Tuesday, August 18, 2009
What fantasy baseball may look like in 2010
Posted by Eriq Gardner at 2:38amTwo weeks ago, I got the idea to hold a mock auction for the 2010 fantasy baseball season.
Although it may seem early to begin contemplating next season when we have about six weeks left in the current one, many people who play fantasy baseball have already started to think about next year. In many keeper leagues, the trade deadline has just passed or will be coming soon, and many teams are trying to position themselves for success in 2010.
Sometimes, it's hard to sort through values when so many things can happen between now and next April, but I figured the best way to get started was to take the "wisdom of crowds" by recruiting a bunch of smart fantasy baseball enthusiasts and conducting a mock draft on my blog. To add to this crowd-sourcing project, I told all of the participants they would be competing for a prize. The masses—that means you—will be voting on the team that did the best job in drafting.
So what players' stock has risen this year? What players' stock has fallen? Where will breakouts like Mark Reynolds, Ben Zobrist, Aaron Hill, Justin Upton, Zach Greinke, Wandy Rodriguez and Ubaldo Jimenez be picked next season?
Our first mock draft of 2010 may hold some clues.
We conducted two rounds daily. Each day, I asked the participants to give me a list of the 20 best players remaining, sorted by draft priority. As a result, I was able to not only administer this draft, but also to get inside the participants' heads and measure variation in their valuations.
For example, on day one, all participants would have drafted Pujols, Hanley, Braun, and Utley in the first round. These guys are solid bets to be there next year. Will Mark Reynolds also be in the cream of the crop? Right now, it's too early to tell. A couple of drafters had him high. But many others didn't have him listed as a top 20 player.
From the looks of the draft and into the minds of the participants involved, players whose stock has risen for 2010 and who could escalate higher in the coming months include: Carl Crawford, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Joe Mauer, Ryan Zimmerman, Kendry Morales, Pablo Sandoval, Jayson Werth, Jon Lester, and Javier Vazquez.
In turn, here are some players on the wane whose stock could fall much further than what you see below: David Wright, Jose Reyes, Manny Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, and Francisco Rodriguez.
It's also clear by this draft that second base is experiencing a bit of a renaissance. By round five of this draft, most of the teams had already lined up their second baseman. In contrast, talent at shortstop seems meager, especially with Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins falling to second/third round territory.
What are your thoughts? Who was over-drafted and who deserves the newfound respect? Also, please vote in the poll of who had the best draft. I've sorted the draft by rosters. Plus, a prize is on the line.
Round 1
1. The Sports Banter – Albert Pujols
2. Hamboners – Hanley Ramirez
3. The Devil Wears Prado – Ryan Braun
4. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – Chase Utley
5. Evil Empire – Mark Reynolds
6. Unruhlies – Alex Rodriguez
7. .Beyond the Box Score – Tim Lincecum
8. He Thrills B. Mills – Carl Crawford
9. The Fat and the Furious – David Wright
10. The Juicy Danglers — Matt Holliday
Round 2
11. The Juicy Danglers — Justin Upton
12. The Fat and the Furious — Prince Fielder
13. He Thrills B. Mills — Miguel Cabrera
14. Beyond the Box Score —Matt Kemp
15. Unruhlies — Ian Kinsler
16. Evil Empire — Evan Longoria
17. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Mark Teixeira
18. The Devil Wears Prado — Jose Reyes
19. Hamboners — Grady Sizemore
20. The Sports Banter — Justin Morneau
Round 3
21. The Sports Banter – Ichiro Suzuki
22. Hamboners – Ryan Howard
23. The Devil Wears Prado – Joe Mauer
24. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – Derek Jeter
25. Evil Empire – Brandon Phillips
26. Unruhlies – Johan Santana
27. Beyond the Box Score – Dan Haren
28. He Thrills B. Mills – Manny Ramirez
29. The Fat and the Furious – Brian Roberts
30. The Juicy Danglers — Jimmy Rollins
Round 4
31. The Juicy Danglers — Ryan Zimmerman
32. The Fat and the Furious — Jason Bay
33. He Thrills B. Mills — Carlos Beltran
34. Beyond the Box Score — Zach Greinke
35. Unruhlies — Roy Halladay
36. Evil Empire — Troy Tulowitzki
37. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Bobby Abreu
38. The Devil Wears Prado — Kevin Youkilis
39. Hamboners — Adrian Gonzalez
40. The Sports Banter — Dustin Pedroia
Round 5
41. The Sports Banter – Josh Hamilton
42. Hamboners – Javier Vazquez
43. The Devil Wears Prado – B.J. Upton
44. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – CC Sabathia
45. Evil Empire – Curtis Granderson
46. Unruhlies – Brian McCann
47. Beyond the Box Score – Ben Zobrist
48. He Thrills B. Mills – Aaron Hill
49. The Fat and the Furious – Lance Berkman
50. The Juicy Danglers — Robinson Cano
Round 6
51. The Juicy Danglers — Joey Votto
52. The Fat and the Furious — Felix Hernandez
53. He Thrills B. Mills — Carlos Lee
54. Beyond the Box Score — Jacoby Ellsbury
55. Unruhlies — Nick Markakis
56. Evil Empire — Victor Martinez
57. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Justin Verlander
58. The Devil Wears Prado — Aramis Ramirez
59. Hamboners — Adam Dunn
60. The Sports Banter — Alfonso Soriano
Round 7
61. The Sports Banter – Alexei Ramirez
62. Hamboners – Cliff Lee
63. The Devil Wears Prado – Josh Beckett
64. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – Nelson Cruz
65. Evil Empire – Adam Jones
66. Unruhlies – Jonathan Papelbon
67. Beyond the Box Score – Nate McLouth
68. He Thrills B. Mills – Yovani Gallardo
69. The Fat and the Furious – Adam Lind
70. The Juicy Danglers — Jayson Werth
Round 8
71. The Juicy Danglers — Matt Cain
72. The Fat and the Furious — Raul Ibanez
73. He Thrills B. Mills — Michael Young
74. Beyond the Box Score — Andrew McCutchen
75. Unruhlies — Kendry Morales
76. Evil Empire — Hunter Pence
77. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Shane Victorino
78. The Devil Wears Prado — Josh Johnson
79. Hamboners — Andre Ethier
80. The Sports Banter — Jon Lester
Round 9
81. The Sports Banter – Adam Wainwright
82. Hamboners – Pablo Sandoval
83. The Devil Wears Prado – Torii Hunter
84. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – Johnny Damon
85. Evil Empire – Mariano Rivera
86. Unruhlies – Alex Rios
87. Beyond the Box Score – Joe Nathan
88. He Thrills B. Mills – Jake Peavy
89. The Fat and the Furious – Chris Carpenter
90. The Juicy Danglers — Shin Soo Choo
Round 10
91. The Juicy Danglers — AJ Burnett
92. The Fat and the Furious — Clayton Kershaw
93. He Thrills B. Mills — Geovany Soto
94. Beyond the Box Score — Ryan Doumit
95. Unruhlies — Cole Hamels
96. Evil Empire — Derrek Lee
97. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Chad Billingsley
98. The Devil Wears Prado — Carlos Quentin
99. Hamboners — Howie Kendrick
100. The Sports Banter — Tommy Hanson
Round 11
101. The Sports Banter – Matt Wieters
102. Hamboners – Russell Martin
103. The Devil Wears Prado – Asdrubal Cabrera
104. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – James Shields
105. Evil Empire – Joba Chamberlain
106. Unruhlies – Vladimir Guerrero
107. Beyond the Box Score – Chipper Jones
108. He Thrills B. Mills – Gordon Beckham
109. The Fat and the Furious – Jason Bartlett
110. The Juicy Danglers — Jered Weaver
Round 12
111. The Juicy Danglers — Wandy Rodriguez
112. The Fat and the Furious — John Lackey
113. He Thrills B. Mills — Jonathan Broxton
114. Beyond the Box Score — Ricky Nolasco
115. Unruhlies — Stephen Drew
116. Evil Empire — Roy Oswalt
117. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Chone Figgins
118. The Devil Wears Prado — Max Scherzer
119. Hamboners — Jarrod Washburn
120. The Sports Banter — Matt Garza
Round 13
121. The Sports Banter – Mark DeRosa
122. Hamboners – Brandon Webb
123. The Devil Wears Prado – Ubaldo Jimenez
124. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – Mike Napoli
125. Evil Empire – Rich Harden
126. Unruhlies – John Danks
127. Beyond the Box Score – Carlos Pena
128. He Thrills B. Mills – Scott Baker
129. The Fat and the Furious – Francisco Rodriguez
130. The Juicy Danglers — Miguel Montero
Round 14
131. The Juicy Danglers — Jose Valverde
132. The Fat and the Furious — Jorge Posada
133. He Thrills B. Mills — Jair Jurrjens
134. Beyond the Box Score — Jhonny Peralta
135. Unruhlies — Dexter Fowler
136. Evil Empire — David Price
137. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Heath Bell
138. The Devil Wears Prado — Joakim Soria
139. Hamboners — Andrew Bailey
140. The Sports Banter — Brian Fuentes
Eriq Gardner is a New York-based writer and founder of Fantasy Ball Junkie, a website for advanced fantasy baseball enthusiasts.
I can’t believe that nobody picked Kurt Suzuki for catcher.