Reference

We write about a lot of baseball subjects at THT: player and game trends, commentary, baseball history. We’ve even been known to rant about steroids once in a while. But we are perhaps best known for our baseball research. The following is an incomplete list of our best-known work; articles that broke new ground or can be used as references for others. It is presented here for your convenience. And don’t worry—this little website of ours won’t go away anytime soon, nor will we become a subscription-only site. These free articles are here to stay for your long-term enjoyment.

It’s a long list, so we’ve broken it into sections. Click on a link to go directly to one:

If there are other articles you feel should be included on this list, please fill out our contact form with the appropriate link.

Sabermetrics and baseball stats

(Link)
The hierarchy of sabermetric analysis (Sal Baxamusa/Apr, 2008)
Adjusting statistics (Craig Burley/Mar, 2004)
A treatise on true talent (David Gassko/Jul, 2009)
The one about sample size (Colin Wyers/Jun, 2009)
Tony LaRussa and the search for significance (Dan Fox/Nov, 2005)

Magic closer dust (Aaron Gleeman/Apr, 2004)
The truth about productive outs (Larry Mahnken/May, 2004) … and the follow-up column
Sophomore slumps (Aaron Gleeman/Mar, 2004)
How not to use statistics: why David Ortiz isn’t MVP (Larry Mahnken/Sept, 2005)
Re-examining 300 (Aaron Gleeman/Jul, 2004)

Scouts and stats (Dan Fox/Jul, 2005)
Poisoning the well (Colin Wyers/Jun, 2009)

Regression to the mean (Dave Studeman/Jan, 2007)
What’s past is prologue (more about regression) (Colin Wyers/Jul, 2009)
Why does Pujols regress to the mean? (Colin Wyers/Aug, 2009)
Does reliever use lead to poor subsequent performance? (another example of regression) (Mitchel Lichtman/Dec, 2007)

Pitching Runs Created (David Gassko/Jan, 2006)
Part One
Part Two

How well can we predict ERA? (Colin Wyers/Jun, 2009)
Introducing PrOPS (JC Bradbury/May, 2005)
Expected BABIP (Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix/Dec, 2008)
Moving beyond ERA+ (Sal Baxamusa/Mar, 2007)
Databases for sabermetricians (Colin Wyers/Nov, 2009)
wOBA Calculator (JT Jordan/Nov, 2010)

Fantasy Baseball

(Link)
Are saves predictable? (Derek Carty/Feb 2008)
Asymmetric dominance and trade proposals (Marco Fujimoto/Mar 2009)
Category influence (Michael Lerra/Dec 2008)
Confessions of a market skeptic (Derek Ambrosino/May 2011)
The endowment effect and trade proposals (Marco Fujimoto/Mar 2009)
Follow-the-leader strategies for the Fantasy GM (Patrick DiCaprio/Jul 2007)

Fortify the Strong or Build Up the Weak? (Michael Lerra/Oct 2008)
I don’t need to know my role; I know my rights (Derek Ambrosino/Aug 2010)
Introducing: xW, xBABIP, xLOB%, xHR/FB, and more (Derek Carty/Jan 2007)
The Kemp Speed Theory: Do bigger players slow down earlier? (Derek Carty/Oct 2009)

Valuing players with your E.Y.E.S. (Jeffrey Gross/Feb 2011)
What makes a successful fantasy GM (Patrick DiCaprio/Jun 2007)
Why head-to-head? (Derek Ambrosino/Jan 2011)
xWHIP and eFIP (Jeffrey Gross/May2011)

Batters vs. Pitchers

(Link)
When a pitcher meets a hitter (David Gassko/Jun, 2010)
And here’s the pitch (Dan Fox/Sep, 2005)
The importance of strike one (Craig Burley/Oct, 2004)
The importance of strike one, part two (Craig Burley/Oct, 2004)
Three and Oh (John Walsh/Feb, 2006)
Handling 3-0 situations (Sal Baxamusa/Jul, 2007)

Long/Short Plate Appearances (Sal Baxamusa/Sep, 2007)
The long and short of plate appearances
It’s up to the hitter

Pitch Sequencing (Sal Baxamusa/Dec, 2006)
The memory remains
More on pitch sequences
Thanks for the memories

When to walk (Mitchel Lichtman/May, 2008)
Part One
Part Two

Hit ‘em where they ain’t–if you can (John Walsh/May, 2008)
Going the other way (John Walsh/Apr, 2007)
The advantage of batting lefthanded (John Walsh/Nov, 2007)
It makes sense to swing (John Walsh/Sep, 2007)
Which pitches benefit from being thrown back-to-back? (Josh Kalk/Feb, 2009)
Why fly balls go one way and grounders go the other (Matt Lentzer/Jul, 2007)

Team offense

(Link)
How Teams Score (Dave Studeman/August, 2004)
How teams can avoid being shut out (Sal Baxamusa/Nov, 2006)

Evaluating batters

(Link)
How to evaluate hitters (Dave Studeman/Jan, 2008)
What are little runs made of? (Colin Wyers/Sep, 2009)
Bases and out ad nauseum (Brandon Heipp/Apr, 2008)
Factoring in the double play (John Walsh/Feb, 2009)

The great run estimator shootout (Colin Wyers/Apr, 2009)
Part One
Part Two

Exploring plate discipline (David Appelman/Feb, 2006)
Part One
Part Two

Baserunning

(Link)
Beat ‘em like they stole something (Aaron Gleeman/May, 2004)
Beat ‘em like they stole something (Part Two) (Aaron Gleeman/May, 2004)
Adjusting steals for win value (Dan Turkenkopf/Jun, 2009)

Circle the Wagons (Dan Fox/Jul, 2005)
Part One
Part Two
Part Three

Base stealer intangibles (John Walsh/Jan, 2006)
Base stealer intangibles, Part 2 (John Walsh/Jan, 2006)

Lineups

(Link)
Constructing Lineups (Dave Studeman/Mar, 2006)
Batting the pitcher eighth (John Beamer/Oct, 2007)
Philosophy of batting leadoff (John Walsh/Mar, 2010)
Lineup balance (David Gassko/Dec, 2006)

Preventing Runs

(Link)
Know your no-hitters (Sal Baxamusa/May, 2010)
Which pitchers work fast, and are their defenses helped? (Mike Fast/Jun, 2008)

Pitching

(Link)
Batted balls and DIPS (David Gassko/Aug, 2005)
Confessions of a DIPS Apostate (Mike Fast/Mar, 2009)
How much control do pitchers have? (John Walsh/Dec, 2008)
Another look at DIPS (JC Bradbury/May, 2005)
DIPS 3.0 (David Gassko/Feb, 2006)
DIPS, Again (David Gassko/Jun, 2006)
Uncovering DIPS (David Gassko/Jan, 2007)
Explaining LIPS (David Gassko/Jun, 2009)

Ground ball pitchers (David Gassko/May, 2006)
Dusty Baker and pitch counts (David Gassko/May, 2006)
Have pitchers become more fragile? (David Gassko/Oct, 2007)

Do strikeout pitchers last longer? (David Gassko/Feb, 2008)
Maybe walks are key to longevity? (David Gassko/Feb, 2008)
Perhaps longevity is all about pitch counts (David Gassko/Mar, 2008)
Should pitchers waste pitches? (Dan Turkenkopf/May, 2009)

Bullpen

(Link)
A short history of the bullpen (Steve Treder/Aug, 2004)
Relief UsagePatterns (Dave Studeman/Feb, 2005)
A history of the LOOGY: Part One Part Two (Steve Treder/Apr, 2005)

Pitching mechanics

(Link)
A mechanical model of pitching (Matt Lentzer/Oct, 2008)
How release points matter (Matt Lentzer/Nov, 2008)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (Carlos Gomez/Feb, 2007)
Rich Harden (Carlos Gomez/Mar, 2007)
Mark Prior (Carlos Gomez/Apr, 2007)
Carlos Zambrano (Carlos Gomez/May, 2007)
Josh Beckett (Carlos Gomez/May, 2007)
Dontrelle Willis (Carlos Gomez/Jul, 2007)
Jake Peavy (Carlos Gomez/Aug, 2007)

Pitchf/x

(Link)
PDF File: Mike Fast’s Intro to PITCHf/x (from the THT Annual 2010).
An early pitch identification tutorial (John Walsh/Sep, 2007)
The Internet cried a bit when you wrote that on it (Mike Fast/Jun, 2010)

How fast should a fastball be? (John Walsh/Apr, 2008)
Lose a tick, gain a tick (Mike Fast/Apr, 2010)
Does the stretch cost a pitcher speed on his fastball? (Mike Fast/Apr, 2010)
How fatigue affects a pitcher’s fastball (Josh Kalk/Jun, 2008)
A preliminary aging curve for fastball speed (Josh Kalk/May, 2008)

The four basic pitches: an analysis (John Walsh/Nov, 2007)
Searching for the game’s best pitch (John Walsh/Feb, 2008)
Anatomy of a pitch: curveball (Josh Kalk/May, 2008)
Anatomy of a pitch: slider (Josh Kalk/May, 2008)
Inside the changeup (Jon Hale/May, 2009)
The inside changeup: courage or folly? (John Walsh/Jul, 2008)
The elusive knuckleball (John Walsh/Nov, 2007)
Why do sinking fastballs cause ground balls? (Chris Constancio/Aug, 2007)

A look at spray angles off the bat (Max Marchi/May, 2009)
When to guard the lines (Max Marchi/Jul, 2009)
Where to shift, pitch-by-pitch (Jon Hale/Aug, 2009)

Do relief pitchers suffer from pitching back-to-back days? (Josh Kalk/Apr, 2008)
The injury zone (Josh Kalk/Feb, 2009)
Does release point impact a pitcher’s success? (Josh Kalk/Sep, 2008)
Pitching to the corners (Max Marchi/Apr, 2009)
What makes a home run pitch? (Jon Hale/Apr, 2009)
Why it’s important to include the count on pitch-specific analysis (Max Marchi/Dec, 2009)

Fielding

(Link)
Infield Defense: the Basics (John Walsh, May, 2007)
The basics of infield defense
Infield defense, part two

Simple Zone Rating (Colin Wyers/May, 2009)
Infield
Outfield

TotalZone (Sean Smith)
TotalZone Intro (Jan/2008)
TotalZone Part Two (Mar, 2008)
TotalZone takes on the minors (Feb, 2009)

Using Gameday to build a fielding metric (Peter Jensen/Mar, 2009)
Part One
Part Two
Part Three

Ghosts in the outfield (Michael Humphreys/Aug, 2007)
Doing the math on outfield defense (Michael Humphreys/Aug, 2007)
Measuring range (David Gassko/Sep, 2005)
How to rate outfield arms (John Walsh/Feb, 2006)
Approaching Catcher Defense (David Gassko)
More detailed (WOWY) analysis of catcher skills Max Marchi/Mar, 2010)
Left-handed catchers (John Walsh/Apr, 2006)
Left-handed catchers, Part Two (John Walsh/Apr, 2006)
Fielding aging curves (Tom Tango/Feb, 2008)

Batted Ball Analysis

(Link)
Never swat an infield fly (the beginnings of batted ball analysis) (Dave Studeman/June, 2004)
An early look at line drives and BABIP (Dave Studeman/Mar, 2005)
Pictures of batted balls (Dave Studeman/Jan, 2006)

Follow up to “Pictures of batted balls” and the first batted balls tables (Dave Studeman/Jan, 2006)
How do you like your data?
Pitcher batted ball tables

Home run classifications (Greg Rybarczyk/Apr, 2007)

Why did home run rates jump in 1994? (Tom Tango/Feb, 2008)
Defensive systems and run values of batted balls (Dave Studeman/Jan, 2005)
What’s a batted ball to do? (Colin Wyers/Feb, 2009)
When is a fly ball a line drive? (Colin Wyers/Dec, 2009)

During the 2009 season Dave Studeman wrote a weekly column called the Batted Ball Report. It was a subscription service with a lot of in-season commentary and new research, but you can download all the reports in this single PDF file.

Pythagoras and run distribution

(Link)
Pondering Pythagoras (David Gassko/May, 2007)
Ten things about one-run games (Dave Studeman/June, 2005)
Is a run saved worth more than a run scored? (Colin Wyers/Dec, 2008)
Outsmarting Pythagoras (Sal Baxamusa/Sep, 2007)
Inconsistency is better (David Gassko/Apr, 2006)

Consistency and run/game distribution (Sal Baxamusa/Dec, 2007)
Consistency is key
Consistency is key, part two

Win Probability Added

(Link)
The one about win probability (Dave Studeman)
The WPA Inquirer (Dave Studeman/Jun, 2009)
A different use of WPA (Dave Studeman/Sept, 2007)

Crucial Situations/Leverage Index (Tom Tango/May, 2006)
Part One
Part Two
Part Three

Win Probability Game Graphs (Dave Studeman/Apr, 2006)
Developments in the baseball blogosphere
The game of the century

What make a game exciting? (Max Marchi/Dec, 2010)
Drama index and Postseason Probability Added (Dave Studeman/Dec, 2008)
The drama index
Postseason probability added

Postseason

(Link)
So, Billy, what does work in the postseason? (Vinay Kumar/May, 2004)
Does experience matter in the postseason? (David Gassko/Nov, 2008)
Do experienced players perform better in the postseason? (David Gassko/Nov, 2008)
Momentum in the postseason (Dave Studeman/Sep, 2005)

Top World Series Games of all time (Chris Jaffe/Nov, 2007)
Game One
Game Two
Game Three
Game Four
Game Five
Game Six
Game Seven

Ten worst World Series games of all time (Chris Jaffe/Oct, 2009)

Umpires

(Link)
How much effect does an umpire have? (Colin Wyers/May, 2009)
The outside corner–a quick history and overview of umpiring (David Gassko/Feb, 2007)
Strike Zone: Fact vs. Fiction (John Walsh/Jul, 2007)
The eye of the umpire (John Walsh/Jul, 2007)
The compassionate umpire (John Walsh/Apr, 2010)
A Zone of their own (Jon Hale/Nov, 2007)

Minor Leagues

(Link)
The role of experience in major league equivalencies (Chris Constancio/Sep, 2007)
Minor league run environments (Justin Inaz/Feb, 2010)

College Ball

(Link)
Do college ground ball rates tell us anything? (Jeff Sackmann/Feb, 2008)
Testing college scouting reports (Jeff Sackmann/Apr, 2008)
Analyzing college fielding stats (Jeff Sackmann/Apr, 2008)
Aging patterns among college players: Hitters Pitchers (Jeff Sackmann/Mar, 2010)

Ballparks

(Link)
Batted balls and park effects (David Gassko/Mar, 2008)
Winning in extreme environments (Dan Fox/Jul, 2005)
Drivers and changes in home field advantage (Tom Meagher/Mar, 2005)
Home run park factors (Greg Rybarczyk/Jun, 2007)
Ranking the ballparks (Woody Studenmund/Aug, 2010)

Baseball management

(Link)
An approach to rating General Managers (David Gassko)
Inside the mind of Brian Sabean (Dave Studeman/Nov, 2004)

Rating Managers (Matthew Namee/June, 2009)
Manager Aging Patterns (Chris Jaffe/Mar, 2007)
Managerial Golden and Dark Ages (Chris Jaffe/Oct, 2009)
Managerial remarriages (Chris Jaffe/Nov, 2009)
History of mid-season manager changes (Chris Jaffe/Dec, 2009)

Excerpts from “Evaluating Baseball’s Managers (Chris Jaffe/Nov, 2009)
Intro
Billy Martin
Pat Moran
Charles Comiskey
Dusty Baker
Mike Scioscia and Terry Francona (Chris Jaffe/Apr, 2010)

The business of baseball

(Link)
Quantifying the market size advantage in MLB (JC Bradbury/May, 2004)
Forbes franchise valuations (John Beamer/Apr, 2008)
Salary per WSAB (Dave Studeman/Feb, 2006)
2007 Net Win Shares Value (Dave Studeman/Oct, 2007)
The Free Agent Cycle (Dave Studeman/Nov, 2006)
All about arbitration (Dave Studeman/Jan, 2005)

Franchise Valuation (John Beamer/2007-08)
Part One
Part Two
Part Three
Part Four

The economics of winning in baseball (Vince Gennaro/Mar, 2007)
Part One
Part Two
Part Three

The basics of setting a player’s worth (Colin Wyers/Feb, 2009)
The Root, Part One
Part Two
Part Three

Measuring the dollar value of a player (Vince Gennaro/Nov, 2005)
Part One
Part Two
Part Three
The Postseason Effect
The last piece of the puzzle

A look at player agents (Maury Brown/Jan, 2006)
Part One
Part Two

Projecting players

(Link)
Projection Roundtable (David Gassko/Aug, 2006)
Part One
Part Two
Part Three
Part Four
Part Five

How do baseball players age? (Mitchel Lichtman/Dec, 2009)
Part One
Part Two

The Marcel Monkey projections “in real time” (Sal Baxamusa/Feb, 2008)
Career Projections 2010 (David Gassko/Feb, 2010)

Ranking Players

(Link)
How to measure a player’s value (Colin Wyers/Jan, 2009)
Part One
Part Two
Part Three

Measuring the change in league quality over time (David Gassko/Apr, 2007)
Part One
Part Two
Part Three
Part Four

Pennants Added (David Gassko/Apr, 2007)
Pennants Added Revisited (David Gassko/Apr, 2007)
What is the value of a postseason win? (David Gassko/Jun, 2008)

Replacement level defined (Sean Smith/Nov, 2008)
Jonathan Papelbon and replacement level (David Gassko/Sep, 2006)
Brian Downing vs. Jim Rice (the foundation of WAR) (Sean Smith/Jan, 2009)

Historical Win Shares Above Bench Rankings (Dave Studeman/Jan, 2007)
The Top 40 everyday players
The next 40
WSAB pairs
The top 40 pitchers

WAR vs. Win Shares (Dave Studeman/Sept, 2009)
Michael Schell’s “Baseball’s All-Time Best Sluggers” (Dave Studeman/May, 2005)
(You can dig into Schell’s list of sluggers here.)

The best and worst all-time double play hitters (John Walsh/Mar, 2009)

Win Shares

(Link)
Using Win Shares to rank historical trades (Dave Studeman/Jan, 2005)
Part One
Part Two, with some corrections
Smoltz for Alexander
The biggest deals of all time

Win Shares age (Dave Studeman/Feb, 2006 and Oct, 2007)
What happened between 1977 and 1982?
The youth of America

Baseball History

(Link)
Graphing the past (Dave Studeman/July, 2004)
The impact of media on how we watch baseball (Dave Studeman/July, 2005)
The bonus babies (Steve Treder/Nov, 2004)

Historical hitting by position (David Gassko/Aug, 2007)
Pinch hitting specialists (Steve Treder/Feb, 2006)
The four greatest home run hitters of all time: a video analysis of their swings (Carlos Gomez/Aug, 2007)
The flukes that flopped (Brandon Isleib/Feb, 2008)
Does obscurity hurt your Hall of Fame chances? (Brandon/Isleib/Mar, 2008)

The Value Production Standings How have teams ranked in player development? (Steve Treder/2006/2007)
1946-1950
1951-1955
1956-1960
1961-1965
1966-1970
1971-1975
1976-1980
1981-1985
1986-1989
1990-1993
1994-1997
1998-2001
2001-2004
2005-2007

Third Base: the Crossroads (Steve Treder/Nov, 2005)
Part one
Part two
Part three
Part four
Part five

A league divided—what if the majors had always had divisions and unbalanced schedules? (Brandon Isleib/Nov, 2008)
1901-1925
1926-1952
1953-1968
1969-1981
1982-1993

Starting Pitcher Leverage (Chris Jaffe/Apr, 2007)
Leverage background and career leverage leaders
Single season leverage leaders
The value of leveraging starting pitchers
Pitching platoon leveraging
Pitcher platoon leveraging data
Managers and leveraging starting pitchers
Leveraging starting pitchers over the eras

Individual players

(Link)
Carlos Bernier (Steve Treder/Aug, 2004)
The forgotten legacy of Bucky Walters (Eric Seidman/May, 2008
Bobo Newsom (Steve Treder/Jun, 2004)
An interview with George Brunet’s left arm (Steve Treder/Jan, 2005)
Dave Kingman (Steve Treder/Apr, 2005)
Bob Millers (Steve Treder/Sep, 2005)
Rocky Nelson (Steve Treder/Apr, 2006)
Walt Bond (Steve Treder/Feb, 2007)
Steve Dalkowski (Steve Treder/May, 2007)
Leon Wagner (Steve Treder/May, 2008)

The Hall of Fame

(Link)
The grand national conversation (Chris Jaffe/Sep, 2008)
Rules of thumb for Hall of Fame voting (Chris Jaffe/Jan, 2008)
How Joe DiMaggio changed Cooperstown voting (Chris Jaffe/Jun, 2008)
Rating the BBWAA (Part One) (Chris Jaffe/Jul, 2008)
Rating the BBWAA (Part Two) (Chris Jaffe/Jul, 2008)

Other Cool Stuff

(Link)
Do veteran players know how to win? (Dave Studeman/Jul, 2008)
Does momentum exist? (Tom Tango/Oct, 2008)
Baseball ethics polling (Dave Studeman/Aug, 2008)
The Guttridge/Wang trade model (Adam Guttridge/Jun, 2009)
Why the Cubs World Series drought isn’t that big a deal (Brandon Isleib/Jan, 2009)
The odds of hitting a cycle (Jeff Sackmann/Jul, 2010)

Is the American League really superior? (Mitchel Lichtman/Jul, 2006)
Part One
Part Two
Part Three

Rules and quirks of the game (John Beamer/Jan, 2008)
Rules and quirks
More rules and quirks

Does size matter? (David Gassko/Aug, 2006)
Part One
Part Two
Part Three
Part Four
Part Five
Part Six