone with their offense, either. But their 3-4-5 core of Aubrey Huff, Buster Posey, and Pat Burrell has hit better this year than any trio the Braves can muster. And in terms of front line starting pitching, the Giants loom very large indeed: the worst ERA posted by any of their big three starters (Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez) was logged by the back-to-back defending Cy Young Award winner, who suffered through such a terrible off-year in 2010 that all he did was go 16-10 and lead the league in strikeouts. The Giants present exactly the kind of starting pitching that threatens to shut the opposition down for multiple days, and in a short series that’s lethal.

The timing of the sprint

Perhaps even more important in this match-up is its timing. The way each team has performed recently is likely a better indicator of how’ll they do this week than the way they performed a few months ago. And in this regard the Braves should be worried.

Atlanta limped to the finish, going 14-16 in September/October, and being outscored 125-105 in the process. What’s more, two of their key performers are out of action with injuries: longtime star third baseman Chipper Jones, who put up an OPS+ of 120 in 2010, and dynamic young second baseman Martin Prado, whose OPS+ was 119. Those are two bats that will be very sorely missed. The Braves at this point aren’t as good a team as they were earlier.

The Giants, meanwhile, roared down the stretch with a 19-10 September/October record, allowing just 60 runs in those 29 games. No, that isn’t a typo. The Giants’ roster at this point is almost entirely healthy, with no one on the DL except long-forgotten Mark DeRosa. The Giants at this point are a better team than they’ve been at any previous time this season.

The mound match-up

The Braves’ bullpen is one of its chief strengths, particularly the combination of set-up man Jonny Venters and closer Billy Wagner. But the Giants’ duo of Sergio Romo and Brian Wilson nearly matches them, and overall while the Atlanta ‘pen posted a terrific 3.11 ERA, the San Francisco mark was 2.99. And that difference isn’t a park illusion, as Turner Field plays as a slightly more pitcher-friendly environment than AT&T Park.

Overall the Braves’ staff ERA+ in 2010 was 110, an excellent performance that tied them with the Phillies and Cardinals for third-best in the National League. But the Giants’ ERA+ was 121, far and away the best in either league.

It bears repeating just how stunningly brilliant the Giants’ pitching has been in recent weeks. Allowing 60 runs in 29 games is a 1960s-Dodgers kind of a stat. Since the end of August the San Francisco team ERA has been 1.91. They’ve allowed 175 hits in their past 259 innings, while walking just 70 and striking out 259. In this period the Giants have out-homered their opponents 39-to-18.

It doesn’t look good for Atlanta.

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  1. Jared Roark said...

    Really?  I see you failed to mention Derek Lowe at all in your article that over his past 5 starts there has not been a pitcher more dominant.  The fact that Lincecum, although he is a great pitcher, did not deserve consecutive Cy Young awards.  There was at least 2 that should have received the award above him last year in Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter.  However, the Giants are a good team, as is the Braves, and I really dont see three top of the line starters on the Giants that tops the Braves starting three in this series.  Derek Lowe for game 1 which I have already spoke about earlier, Tommy Hanson for game 2 which has really been a tough luck pitcher this year for the Braves, and Tim Hudson who has pitched tremendously for the Braves this year especially in August.  Now I dont keep up with the Giants all that much, but I dont think this will be a quick series and honestly I see the Braves emerging victorious in this series.

  2. Scott said...

    Tim Lincecum didn’t deserve consecutive Cy young awards just because you say so? He had the highest WAR of any NL pitcher in both 08 and 09 by far. I assume since you mentioned wainwright and carpenter you were refering to 09 as being the questionable year. Make an arguement, not an assertion, because frankly, the only thing Wainwright and Carpenter really had over lincecum last year was a lower walk rate and more wins. Never mind Lincecum had a lower whip and a strikeout rate that completely blows both of them out of the water.

    Lowe was great, but not exactly the most dominant pitcher in his last 5 starts. He was VERY good with a stellar 1.19 era, nearly a K per 9, 3 quality starts (though 2 of which only went to 6 innings). Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner had more quality starts, similar eras, similar walk rates and strikeout rates as good if not better. Jonathan Sanchez had one less quality start but put up a similar era, walk rate, and a higher strikeout rate. And that’s just looking at the giant’s pitchers compared to Lowe.

    All of the pitchers the Braves will be facing put up similar if not arguably better numbers over the last 5 games than Lowe.

  3. Steve Treder said...

    It remains the case, however, that coughing up a seemingly comfortable late-inning lead and allowing a game that should have been in the bag to slither away isn’t likely a strategy that will serve the Giants well.

  4. Trevor Kirch said...

    I agree with most of your points. The Braves lineup has been decimated by injuries, losing two of their best hitters. Their defense is also pretty terrible, I must say. Their outfield is a mess. I think their bullpen is much more of an advantage than you let on, though.

    Despite the Giants shiny ERA, they have a somewhat less respectable FIP and xFIP of 3.41 and 4.02, respectively. The Braves, on the other hand come in at 3.18 and 3.40. That’s a fairly sizable difference, especially in xFIP. Their starting pitching is pretty identical. As last night’s game shows, if the Braves can keep it close, they have a real chance to win in the late innings, with their dominating bullpen.

  5. Brandon Isleib said...

    I am trying very hard to imagine a scenario where that it is a good strategy…I think the late ‘90s Mariners tried it for awhile.

  6. Jeffrey Gross said...

    Tim Lincecum’s numbers are just as good as Wainwrights this year, they were the best in the NL last year. I would not be upset at all if he three-peated (which sadly wont happen)

  7. Jared Roark said...

    Well it looks as if you called it, but I would venture to say that it didnt go as you really expected.  An excellent series with 4 games all decided by just 1 run.  In this series, it wasnt as much as the Giants beating the Braves, it was the Braves beating the Braves.  Unfortunately for the Giants, they are fixing to face a team that will not make errors and I see the Giants eliminated from the NLCS in 5 games tops, and possibly swept.  It was a great series, and ONE of the best LDS and MOST even of all of the LDS games.  It shows how important defense is especially at this point in the season.  Hopefully the Braves can find them a power hitter and another decent infielder that wont make 2 (Alex Gonzalez) or 3 (Brooks Conrad) errors in a single ga

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