Monday, August 10, 2009
ChiSox, Jays both benefit from Rios waiver claimPosted by Evan Brunell
Today, we found out that the White Sox were indeed the claiming team on Alex Rios. The White Sox received the 28-year old off waivers -- not even giving up anyone.
The waiver claim of Alex Rios generated quite a bit of furor in the blogosphere, much to the bewilderment of Dan Novick.
In the article, Novick passes judgment on the claim, saying that the Jays should be looking to build around Rios for the duration of the deal, not trying to dump him:
He's been worth just one win above replacement so far, which prorates to about 1.5 wins over a full season, compared to 5.5 wins in 2008, 4.6 in 2007, and 3.3 wins in 2006. The most notable difference this year for most baseball fans has been his offense. He's been slightly below average this year, with -1.7 batting runs (park corrected version). The last three years he's been between 12 and 25 runs above average.
Rios, who is right in the middle of his prime, is projected to be worth 31.5 runs above replacement. A three-win player like Rios on the free agent market would command somewhere between $12-$15 million per year in the short-term. Did I mention that Rios is making an average of $11.7 million over the next 5 years, and the Blue Jays hold a 2015 option for $13.5 million? In other words, Alex Rios is a bargain.
I'm going to go ahead and disagree here. I don't think Rios is anywhere near a bargain, and I think Rios wouldn't even sniff $12-$15 million in free agency, never mind net an average $11.7 million that he is making under his current contract. It's not to say that he's not valuable or he can't be worth that money for the remainder of his deal, but he hasn't been worth it to date.
Barring a late surge, this season will mark the fourth straight decrease in OPS for Rios. He checked in at a career-high .865 in 2006 and it is down to .744 this year. What Rios seems to have lost the ability to do is recognize pitches, as his walk percentage was at 7.2 percent in 2006 and 7.9 percent in 2007. He backslid to 6.5 percent last year, and is at 6.6 percent this year. With that backsliding in 2008, he's found the going a bit tough this year as he hasn't been able to sustain his .291 batting average from 2008, dipping to .264.
With a career worst 18.4 line drive percentage, he is doing nothing but going backwards. The Blue Jays, looking financially hamstrung by Alex Rios and Vernon Wells, simply needed to move salary, and with a hitter trending backwards, Rios was the clear move. The Jays benefit by getting out of the contract that was not befitting a player of Rios' stature. They let him go via waivers -- they didn't even care if they got anything in return. That shows you how motivated they were to move salary.
But that's not to say Rios is worthless. Nay, he actually lands in Chicago with a ton of promise on his hands. He is a gifted defender, and the White Sox could opt to make him their long-term centerfielder, as he shouldn't have too much difficulty in transitioning to center. This would only add to his value.
Secondly, his .318 xBABIP suggests that he's been vastly unlucky on the year, and he's heading to a park that is conducive to offense. In centerfield (if the White Sox do indeed move him, which is unclear), his current offense suddenly becomes acceptable. If he starts hitting balls out of the park thanks to regression to the mean and being at the Cell, he suddenly becomes an All-Star centerfielder. All ifs, of course -- but ifs the White Sox certainly felt justified to take a flyer on Rios.
Financially, the claim made sense for Chicago. The White Sox were pacing to shed more than half their payroll before the Jake Peavy trade. That doesn't hold anymore with Peavy and now Alex Rios in the fold, but it just goes to show how much money the White Sox were able to spend.
If Rios keeps on giving the White Sox what he had given the Jays in recent years, both teams benefit. The White Sox get a speedster capable of playing center field and with an offensive history of at least some pop. The Jays needed to cut salary, and Rios was one of their fattest contracts -- handed out to a player that simply wasn't living up to expectations, and hadn't for two years.
If Rios returns to his 2006-7 ways, it still isn't a mistake in Toronto. The team is in flux and getting older. The Jays look headed for a complete rebuilding project, and there is a reason why the Jays let Rios go without getting anything. Keeping Rios would have harmed them, and they were in a tough position with the claim: they could have pulled him back and looked to trade him in the offseason, but the White Sox knew they were one of the few (if not the only) team that could take on Rios' salary now and in the future.
It may seem odd that the deal is being considered a win/win here, and even still a win/win should Rios return to his previous ways.
It just goes to show you the special situation each team found themselves in.
Evan Brunell is currently editor of Fire Brand of the American League, a Red Sox blog he began in 2003. He also scores games at Fenway Park for MLB. He was the co-founder and president of MVN, an independent sports media web site.