Friday, March 26, 2010
Twisting Oliver: Off-the-radar batters our projections love
Posted by Jeremiah Oshan at 4:10amCody Ross will be a top-50 offensive player. Rajai Davis will steal more bases than all but two players. Dan Uggla will be one of 15 players to drive in 100 runs. Nelson Cruz will be worthy of a top-40 pick. Alex Rios will re-emerge from his season-long slump.
These are just some of the bold predictions THT Forecasts (aka Oliver) makes about offensive performances in the upcoming season. Last week, I shared some techniques for getting at this kind of information. Now, I'll be going a little more in-depth into the kind of numbers we can expect from some players who will likely be undervalued at your fantasy draft. In this column, I'm using a basic formula that gives players one point for every run, RBI, walk and single; two points for doubles and steals; three points for triples; and four points for homers. I also subtracted one point for a caught stealing and another half-point for every strikeout.
One thing to keep in mind during all of this: Don't get caught up in the actual numbers. Oliver tends to be a little more pessimistic (realistic?) than many of the other projections out there (ESPN has 34 players batting at least .300, while Oliver has just 13). It's a fool's errand to compare one player's predicted level of performance in Oliver directly against one from another source. What matters is relative performances, how a player fares in one projection system against others in the same system. (If you really want to get wild, try taking averages from multiple systems and comparing the averages.)
I know it's been said many times before, but the key to a successful draft isn't just the ability to find diamonds in the rough or hitting home runs with every early pick. The goal is to avoid blowing early picks and making the most of the late ones. With that in mind, I figured it was worth going through several levels of players from guys being taken in the first five rounds all the way down to guys who are sometimes going undrafted.
Top of the draft bargains
Cruz: Statistics-minded owners have had their eye on the Rangers outfielder for a while now, but that doesn't necessarily mean all his value has evaporated. In Yahoo leagues, Cruz is still going around No. 67. ESPN has him ranked as the 19th-best outfielder. Oliver wouldn't bat an eye if you took him in the top 40, though. With a projected line of 35 homers, 100 RBIs, 13 stolen bases and 86 runs, there are few players who will produce better across the board. Oliver is a little less excited about his batting average (.263), but that's a small price to pay.
Curtis Granderson: I know what you're thinking: "How's a guy projected to go in the 50s supposed to be undervalued?" He produces like a top-20 player, that's how. Yahoo drafters have been taking him at No. 56 on average. If Oliver's right, taking him there would be an absolute steal. His 25 homers and 90 RBIs are just the tip of the iceberg. Factoring in his 15 steals and 95 runs, that .264 batting average will be only a slight nuisance.
Ben Zobrist: Obviously, the Rays utility infielder is no longer a super-sleeper the way he was last year, when he went undrafted in many leagues. Still, owners seem to be treating his breakout season with a little trepidation, taking him in the early 40s in Yahoo leagues despite being position eligible at 2B, SS and OF, and ESPN ranking him as the seventh-best 2B option. Amazingly, Oliver deems him a good value even at those lofty heights. My ranking system pegs him as the 13th-best offensive player, two spots behind Chase Utley and seven spots ahead of Ian Kinsler (the first- and third-best 2B options). Oliver likes him for 25 homers, 89 RBIs, 13 steals and 93 runs scored, despite predicting a more than 30-point drop in batting average.
Safe bets in the middle rounds
Uggla: Yahoo owners have been taking him in the mid-70s, while ESPN ranks him as the 12th-best 2B. Generally seen as more of a fallback than leading man, Oliver thinks he'll be a premier source of power at his position. Oliver says he'll be the fifth-best 2B overall and could break the top 30 offensive players, while being one of only 16 players to hit 30 homers and one of 15 to drive in 100 runs (and the only 2B to do either of those).
Adam Dunn: His measly batting average constantly drives down his draft position, but Oliver definitely thinks his performance in other areas makes him well worth the hit. ESPN rates him as the 14th-best 1B and he's being drafted in the mid-70s at Yahoo. Oliver puts him among the top 25 hitters, well ahead of such first basemen as Kevin Youkilis and Joey Votto. Oliver seems to think he's gotten his strikeouts under control ("just" 159), while maintaining his ability to draw walks (a league-leading 106) and not ruin your batting average (.252). He's also pegged at 36 homers and 100 RBIs.
Lance Berkman: Just one year ago, the Astros first baseman was being drafted around the same time as Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder. Now, he's falling into the mid-90s in Yahoo drafts and ESPN ranks him below the likes of Billy Butler and Kendry Morales. Oliver thinks he'll produce more like the top-10 first baseman to which we've grown accustomed. His projected 24 homers and 87 RBIs don't necessarily jump off the page, but if your league looks at walks (92) or OBP (.387), his numbers start to look a little better. Basically, he's Pablo Sandoval 60 picks later.
Finally, some legitimate sleepers
Ross: Will the Marlins outfielder be the best offensive center fielder in all of baseball? I have a hard time buying that, but who am I to argue with Oliver? In any case, you won't have to take him nearly that high in order to get plenty of value. He's not even being drafted in the top 200 at Yahoo and ESPN ranks him as the 53rd-best OF. Oliver, meanwhile, projects a line of 29 homers, 97 RBIs and 40 doubles, which, using my points system, makes him the 19th-highest-scoring batter. Even using a standard 5x5 measure I created, {R+RBI+(HRx2)+(SBx2)}xAVG, he's still the 37th-best hitter. Taking a late-round flyer on Ross seems like a no-brainer.
Franklin Gutierrez: The Mariners outfielder made a name for himself by registering one of the greatest defensive seasons in history. Unless you play in a particularly odd fantasy league, though, this is of no value. So, it's understandable that he's out of the top 200 picks in Yahoo leagues and ranked as the 47th-best OF by ESPN. Oliver likes him as the 78th-best hitter using my points system and at 72 with that 5x5 calculation. His production in any one area won't win categories, but a projected line of 20 HRs, 78 RBIs, 14 SBs and 79 runs is pretty much on par with the projections of Bobby Abreu and Raul Ibanez.
Rajai Davis: Owners who were paying attention last year unquestionably remember his second-half performance in which he stole 30 bases, hit .325 and scored 46 runs. Apparently, not many of those people have much faith that it was a sign that he had finally figured it all out as he's being drafted toward the very end of most Yahoo drafts and is the 48th-ranked OF at ESPN. Oliver scoffs at those numbers and projects robust enough stats to place him at No. 81 among batters in my points system and all the way up to No. 49 in my 5x5 ranking. Oliver suggests 46 steals (behind only Jacoby Ellsbury and Michael Bourn), a .277 batting average and 80 runs, or across-the-board production on par with B.J. Upton.
Rios: If there's one player who was a bigger disappointment than the White Sox outfielder last season, I can't think of him. Once considered a possible keeper in many leagues, he's now being drafted in the 160s at Yahoo and is the 35th-ranked OF at ESPN. Granted, those aren't bargain-basement numbers. Still, if Oliver's right, he's a good gamble. In both my ranking systems, he's among the top 60 batters with a line of 15 homers, 75 RBIs, 21 steals and 82 runs or the rough equivalent of Shane Victorino about 70 picks later.
Other stray observations
- One position that Oliver seems rather down on is catcher. Other than Joe Mauer, no one ranks in the top 50 and only Victor Martinez and Brian McCann crack the top 100 batters. If there's a draft strategy there, I'd suggest grabbing Mauer early or waiting until much later to grab someone like Mike Napoli around the 14th round or Ryan Doumit around the 18th. Both players project at levels similar to Matt Weiters, who's being picked at No. 38 in Yahoo, and both project much better than Russell Martin, who's generally the fifth catcher off the board. Believe it or not, Jorge Posada projects as the fourth-best catcher (although I'd say he's only worth the pick if he falls well beyond his average Yahoo pick of 141).
- Generally speaking, I'd say Oliver is not particularly fond of drafting speed merchants in the higher rounds. Some of the players our projection system seems to be a bit wary of in relation to where they're being picked include Ichiro (average Yahoo pick: 29; my points ranking: 58); Denard Span (AYP: 80; MR: 114); and Brian Roberts (AYP: 46; MR: 132).
- In case you're curious, Hanley Ramirez is the top player using my 5x5 calculations and Albert Pujols comes out on top when I'm using points.
Jeremiah Oshan is a Seattle-based writer and editor, who's always interested in refining his methods. He's been playing fantasy baseball long enough to remember using the USA Today newspaper as the go-to source for stats, and quite frankly can't see the fun in streaming.
“In case you’re curious, Hanley Ramirez is the top player using my 5x5 calculations and Albert Pujols comes out on top when I’m using points.”
Do your calculations utilize VORP? Are these guys as valuable compared to other guys at their positions as Mauer is at catcher (even though Mauer might not score as high in absolute terms)?