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Tuesday, September 29, 2009Admiring Adam LindPosted by Paul Singman at 1:18am Looking backAs of yesterday, Adam Lind's 2009 season numbers look like this: .302 average, 90 runs, 32 home runs, 109 RBI, and one lonely stolen base. Lind has reached some remarkable totals this season, all the more impressive as this was his first full season in the majors. Any player would say he's had a great season if he reaches the following plateaus: 30 home runs, 100 RBI and a .300-plus batting average. Right now only six players in the major leagues meet all three criteria and they are:
That is an intimidating grouping of players, all big-name hitters except for Lind and Morales. Cabrera, Pujols, Braun, and Lee combine to have 16 All-Star appearances, two MVP awards, and two ROY trophies amongst them. At this stage in Lind's career he has none of those things, but that may change in the future. Generally I'm a pretty humble guy but after re-reading my predictions of Lind at the beginning of the season, I am compelled to share their preciseness in hindsight. Here was my estimation of his power ability: ...we can expect Lind to hit outfield flyballs (OF FB%) at about a 30 percent rate, and have about 18 percent of those flyballs go for home runs. Over a season's worth of at-bats, hitting at those ratios Lind would knock about 30 home runs. Spot on with the home runs, he is currently at 32 dingers. And here's what I said about his batting average potential: Overall Lind does not have the best plate discipline but with his tendencies to hit lots of grounders and line drives, and fly balls that go over the fence, Lind is able to keep his BABIP relatively high, inflating his batting average. An average in the high .280s seems reasonable given his skill set, although he has the potential to push a .300 average. I said Lind could push a .300 average and impressively he has done exactly that, currently sitting at .302. OK, enough bragging on my part. Either you owned Lind this season and enjoyed his production or you did not. That cannot be changed, so what matters is what will happen in the future. Looking forwardIt is hard to say this early where Lind will fall in 2010 drafts, but my prediction is he will be selected in rounds 5-7 in most standard, 12-team league drafts—in between where Curtis Granderson and Bobby Abreu were taken last year for some perspective. Looking at Eriq Gardner's ridiculously premature mock 2010 draft back in August, we see Lind was taken with the 69th overall pick, which in a 12-team league would equate to an early sixth-round selection so that agrees with my initial feeling. Whether Lind will justify that selection remains to be seen, though entering his age 26-27 season in 2010 there is little reason for pessimism. Simply put, Lind offers a power, batting average, and RBI combination that is boasted only by the elite hitters in baseball. Although it is too early to tell, I would not be surprised if Adam Lind found his way onto my fantasy teams next year, again. Paul has been managing fantasy baseball teams for many seasons and writing for THT Fantasy over the past year (and counting). In his first year competing in expert's leagues, he is both surprised and happy to say he finished in the top 30% of his three leagues. He welcomes readers' thoughts at his email here or in the comments below.
Paul Singman said...
Lind certainly is not a free swinger, swinging at 44% percent of his pitches seen this year which is a little less than average. He’s double his walk rate this year to league-average 9.0% so overall you could classify him as having about average plate discipline. His high .327 BABIP (not necessarily lucky)and high Hr/Fb rate are what allow him to hit .300. Speaking of Hr/Fb percentages, Lind’s has shot up 1.5% tonight to 21.5% with his three home runs! Posted 09/29 at 09:44 PM
Mike Silver said...
Great timing on Lind. Three homers last night. He beat the Sox singlehandedly. Posted 09/30 at 06:07 PM
Paul Singman said...
Thanks Mike, I love when players make me look good Posted 09/30 at 06:25 PM
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Unfortunately Lind had to get hit by a pitch in the elbow in his final at bat last night so he is not available to power my fantasy team tonight… I hate Jonathan Papelbon for it.
I think Linds plate discipline will continue to improve, as it is, he averages 4.04 pitches per at bat, so he’s not necessarily a free swinger. I think that once pitchers start to respect Linds abilities his BB rate will go up.