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Tuesday, August 18, 2009What fantasy baseball may look like in 2010Posted by Eriq Gardner at 2:38amTwo weeks ago, I got the idea to hold a mock auction for the 2010 fantasy baseball season. Although it may seem early to begin contemplating next season when we have about six weeks left in the current one, many people who play fantasy baseball have already started to think about next year. In many keeper leagues, the trade deadline has just passed or will be coming soon, and many teams are trying to position themselves for success in 2010. Sometimes, it's hard to sort through values when so many things can happen between now and next April, but I figured the best way to get started was to take the "wisdom of crowds" by recruiting a bunch of smart fantasy baseball enthusiasts and conducting a mock draft on my blog. To add to this crowd-sourcing project, I told all of the participants they would be competing for a prize. The masses—that means you—will be voting on the team that did the best job in drafting. So what players' stock has risen this year? What players' stock has fallen? Where will breakouts like Mark Reynolds, Ben Zobrist, Aaron Hill, Justin Upton, Zach Greinke, Wandy Rodriguez and Ubaldo Jimenez be picked next season? Our first mock draft of 2010 may hold some clues. We conducted two rounds daily. Each day, I asked the participants to give me a list of the 20 best players remaining, sorted by draft priority. As a result, I was able to not only administer this draft, but also to get inside the participants' heads and measure variation in their valuations. For example, on day one, all participants would have drafted Pujols, Hanley, Braun, and Utley in the first round. These guys are solid bets to be there next year. Will Mark Reynolds also be in the cream of the crop? Right now, it's too early to tell. A couple of drafters had him high. But many others didn't have him listed as a top 20 player. From the looks of the draft and into the minds of the participants involved, players whose stock has risen for 2010 and who could escalate higher in the coming months include: Carl Crawford, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Joe Mauer, Ryan Zimmerman, Kendry Morales, Pablo Sandoval, Jayson Werth, Jon Lester, and Javier Vazquez. In turn, here are some players on the wane whose stock could fall much further than what you see below: David Wright, Jose Reyes, Manny Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, and Francisco Rodriguez. It's also clear by this draft that second base is experiencing a bit of a renaissance. By round five of this draft, most of the teams had already lined up their second baseman. In contrast, talent at shortstop seems meager, especially with Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins falling to second/third round territory. What are your thoughts? Who was over-drafted and who deserves the newfound respect? Also, please vote in the poll of who had the best draft. I've sorted the draft by rosters. Plus, a prize is on the line. Round 1 1. The Sports Banter – Albert Pujols 2. Hamboners – Hanley Ramirez 3. The Devil Wears Prado – Ryan Braun 4. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – Chase Utley 5. Evil Empire – Mark Reynolds 6. Unruhlies – Alex Rodriguez 7. .Beyond the Box Score – Tim Lincecum 8. He Thrills B. Mills – Carl Crawford 9. The Fat and the Furious – David Wright 10. The Juicy Danglers — Matt Holliday Round 2 11. The Juicy Danglers — Justin Upton 12. The Fat and the Furious — Prince Fielder 13. He Thrills B. Mills — Miguel Cabrera 14. Beyond the Box Score —Matt Kemp 15. Unruhlies — Ian Kinsler 16. Evil Empire — Evan Longoria 17. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Mark Teixeira 18. The Devil Wears Prado — Jose Reyes 19. Hamboners — Grady Sizemore 20. The Sports Banter — Justin Morneau Round 3 21. The Sports Banter – Ichiro Suzuki 22. Hamboners – Ryan Howard 23. The Devil Wears Prado – Joe Mauer 24. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – Derek Jeter 25. Evil Empire – Brandon Phillips 26. Unruhlies – Johan Santana 27. Beyond the Box Score – Dan Haren 28. He Thrills B. Mills – Manny Ramirez 29. The Fat and the Furious – Brian Roberts 30. The Juicy Danglers — Jimmy Rollins Round 4 31. The Juicy Danglers — Ryan Zimmerman 32. The Fat and the Furious — Jason Bay 33. He Thrills B. Mills — Carlos Beltran 34. Beyond the Box Score — Zach Greinke 35. Unruhlies — Roy Halladay 36. Evil Empire — Troy Tulowitzki 37. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Bobby Abreu 38. The Devil Wears Prado — Kevin Youkilis 39. Hamboners — Adrian Gonzalez 40. The Sports Banter — Dustin Pedroia Round 5 41. The Sports Banter – Josh Hamilton 42. Hamboners – Javier Vazquez 43. The Devil Wears Prado – B.J. Upton 44. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – CC Sabathia 45. Evil Empire – Curtis Granderson 46. Unruhlies – Brian McCann 47. Beyond the Box Score – Ben Zobrist 48. He Thrills B. Mills – Aaron Hill 49. The Fat and the Furious – Lance Berkman 50. The Juicy Danglers — Robinson Cano Round 6 51. The Juicy Danglers — Joey Votto 52. The Fat and the Furious — Felix Hernandez 53. He Thrills B. Mills — Carlos Lee 54. Beyond the Box Score — Jacoby Ellsbury 55. Unruhlies — Nick Markakis 56. Evil Empire — Victor Martinez 57. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Justin Verlander 58. The Devil Wears Prado — Aramis Ramirez 59. Hamboners — Adam Dunn 60. The Sports Banter — Alfonso Soriano Round 7 61. The Sports Banter – Alexei Ramirez 62. Hamboners – Cliff Lee 63. The Devil Wears Prado – Josh Beckett 64. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – Nelson Cruz 65. Evil Empire – Adam Jones 66. Unruhlies – Jonathan Papelbon 67. Beyond the Box Score – Nate McLouth 68. He Thrills B. Mills – Yovani Gallardo 69. The Fat and the Furious – Adam Lind 70. The Juicy Danglers — Jayson Werth Round 8 71. The Juicy Danglers — Matt Cain 72. The Fat and the Furious — Raul Ibanez 73. He Thrills B. Mills — Michael Young 74. Beyond the Box Score — Andrew McCutchen 75. Unruhlies — Kendry Morales 76. Evil Empire — Hunter Pence 77. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Shane Victorino 78. The Devil Wears Prado — Josh Johnson 79. Hamboners — Andre Ethier 80. The Sports Banter — Jon Lester Round 9 81. The Sports Banter – Adam Wainwright 82. Hamboners – Pablo Sandoval 83. The Devil Wears Prado – Torii Hunter 84. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – Johnny Damon 85. Evil Empire – Mariano Rivera 86. Unruhlies – Alex Rios 87. Beyond the Box Score – Joe Nathan 88. He Thrills B. Mills – Jake Peavy 89. The Fat and the Furious – Chris Carpenter 90. The Juicy Danglers — Shin Soo Choo Round 10 91. The Juicy Danglers — AJ Burnett 92. The Fat and the Furious — Clayton Kershaw 93. He Thrills B. Mills — Geovany Soto 94. Beyond the Box Score — Ryan Doumit 95. Unruhlies — Cole Hamels 96. Evil Empire — Derrek Lee 97. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Chad Billingsley 98. The Devil Wears Prado — Carlos Quentin 99. Hamboners — Howie Kendrick 100. The Sports Banter — Tommy Hanson Round 11 101. The Sports Banter – Matt Wieters 102. Hamboners – Russell Martin 103. The Devil Wears Prado – Asdrubal Cabrera 104. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – James Shields 105. Evil Empire – Joba Chamberlain 106. Unruhlies – Vladimir Guerrero 107. Beyond the Box Score – Chipper Jones 108. He Thrills B. Mills – Gordon Beckham 109. The Fat and the Furious – Jason Bartlett 110. The Juicy Danglers — Jered Weaver Round 12 111. The Juicy Danglers — Wandy Rodriguez 112. The Fat and the Furious — John Lackey 113. He Thrills B. Mills — Jonathan Broxton 114. Beyond the Box Score — Ricky Nolasco 115. Unruhlies — Stephen Drew 116. Evil Empire — Roy Oswalt 117. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Chone Figgins 118. The Devil Wears Prado — Max Scherzer 119. Hamboners — Jarrod Washburn 120. The Sports Banter — Matt Garza Round 13 121. The Sports Banter – Mark DeRosa 122. Hamboners – Brandon Webb 123. The Devil Wears Prado – Ubaldo Jimenez 124. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – Mike Napoli 125. Evil Empire – Rich Harden 126. Unruhlies – John Danks 127. Beyond the Box Score – Carlos Pena 128. He Thrills B. Mills – Scott Baker 129. The Fat and the Furious – Francisco Rodriguez 130. The Juicy Danglers — Miguel Montero Round 14 131. The Juicy Danglers — Jose Valverde 132. The Fat and the Furious — Jorge Posada 133. He Thrills B. Mills — Jair Jurrjens 134. Beyond the Box Score — Jhonny Peralta 135. Unruhlies — Dexter Fowler 136. Evil Empire — David Price 137. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Heath Bell 138. The Devil Wears Prado — Joakim Soria 139. Hamboners — Andrew Bailey 140. The Sports Banter — Brian Fuentes Eriq Gardner is a New York-based writer and founder of Fantasy Ball Junkie, a website for advanced fantasy baseball enthusiasts.
Andrew said...
Went too high: Reynolds, J Upton, Roberts, Soriano, McCutchen, Kendrick, As Cabrera, Washburn Went too low: Teixeira, Halladay, Berkman, Ellsbury, Peavy I like Dan’s Dukie Blasters best. Teixeira’s ADP will be 10 at most next year. Getting him at 17 is laughable. Posted 08/18 at 10:33 AM
Brian M said...
I don’t know about laughable, Andrew. I see 2 guys I would have taken Tex over (Mark Reynolds, Matt Kemp based on OF depth). David Wright and his horrible year, and Ian Kinsler could be argued to be below Tex, but you gotta think positional depth. I really think Upton will put up 1st Round numbers next season. Who do you think is too high above Tex besides Reynolds and Upton? PS - I like “He Thrills B. Mills” best Posted 08/18 at 11:05 AM
Andrew said...
It’s all about reliability in the early rounds. Teixeira is as reliable as they come. This is not to mention the fact that he’s in a wonderful situation hitting in a very productive lineup in a hitter-friendly park. I would take Teixeira before all of these players who were drafted before him: Reynolds, Wright, Holliday, J Upton, Fielder, Miggy, Kemp, Kinsler, and Longoria. Crawford and A-Rod are close calls for me too. Posted 08/18 at 11:12 AM
goldsac said...
How the hell am i supposed to know who was most successful without knowing what stat categories are involved? Posted 08/18 at 11:36 AM
eriq Gardner said...
standard 5x5 Posted 08/18 at 12:22 PM
digglahhh said...
Who do you think is too high above Tex besides Reynolds and Upton? I think it can be argued that everybody except Pujols, Ramirez, Utley and A-Rod, and probably Wright, should go after Tex. Of course, there those who went after Tex who one could argue could go before him as well. Assuming health reports are good, there’s no way I don’t take Reyes or Sizemore ahead of Tex. Dan’s taking Derek Jeter in the top 25, and Bobby Abreu in the top 40? (Abreu could definitely produce that value, but adjusting for perceived is an important skill too). If Hamboners has a core of Hanley Ramirez, Grady Sizemore, and Ryan Howard after three rounds, there’s probably a bit too much blue sky thinking going on in this draft, in my opinion. Overwhelmingly, you will not win your league because you draft Tex instead of Miguel Cabrera (barring injury of course). But, you might lose your league by drafting somebody with Joe Charboneau possibility. Inside the top 50, floor is more important than ceiling, IMO. Posted 08/18 at 04:14 PM
Andrew said...
“Inside the top 50, floor is more important than ceiling, IMO. Exactly. I’d even argue this is a fact, not an opinion. Posted 08/18 at 04:27 PM
Hizouse said...
Don’t tease me with “auction” Posted 08/18 at 05:44 PM
Brian M said...
I don’t disagree with you one bit on the idea that high risk players should be taken later. I think Tex was a fantastic value where he was. But I don’t think it’s “Laughable”...though I really feel that Derek Jeter and Bobby Abreu so high could be argued as A Bit Optimistic. To be clear…I really didn’t want Carl Crawford in the first round…and I think it’s pretty hilarious I got Manny Ramirez AFTER Derek Jeter was drafted! All in all it was fun…but I’m a little disappointed in the voting going on. Perhaps my pitching is seen as being very weak. Guys like Kinsler, Holliday and Upton contribute in more categories than Tex. Same with Reynolds (though I think he was very premature as well). I’m not saying they’re definitely better, but I don’t think it’s totally unreasonable to draft them ahead of him, considering there are more than plenty first basemen that will hit between .275 and .300 with 35 HR. That’s all I was saying there…and I really like the aging curve that Justin Upton is seeing. If you think Tex is WAY better than that, you’ll probably get him in your draft next season. That’s a good thing for you. Of course it’s not going to be exactly the way things shape up next preseason. I have him in my most important league right now and he’s been great. However, I would argue that he’s #5 best 1B in the league with Pujols-Fielder-Cabrera-Morneau (slightly) ahead of him. But with the exception of Pujols, these guys are all expected to produce very similarly (Fielder with more HR upside, Cabrera with significantly more BA upside). That’s a good thing for you. Of course it’s not going to be exactly the way things shape up next preseason. Don’t forget there’s not a whole lot of dropoff from Tex to guys like Ryan Howard (with more power potential) and Adrian Gonzalez. The truth of the matter is Tex hasn’t hit 40 HR since 2005 and looks like a Morneau clone with a bit more power. Both fantastic players and I love him playing in that new Yankee Stadium, but not 100% for sure first rounders in a 10 team league. As for the apparent love for Hamboners…Sizemore and Howard can seriously hurt your batting average (and keep in mind no one knows what’s going to happen with Sizemore’s injury). It’s only a 10-team league, we have to remember, with no bench spots. Every team is going to look damn good after 4 rounds. Posted 08/18 at 06:12 PM
TCQ said...
Seeing as my keepers(in a 14 team mixed league) are Hanley Ramirez, Tim Lincecum, Ian Kinsler, and Justin Upton, this article just made me feel very warm and fuzzy inside. Posted 08/18 at 06:45 PM
frank said...
If Beckham is only going to be eligible at 3b, will he really get picked this high? I own him and am thinking that if he isn’t a MI I should protect someone else Posted 08/19 at 08:32 AM
Big Mike said...
I don’t really think this is an accurate draft, mainly because of the “one closer” thing. It just seems silly. And Reynolds going at Number 5 seems even sillier. Posted 08/19 at 11:34 AM
Jeff - Beyond the Boxscore said...
Big Mike—- The list is accurate taking into the context of the draft. Now if your league has different settings, you can pull out the hitters, SP and RP and use them for an initial ranking. I did an analysis of my take at: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/8/18/993552/thoughts-on-a-2010-fantasy The one RP carries way too much weight and that is why they may have been drafted too high. Posted 08/19 at 12:02 PM
Jason B said...
In perusing the rosters my gut instinct was that I liked the Unruhlies best, followed closely by the Hamboners.
Posted 08/19 at 02:35 PM
Dan's Dukie Blasters said...
In defense of the Jeter and Abreu picks: -In retrospect I should have gone w/ Rollins for the steals, or just basically punt the position and wait for value. But Jeter provides the position scarcity, consistency and multi-cat skills I was looking for early. Admittedly I played it ultra-conservative at the beginning. After round 4 I switched gears and picked up a couple awesome arms in rounds 5 and 6. And I am extremely happy with Figgins/Napoli to round out my lineup. Jeff - my take was that the one closer only rule lowered the value of great closers, or rather all closers. In a normal league you’d presumably draft 2 closers. The difference between #1 and #10 beats the difference between #1 and #20. So the relative value of a batter or SP becomes higher. Posted 08/19 at 04:14 PM
Follow up said...
Sorry, that should read “The difference between #1 and #20 beats the difference between #1 and #10.” In other words, the marginal value of a great closer is less. I don’t know how many of you play fantasy football, but if you were in a league that started 2 TE instead of the usual 1, wouldn’t that elevate your valuation of all TE, as opposed to reducing it? Someone like Heath Miller would get drafted in pretty much every league, and someone like Jason Witten would have to go earlier due to increased demand. So, why should going from 2-3 closer spots to 1 increase the demand for a top closer? By all means, if you have a closer you love, take him. But I really don’t think the unusual rules cause a “paradigm shift.” Posted 08/19 at 04:26 PM
noseeum said...
@Follow up I think you may be missing the point. Yes, the difference between #1 and #20 is bigger than #1 and #10, but the difference between #10 and #20 is much smaller than the difference between #1 and #10. That’s why the demand for a top guy increases. When each team has two or three closers, the impact of the top guys is smaller. It’s a great advantage for the teams at the top, but you have a reasonably good chance of being middle of the pack in saves if you wait to buy cheaper closers with upside because there’s not a huge amount of difference between closers #11 through #25, say. In a 10 team league with only 1 closer, if you don’t grab a top stud, you may end up with a very good closer, but you’ll still only score 1 point in saves. Posted 08/20 at 01:32 PM
Chad Burke said...
Closers basically give you saves and saves from year to year are completely unpredictable. If you look at closer rankings from the start of this year and the top-10 closer from the preseason that has fallen the furthest is probably Lidge, who still has 23 saves and, at least for now, a closing gig. The variation between the guys in the next 10 from the preseason is a much wider range with some guys like Bell, Broxton, Wilson, Street being top notch this year down to guys like BJ Ryan and Kerry Wood who have really struggled. If you know that nobody else is going to take more than one closer there is no rush since at worst you end up with the #10 guy who is just as likely to be solid in saves for you as a top guy. It’s like drafting kickers in football when it comes to a thing like this. Sure you want to get the accurate kicker on a good offense but you could end up with a guy on a crappy offense leading the league by a wide margin. FWIW, I don’t think there’ll be many that will defend that Justin Upton pick at the 11th pick and not because people don’t think he’s a good player. It is ridiculous to pick him there because there is no way he isn’t still there when your next set of picks came around at the 3rd/4th turn and he’s probably a bit of an early pick at that spot. You could have safely picked him a heck of a lot later and still gotten him and upgraded that squad at another position. Posted 08/20 at 09:35 PM
blue said...
I see people raging on david wright. He just isnt hitting home runs because pitchers are not giving him anything to hit cuz if they walk him his protection is gary sheffield…next year if jerry manuel was smart he would put carlos beltran behind him. If this happens I could easily see him getting 25+ home runs. As much as I like upton seeing as he is one of my keepers…along with wright…11 is a little high for him, I personaly think he is a 3rd rounder. I dont see how CC would fall that low, especially that far behind grienke Can someone tell me how my keepers look in a 20 team mix league?... david wright, jose reyes, jacoby ellsbury, johan santana, and jake peavy Posted 08/22 at 11:05 PM
Matt said...
Going by this my team in a 16 team Dynasty League looks good for next year. CA M.Napoli 6.30 (2011) I also have B.Abreu and H.Bell but being a Dynasty League, I won’t keep either. Posted 08/23 at 10:17 PM
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